On July 26, 2026, The Economist published an interview with Elon Musk, in which he candidly stated that China “is very likely to become a leader in the AI field at some point in the future,” adding that even if the United States prohibits Chinese models domestically, it would be difficult to block this trend, effectively questioning the long-term effect of technological containment on the global computing landscape. At the same time, from July 24 to 25, Iran and Oman held multiple rounds of deputy foreign minister-level talks in Tehran to negotiate a security passage mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson described the discussions as “productive and making certain progress,” with this strait accounting for about one third of global maritime oil transport, making it a core choke point affecting crude oil risk premiums. These seemingly unrelated pieces of news point to two macro variables that are being reassessed: first, the technological power dynamics of the AI era and the sustainability of the premium on dollar technology assets; second, the security margins of key energy corridors and the pricing method for disruptions in crude oil supply. When anticipated changes occur simultaneously in both technology and energy, cross-sovereign assets such as BTC, ETH, and dollar-denominated on-chain assets, which have relatively lower correlation with traditional country risks, will inevitably be repriced as hedging tools or leverage instruments in the global portfolio through recalculated risk premiums and shifts in capital allocation preferences.

Expectations of China Leading AI: Redrawing the Technological Landscape

Musk directly expressed the judgment that “China is very likely to become a leader in the AI field” during the interview with The Economist, emphasizing that this comes from a frontline decision-maker deeply involved in projects like xAI and Tesla’s autonomous driving, rather than an abstract assessment from academia or policy circles. In recent years, the United States has imposed multiple rounds of export controls on chips and high-end computing equipment, attempting to lock down China's high-end computing capabilities; however, Musk pointed out in the same interview that even if the U.S. bans Chinese models domestically, it cannot stop China from catching up and surpassing in AI, essentially acknowledging that the marginal effects of traditional technological containment tools are declining. With ongoing investment from China in computing infrastructure, research and development of large models, and practical applications, forming a complete industrial chain and a huge domestic demand market, this statement equates to pushing the expectation that “AI leadership may shift from a unipolar U.S. to a competitive U.S.-China dynamic or even a Chinese lead” into the realm of asset pricing.

Once the macro variable of “technological leadership expectations” shifts, the global capital allocation consideration among U.S. tech stocks, Chinese tech assets, and so-called “technology-neutral assets” will change: the premium on U.S. technology will no longer be viewed as irreplaceable, the valuation discount on Chinese technology may narrow partially, and funds sensitive to regulation and country risk will be more willing to hedge and diversify using cross-sovereign technology assets. In a world where China is stronger in AI and the effects of U.S. containment are limited, assets like BTC and ETH, which do not rely on a single country’s computing power, standards, and regulatory framework, will find their relative attractiveness coming not only from price volatility and liquidity but also from a functional premium of “avoiding U.S.-China technological regulatory games”: portfolio rotations between U.S. and Chinese technology assets are more likely to also position some BTC, ETH, and dollar-denominated on-chain assets for hedging against sudden increases in export controls, model bans, or capital project management policy risks. For the crypto market, what truly needs to be tracked is whether global capital shifts from a single bet on U.S. technology to a more balanced risk-diversifying allocation between U.S.-China technology and cross-sovereign technology assets like BTC and ETH.

Escalating Tech Cold War: Easing of Dollar Tech Premium

Viewing Musk’s judgment within the context of the long-term game between the U.S. and China surrounding chips, cloud computing, and AI models essentially questions whether “technological containment can permanently maintain U.S. technology leadership and valuation premiums.” When a core industry figure deeply involved with xAI and Tesla’s autonomous driving openly states in The Economist that “even banning Chinese AI models cannot prevent China from becoming an AI leader,” the market receives a signal: the tech cold war seems more like a war of attrition over computing power, data, and talent rather than a one-sided advantage that can be easily locked down through export controls. For global asset allocation, this shakes the previous assumption of the “U.S. tech stocks + dollar assets” exclusive premium—that as long as one bets on U.S. tech growth, combined with dollar credit, one can achieve the dominant beta of global risk assets.

In a situation where this premise is shaken, some high-risk appetite capital may no longer solely bet on the U.S. tech sector but may view “diversifying the technological power center” as a reason to spread risk, shifting some positions to cross-sovereign assets like BTC, ETH, and dollar-denominated on-chain assets. Historically, the high correlation between U.S. tech stocks and crypto assets during periods of loose liquidity has proven that both play roles as high-beta risk exposures; once the U.S. tech premium is repriced and the tech cold war increases regulatory and export control uncertainties, the medium- to long-term demand logic of on-chain assets as “de-geared settlement and value storage” tools will be reinforced—cross-border capital and developers will have more motivation to utilize BTC, ETH, and dollar-denominated on-chain tools to move funds and price risks under compliance, data sovereignty, and capital control pressures, thus enhancing the crypto market's ability to absorb risk premiums amid a reconfiguration of the global technological landscape.

Hormuz Game: New Signals for Crude Oil Risk Premiums

Unlike the long-term stalemate on the technology front, the multiple rounds of deputy foreign minister-level consultations between Iran and Oman held in Tehran from July 24 to 25, 2026, aimed at a “cooling attempt” for specific security passage mechanisms in the Strait of Hormuz. This strait, accounting for about one-third of global maritime oil transport, serves as a main channel for exporting crude oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf and has been the site of multiple tanker seizures, attacks, and military exercises; each escalation of tension raises the risk premium for crude oil supply interruptions and drives up oil prices. The current round of talks, evaluated by Iran as “productive and making certain progress,” signals to the market that coastal countries hope to reduce misjudgments and conflict risks: if a security passage mechanism can ultimately be partially established, the “Hormuz tail risk premium” embedded in global oil prices may retreat from high levels, subsequently affecting expectations regarding future inflation across various economies through its impact on energy costs.

