Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina）

Author｜Wenser（@wenser2010）

As the "first stock in domestic storage," Changxin Technology has finally landed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board today, closing the first day with a465.8% increase, with a total transaction amount exceeding 140 billion, and a total market value reaching 3.28 trillion yuan.

At the same time, on its first day of listing, it has broken multiple records, setting milestones including "the first technology stock with an opening market value exceeding 3 trillion," "the highest market capitalization on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board," "the first stock to surpass 100 billion in daily trading volume," and "the first new stock to achieve over 50% turnover rate with a trading volume over 100 billion," amongmany historical records in A-shares.

With the market performance on its first day settling down, the next question arises—will the stock price of Changxin Storage continue to rise? What is the target price seen? Currently, the market still has a certain degree of disagreement on this.

Intense Debate on Changxin's Future Stock Price Trend: Nomura Securities Bullish at 116 Yuan, Northeast Securities Estimates 10-15 Times PE

As the current "fourth in the world, first in China" storage giant, the market position of Changxin Storage is undoubtedly solid.

According to data disclosed in Changxin's IPO press release, the company expects to achieve revenue of 110 billion to 120 billion yuan from January to June 2026, a year-on-year increase of 612.53% to 677.31%; it is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 50 billion to 57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2244.03% to 2544.19%. In light of this, many institutions have provided their forecasts for the market.

View 1: Nomura Securities Gives Buy Rating, Bullish at 116 Yuan, Market Value Exceeds 7.7 Trillion Yuan

This morning, the international investment bank Nomura Securities (referred to as Nomura) released a report stating that it has given Changxin (CXMT) a "buy" rating, with a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio, implying a rise of 1239.5%. This valuation is double that of US storage giant Micron (MU), meaning that Changxin Technology's stock price would increase approximately 13.4 times compared to the IPO price, corresponding to a market value of about 7.76 trillion yuan.

It is worth mentioning that in the report’s title, Nomura compared the industrial value of Changxin's DRAM chips to "the pearl on China's crown." According to their model, Changxin's revenue is projected to quickly rise from 61.8 billion yuan in 2025 to 290.7 billion yuan in 2026, 560.8 billion yuan in 2027, and 773.3 billion yuan in 2028; Nomura also expects Changxin's net profit attributable to the parent company will gradually climb from less than 1.9 billion yuan to 130.3 billion yuan in 2026, 277.2 billion yuan in 2027, and 393.1 billion yuan in 2028. The compound annual growth rates for the two indicators are projected to be 63% for revenue and 74% for net profit.

It is worth noting that Nomura’s evaluation, which suggests nearly 2.4 times the current market value, is not unfounded but based on a comprehensive assessment of factors such as capacity expansion, technological upgrades, and price increases, as well as related to Changxin's current product structure, the storage supercycle, and the intended use of subsequent fundraising. For more judgment logic, it's recommended to read "Thirteen Times Bullish on Changxin Technology?"

According to information from Changxin Technology's prospectus, out of the 57.9 billion yuan raised in this IPO, 7.5 billion yuan will be used for upgrading the technology of memory wafer production lines, 13 billion yuan will be used for upgrading core process technologies of DRAM memory, and 9 billion yuan will be used for forward-looking technology research and development. The market generally believes that the final 9 billion yuan will be used for research and development in the direction of HBM, which is the core business of current memory giants like SK Hynix and Micron—AI chip high bandwidth memory.

In other words, Changxin is not satisfied with just the current main line of DRAM business and is actively expanding into high-profit, high-demand sectors like HBM.

View 2: Northeast Securities Estimates Valuation Range Converges to 3.2-5.7 Trillion Yuan

Compared to the extremely optimistic Nomura Securities, Northeast Securities provides a relatively conservative bullish range, but it still offers over 42% upside potential compared to the current market value.

In order to provide a reasonable valuation for Changxin Technology, Northeast Securities offers market value references from the following three aspects:

• Market share relative valuation perspective, using US stocks as the valuation reference, comparing and analyzing the market shares of Micron Technology, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, SanDisk, etc., in the DRAM and NAND markets, splitting the market value of different businesses, and considering Changxin's future market share, target market value of 3.49 trillion yuan.
• Profitability splitting perspective, by dissecting the historical revenue and cost structure of Changxin Technology, using price and capacity as core variables to forecast profits for this and next year, projecting a net profit attributable to the parent company of 284.8 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to a target market value of 2.85—4.27 trillion yuan at 10-15 times PE.
• Unit capacity market value perspective, calculating the market value of overseas storage listed companies based on unit capacity in the DRAM business and using this as a basis to calculate a target market value of 3.22—3.99 trillion yuan.

For detailed calculations and the reasoning process, refer to “A New ‘Stock King’ Is Born in A-shares, How to Reasonably Value Changxin?”.

View 3: Multiple ETF Funds Warn That Changxin's First Day ETF Net Value May Deviate from IOPV

This morning, on the eve of Changxin Technology's listing, multiple ETF fund managers from Huaxia Fund, Jiashi Fund, and othersreleased a reminder announcement stating that some ETFs under their management participated in the IPO of Changxin Technology and valued it at the issuance price, while the ETF's fund share reference net value (IOPV) only includes Changxin Technology's issuance price and does not account for its market price fluctuations. Therefore, the IOPV of the ETF on Changxin Technology’s first day may differ from the fund share net value, and investors should pay attention to relevant investment risks.

