Last Friday evening, the U.S. stock market's memory chip sector was once again subjected to a rout.
SK Hynix fell nearly 9%, SanDisk dropped nearly 11%, and Micron decreased by nearly 7%. Ironically, Intel, which had just released a report that greatly exceeded market expectations, also could not escape, with its stock price plummeting over 7%.
When earnings exceed expectations, it falls. When earnings meet expectations, it falls. When earnings are below expectations, it falls even more.
This bizarre situation of "falling regardless of good or bad news" raises the question: Has the meme coin trend from the cryptocurrency world infected the U.S. stock market? Stocks with trillion-dollar market capitalizations move similarly to meme coins without any fundamental support—any slight change can trigger a sell-off.
The narrative of "All in AI" can no longer be managed 100% in today's market.
1. The Market Has Changed: From "Hearing Stories" to "Expecting Returns"
Over the past year, the logic behind the rise of AI chip stocks has been simple and straightforward: as long as your name is associated with AI, as long as you are buying GPUs, building data centers, or expanding HBM capacity—stock prices will rise. The larger the capital expenditure, the more excited the market; the more money burned, the higher the valuation.
But now, this logic has expired.
The market is shifting from "hearing stories" to "wanting numbers." Investors are no longer satisfied with qualitative descriptions like "we are heavily investing in AI"; they are starting to ask a sharper question: "After betting hundreds of billions of dollars, where are the returns?"
Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple—these AI giants frequently invest hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers and chip industries, but can the incremental revenue generated by AI services cover the increasingly heavy depreciation, electricity, and rental costs? This question is becoming a core variable in determining the direction of AI narratives in the next phase.
Recently, these giants will successively announce their earnings reports. Their answers to this question are likely to determine whether chip stocks can emerge from the current quagmire or continue to seek a bottom.
2. $950 Billion Order: Is it a Positive or Already Priced In?
SK Group and Samsung announced that they secured a $950 billion order from Nvidia and other tech giants in the U.S. This order involves memory chips, HBM, and other AI infrastructure components and is the largest overseas cooperation agreement in the history of the Korean semiconductor industry.
After the news broke, the market initially hoped this could provide momentum for a bottom-out rebound for the continuously declining chip stocks. The trading pattern after Monday's opening will directly judge the "pricing impact" of this order.
However, if we calmly analyze this order, we discover several issues:
First, the $950 billion is largely an intention letter and a multi-year framework agreement, to be executed by 2030. It is not revenue that can be confirmed in the next quarter, nor is it cash already secured. The direct uplifting effect on stock prices is limited.
Second, the idea of "AI memory shortage" has already been fully priced in by the market. This order merely contracts what everyone has already observed; it does not provide any new information that exceeds expectations.
The market often pays more attention to information that exceeds existing expectations.
—It is the "positive news that the market doesn't know," not "repeating the consensus." When everyone already knows about HBM shortages and that cloud providers are frantic in placing orders, announcing a large order naturally has a diminished marginal effect on stock prices.
Of course, considering the current extreme following emotions towards chip stocks, this news is still likely to provide a direct boost to the relevant stocks in the short term.
3. Alerts from the Options Market: VIX is Calm, but VXN has Soared to 28
If you visually observe the S&P 500 index, the market does not seem to be in panic. The VIX volatility index is currently around 18.57, relatively calm, far from reaching the extreme fear zone.
However, if you shift your focus to the Nasdaq-specific volatility index VXN, the picture is completely different—VXN has risen to 28.39.
The gap between VIX and VXN is rapidly widening, which is an extremely important signal. It indicates that market panic is not uniform but highly concentrated in the technology sector. Investors have limited concerns about the overall market, but their anxiety towards chip stocks, AI-related stocks, and overvalued tech stocks has reached a considerable depth.
In the context of high VXN, the short-term volatility of tech stocks may be further amplified. Any earnings report that falls short of expectations, any negative macro news, could become the last straw that breaks the camel's back.
4. In Conclusion: Powerful Tools in an Uncertain Environment
The current market landscape is highly fragmented. The long-term narrative for chip stocks (continuous growth in AI demand) and short-term pressures (valuation corrections, scrutiny of earnings reports, spiking volatility) coexist, and it is uncertain which side will prevail in the coming period.
In this environment, the most dangerous approach is to "bet on a single direction and stubbornly hold." The most prudent course of action is to possess the ability to operate in both directions.
The options function of the BIT platform was officially launched last week. Whether you hold chip stocks and want to hedge against downside risk or seek trading opportunities amidst volatility, option tools can be utilized:
Hold stocks + buy put options: Insure high positions, strictly lock in losses
Buy call/put options in one direction: Bet on direction with a small premium, with manageable maximum loss
Simultaneously buy in both directions: The earnings season with large fluctuations is about to arrive
In a market with unclear directions, those with options can navigate through bull and bear conditions.
Risk Warning: Options are high-risk financial products, with prices influenced by underlying assets, volatility, remaining duration, and other factors, potentially leading to total premium loss. Please thoroughly understand product risks and make prudent decisions based on your circumstances before investing.
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