From a pricing chain perspective, changes in energy prices first affect global inflation and nominal interest rates, then influence the valuation of risk assets through real interest rates. Historical experience shows that fluctuations in inflation and nominal/real interest rates have frequently restructured the pricing ranges of highly volatile assets such as stocks and crypto assets: a drop in crude oil risk premiums indicates that medium- to long-term inflation pressures are relatively manageable, corresponding to limited upward space for nominal and real interest rates, easing the discount rate pressures on risk assets, which is favorable for raising the valuation center and warming risk appetite for assets like BTC and ETH; conversely, if negotiations fail, tensions in Hormuz escalate again, and oil price risk premiums rise, inflation may be layered with another geopolitical premium, and the interest rate path will lean more toward “staying high for a long time,” suppressing capital's willingness to allocate toward high-volatility assets. For cross-sovereign assets like BTC, ETH, and dollar-denominated on-chain tools, such energy and interest rate shocks not only change their relative cost-effectiveness within global asset portfolios but also directly affect the weights of on-chain capital between the narratives of “inflation hedging” and “high-rate risk avoidance,” thus allowing Hormuz's security negotiations to become a key macro variable for re-pricing crypto asset risk premiums through the triple channels of crude oil risk premiums, inflation expectations, and real interest rates in the near future.

Under Dual Uncertainty: How Funds Shift Tracks

In an environment where the restructuring of technological power and the game over energy corridors are both on the rise, global asset portfolios are being rebalanced around three common risk exposures—technology growth, resources and commodities, and high-volatility on-chain assets. On one side is the “dollar tech” exposure represented by U.S. tech stocks and dollar assets; in the wake of Musk's public emphasis that China is likely to become an AI leader and that the effects of technological containment are limited, the long-standing narrative of its exclusive premium has been weakened, prompting some funds to consider reducing their dependence on single market tech valuations; on the other side are the energy corridor risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which, in light of Iranian and Omani negotiations being viewed as “productive but unclear in details,” make it difficult for crude oil supply interruption premiums to completely subside, thereby raising the importance of resource stocks and commodities exposure. Positioned between the two are cross-sovereign assets like BTC and ETH, which display high elasticity amidst changes in global liquidity, inflation, and interest rate expectations, allowing capital to potentially shift from “single dollar tech” to a triadic structure of “technology + resources + on-chain” to hedge against the combined risks of technological containment and energy shocks.

At the specific level of risk appetite and trading structures, this rebalancing is more directly manifested as rotation between themes and tools. In traditional markets, AI themes have sparked phases of concentrated fund flows in U.S. tech stocks, while resource stocks gained hedging demand amid rising energy uncertainties; in the on-chain world, there have been token trends surrounding AI narratives alternating with BTC’s “hedging narrative.” Under the current dual uncertainty, institutions and high-net-worth investors are more likely to dynamically allocate among AI theme stocks, resource stocks, on-chain AI narrative tokens, and BTC, combining gold, U.S. dollar cash, and BTC for hedging to seek a risk-return balance between the technology and energy front lines. In terms of trading structure, the crypto market has widely employed spot + options structures for BTC and ETH to manage high volatility exposures, alongside utilizing on-chain bookkeeping tools priced in U.S. dollars and some Asian currencies for cross-regional fund allocation and settlement, hedging against the regional divides and energy price spikes associated with technological sanctions in Hormuz; the next phase worth tracking is whether capital continues to use these structures to shift the uncertainty in technology and energy more towards a mid-term allocation tilt favoring cross-sovereign on-chain assets.

A New Positioning for Crypto Assets in a Multipolar World

Integrating the technological power landscape and energy corridor risks, the two threads point to the same conclusion: in a world where both technology and resources are moving towards multipolarity, the market demand for “decentralized, cross-sovereign” asset combinations is on the rise. Currently, Musk’s interview and the Iran-Oman negotiations remain at the level of statements and discussions, without the accompanying hard technical containment upgrades or operational mechanisms in Hormuz, yet they have begun to reshape investors' mid-term expectations regarding the dollar technology premium and crude oil risk premium. Within this framework, the positioning of BTC and ETH becomes dualistic: on one hand, they are incorporated into the “technology growth + computing power economy” narrative, forming the same risk preference chain as the acceleration of China’s AI industry and the re-pricing of U.S. tech stock valuations; on the other hand, in the context of heightened U.S.-China technology rivalry and increased uncertainty in energy arteries, they serve as cross-sovereign tools to hedge against technological sanctions, supply shocks, and regional capital controls. Complementing this is the continued strengthening of dollar-denominated on-chain bookkeeping assets and other mainstream on-chain settlement tools in cross-border fund allocation, serving as a “bridge” function from local currencies and stock oil assets to global on-chain positions. Key variables to monitor moving forward include whether the U.S. tightens restrictions on Chinese AI models and computing power further after Musk's statements, the actual support of Chinese industrial policies for domestic AI and on-chain applications, whether the future security situation in the Strait of Hormuz moves from negotiations to concrete mechanisms, and under these evolutions, the direction and intensity changes of BTC, ETH relative to Nasdaq tech stocks and crude oil prices, as these will determine whether crypto assets are priced as high-beta tech assets or more resilient macro risk hedging tools in a multipolar world.

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