In response, an ETF fund manager revealed that currently, ETF IPOs are generally participating alongside active equity funds. The IOPV of the ETF is calculated strictly according to the PCF list, and new stocks and other restricted non-component stocks are not considered. The significant rise in Changxin Technology’s stock price on the first day will lead the actual net value of the ETF participating in the IPO to be slightly higher than the IOPV, resulting in indeed a deviation. In this case, potential arbitrage strategies may include buying the ETF while hedging with derivatives, keeping only the excess exposure due to the deviation.

In simpler terms, the IOPV (reference net value) investors see is based on the issuance price of Changxin at 8.66 yuan. However, the actual fund net value is calculated based on the market price, leading to the IOPV severely “undervaluing” the true value of the fund, making it appear discounted. Essentially, it's due to Changxin’s opening price surging, while the investment system display interface experiences delays, preventing investors from purchasing the ETF at high prices due to market fluctuations, which could result in investment losses.

View 4: Analysts Believe Changxin's Listing Surge Still Difficult to Change Global DRAM Shortage Status

Today, Milk Road AI analyst Melvinpublished an analysis on the surge in Changxin Technology's stock price.

He stated that in less than a year, Changxin Storage's global DRAM market share has increased from less than 4% to about 7.7%-8%, with revenue in the first quarter of this year increasing 719% year-on-year to 50.8 billion yuan. This growth is primarily due to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shifting more capacity toward AI server storage (especially HBM), leading to supply gaps in the traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, allowing Changxin Storage to fill the demand for mid to low-end DRAM.

However, Changxin Storage's current production capacity is far from meeting global demand, currently, its monthly wafer production capacity is about 290,000-320,000 pieces, which is less than Samsung's approximately 630,000 pieces and SK Hynix's approximately 500,000 pieces. Additionally, U.S. export restrictions on advanced photolithography equipment are limiting Changxin Storage's further expansion rate.

He believes that Changxin Storage will still have difficulty entering the HBM market in the short term, which will not change the supply and demand landscape of AI storage. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will still maintain an advantage in high-margin products like HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, and the global storage shortage cycle may continue.

To put it directly, the analyst believes that the surge in Changxin’s listing will not directly translate into a linear increase in market share and a surge in supply in the storage industry. The expectations are relatively neutral regarding market value and price performance.

View 5: On-chain Long and Short Differentiation, US and Chinese Addresses Bullish, Korean Addresses Bearish

Aside from the institutions and analysts, the on-chain long and short divergence for Changxin Technology is also quite evident.

According to HyperInsight monitoring, on the eve of Changxin Technology's listing, the attributed Changxin Technology wallets on Hyperliquid show: U.S., Hong Kong, and mainland China wallets are overall bullish, while Korean tagged wallets have become the main force shorting in this sample.

Among them, the Korean wallet holds about 760,000 USD in short positions, with a short position scale approximately 38 times that of long positions; the Taiwanese tagged wallet is also bearish, with a net short of about 329,000 USD.

Long Side:

• The U.S. tagged wallet holds 1.6 million USD in long positions, 345,000 USD in short positions, net long about 1.255 million USD;
• The Hong Kong tagged wallet holds 1.3 million USD in long positions, 431,000 USD in short positions, net long about 869,000 USD;
• The mainland China tagged wallet holds only 83,000 USD in long positions, 16,000 USD in short positions, net long about 67,000 USD.

If we assume that the Korean tagged wallet’s 760,000 USD short positions were all opened before the market opened at a unified price of 6.48 USD, with no adjustment thereafter, and all calculated with 1x leverage, then the theoretical floating loss on the short position would be about 48,500 USD, with a loss rate of about 6.4%. Considering today’s closing data, the long side still reaped significant returns.

View 6: Changxin's Rise Expectation Will Continue for Several Days, Low Circulation High Market Value Will Continue to Trigger FOMO

Apart from the above information, the mainstream views in the crypto market still have certain confidence in the subsequent rise of Changxin Storage.

The main points include:

First, currently, the circulating share of Changxin stock is only 6.63%, highly similar to the initial performance of SpaceX (SPCX);

Second, the memory supercycle is still the main theme in the capital market, coupled with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology, and other memory manufacturers continuously expanding production and advancing chip partnerships and new plant constructions. Analysts also expect SK Hynix's second-quarter financial report to significantly exceed market expectations, which directly boosts bullish sentiment for Changxin;

Third, Changxin Technology's unique position as a "leading stock in the domestic storage industry" has become a focal point for speculation in A-shares and various capital markets, combined with the previous "A-share premium effect," a 15-20 times price-to-earnings ratio expectation is not unrealistic;

Fourth, despite “rumored memos” claiming that brokerage firms internally prohibited speculation on Changxin, market performance shows that institutions maintain a certain restraint while still keeping a high degree of attention, indicating that institutional buying power for Changxin still exists, thus reserving some momentum for future rises.

Finally, in a side note, according to Bloomberg Billionaires Index data, since Changxin’s listing, the wealth of its founder Zhu Yiming’s family has soared nearly 300%, reaching 13.9 billion USD. Currently, he is preparing to distribute 40% of this as bonuses to employees. This move may be imitating SK Hynix’s practice of distributing 10% of annual net profits to all employees, which could also delay the pace of stock monetization to some extent.

Recommended Reading

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