Author: Jake Pahor

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Introduction: Australian trader Jake Pahor publicly shares his true holdings: 100% Bitcoin, zero altcoins. This is not faith; it is a choice made by an ordinary person with a full-time job who has to care for a family after suffering significant losses in the last cycle—complex strategies require time costs, while Bitcoin has outperformed almost all the altcoins he held in the last cycle. He uses a CSH scoring system for dynamic dollar-cost averaging: the lower the score, the more he buys, and the exit is predetermined in the plan. The value of this system lies not in copying it, but in helping you see clearly: only the rules written on ordinary days can withstand market sentiment at 11 PM in the deep of night.

Every SMSF (self-managed super fund) inquiry ends the same way.

We finish the paperwork. Trust deeds, bank accounts, custodians, audit records. Everything to keep you out of trouble. Then there is a moment of pause, and I know exactly what will happen next.

"So. Should I buy now? Should I wait? What should I even buy?"

I can’t answer. It’s not unwillingness. It’s inability. The person asking could be 42 with twenty years left, or 68 with only three years remaining. They might sleep soundly through a 30% drawdown or collapse with a 10% dip. No one can answer this question for another; anyone giving an answer is just guessing.

But now, hundreds of people have asked me this question, which is also the reason Tom and I created CSH. So this week, I’m going to provide the only honest answer: how I operate with my own money and the system driving it. It’s not for you to copy verbatim. It’s to help you see what a system looks like and then build your own.

All the content below operates on the free version of the app.

CSH Risk Dashboard

CSH Score: 25.6/100 — Early cycle (stable, this week +0.7). It ranks in the lowest 22% of all readings since 2011 and has stayed in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days.

Key indicators:

BTC: $64,492 / AU$91,717 (7-day: basically flat)

BTC Dominance: 59.2%

ETH/BTC: 0.029

TOTAL3/BTC (altcoins priced in Bitcoin): 0.37 — prior cycle bottoms hovered around 0.25

Fear and Greed Index: 26 - Fear

Total Market Cap: $2.27 trillion

Review: Last time I stated that three things must happen before this bear market ends, and none of them have happened. A week has passed, and it’s still zero to three. The only noteworthy change: BTC has climbed back above the 200-week moving average (about $63,300). A necessary condition, but far from enough.

Jake's interpretation: Two weeks of sideways movement at around $62,000 to $66,000, and the score has been stuck in the 20s the whole time. The market is boring, and the macro is noisy. My plan hasn’t changed this week; this is the plan.

Image: CSH risk score dashboard, score 25.6/100, in early cycle, has stayed in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days. Source: Crypto Super Hub

How I Invest My Money

This week has no title. The above question is more important than any news cycle, so this is my answer, three rules.

Rule One: Benchmark against two metrics. I track my portfolio using both USD and Bitcoin. The second number keeps me alert. If your altcoin doubles, but Bitcoin triples, you are actually at a loss. You just haven’t noticed because you’re only staring at the dollar number. Fifteen years later, BTC is still the benchmark for the entire asset class. If I’m going to hold something else, it’s because I genuinely believe it will outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, why hold it?

Rule Two: Prioritize the core, recognize your limits. I currently hold 100% Bitcoin. Zero altcoins. This isn’t forever; it just fits my life. I have a family, a full-time job at the exchange, and in my spare time, I’m still building CSH. Rotating altcoins is work meant for those with time. I know because I experienced this in the last cycle; holding a bunch of altcoins without a plan led to devastating losses, while Bitcoin quietly outperformed almost all the coins I held. The lesson isn’t that altcoins are bad. It’s that my portfolio must align with my real life. Start with BTC as the core. You can only add complexity when you have the time and skills to handle it.

Rule Three: Let the system do the buying. My money runs dynamic dollar-cost averaging via the CSH score. Buying according to the plan, but only when the score is in my 10 to 30 range. The position is dynamic: the lower the score, the more I buy. At a score of 30, I build a modest position. At a score of 15, the position is several times larger than before. Every decision is made calmly months in advance. The market can’t renegotiate with me at 11 PM.

The same mechanism runs in reverse. My plan sells dynamically above the exit range. Writing down my exit rules last cycle made a difference between realizing cycle gains and going back and forth on rollercoasters. Bitcoin has followed a very close rhythm of nearly four years throughout its life. I won’t go against it based on feelings.

Where am I this week? Score 25.6, regular buying operates within the range, with a larger position waiting for a trigger that has yet to appear below 20. Over two weeks, I intentionally haven’t made any new moves. Not acting is also a position; this is my position now.

Jake's Workbench

This week’s major update: my planning function has been completely overhauled. Email alerts are live. You can set portfolio goals and watch them fill up. Order records require just two clicks; the portfolio view now shows your average buy price next to the real-time score. It is becoming the screen I will check, instead of price.

This is my own plan, directly screenshot from the app:

Image: The author's own dollar-cost averaging plan, buying 0.2279 BTC since the end of June, average price AU$87,755, target 2 BTC. Source: Crypto Super Hub

Since the end of June, three orders have been recorded, purchasing 0.2279 BTC towards the 2 BTC goal, average buy price AU$87,755. Quick clarification to avoid misreading the screen: this plan only tracks the portion I’ve bought since it went live a few weeks ago. This is a slice of my holdings, not the whole. But this is the system discussed above, operating openly, with records accumulating from here.

Next step for the workbench: CSV upload and exchange synchronization to make order records simpler.

The discussion of altcoin season is back. My information feed is full of rotation calls. The indicators I follow say we’re not there yet: the altcoin market cap priced in BTC is at 0.37, and every cycle's bottom tends to shoot up to around 0.25 before altcoins start running. Dominance is still rising, ETH/BTC remains flat. So: if someone pushes altcoin rotation at you this week, ask them what benchmark they are measuring against.

Image: (TOTAL3 - USDT)/BTC trend, altcoins priced in BTC market cap at 0.37, bottoms in previous cycles dipped to around 0.25. Source: Trading View

The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday (US time). The probability of maintaining the interest rate is about 85%, but whispers of interest rate hikes are growing louder. So: unless your plan hinges on next month’s interest rates, this is noise. My plan does not depend on this.

Visa launched a stablecoin platform, allowing banks to issue their own stablecoins without building infrastructure. So: this is the meaning of a bear market. While no one is watching the charts, the infrastructure is being built.

Morgan Stanley has opened BTC, ETH, and SOL spot trading for E*TRADE clients. So: millions of ordinary brokerage accounts are now only a click away from Bitcoin. The next wave of buyers won’t come from crypto Twitter. They will come from the screens they’re already using.

Next Week's Focus

FOMC decision, Thursday at 4 AM (AEST). Maintaining the interest rate is basically priced in, so the reaction will depend on the wording. Expect two-way volatility. Volatility is not a signal.

200-week moving average, around $63,300. BTC is almost exactly on that line. A weekly close above or below that line is something the entire market is watching.

Below 20. This cycle still has zero days below 20. This is the trigger my larger purchase position is waiting for. If it occurs, you will hear about it here first.

One question birthed the whole company: "Should I buy now?" The honest answer is never a date or a coin. It’s a system that fits your life, matches your nerves, and is written down before the market gets noisy.

Mine is above. If you want to build your own, the score and plan builder are free.

I’m curious: reply with a number, the percentage of Bitcoin in your current holdings. I’ll share the statistics next week.

See you next week.

Thank you for reading. Share this article with someone you think will find it valuable.