This week, the Bitcoin daily level wave a rebound may have peaked on July 21, with the market transitioning into the b wave adjustment phase; HYPE is at a critical resistance zone of $60 to $63.5, and the path is not yet clear. Below is this week's review of BTC and HYPE multi-cycle structure, operational strategies, as well as market validations of last week's short-term trades for reference.
This week's core trading viewpoint summary:
• BTC multi-cycle trend structure analysis (for detailed explanation, see the first part)
• BTC market outlook and medium/short-term operational strategies (for detailed explanation, see the second part)
• HYPE hourly level trend structure analysis (for detailed explanation, see the third part)
• HYPE market outlook and short-term operational strategies (for detailed explanation, see the fourth part)
Last week’s trading strategy and core viewpoint market validation:
• BTC market trend prediction validation: In last week’s article, it was clearly pointed out that Bitcoin had a high probability of ending the first segment (wave a) rebound around $67,300. Our prediction has been accurately validated by the market.
• BTC short-term trading effectiveness: Bitcoin completed a short-term short position operation last week (1x leverage), successfully realizing a profit of about 1.70%. (For detailed explanation, see the fifth part)
• HYPE market trend prediction validation: Last week it was clearly stated that if prices rebound at the start of the week, it can be seen as a confirmation of a pullback after breaking the key support zone ($62 to $63.5). Currently, the market trend is highly consistent with our judgment.
1. Bitcoin multi-cycle trend structure analysis
1. Bitcoin daily level trend structure analysis: (based on market analysis after May 6) 
Figure 1 Bitcoin daily candlestick chart
① As shown in (Figure 1): The adjustment market starting from the high of $82,850 on May 6 has presented a four-segment adjustment structure (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).
② From the daily structure analysis: The first segment (i.e., wave a) of the rebound that started from the low of $57,820 on July 1 may have ended on July 21, during which the rebound height reached $66,955.
③ If the wave a rebound has ended, then the current market is in the b wave adjustment phase. After the b wave adjustment ends (the prerequisite is that the adjustment low cannot break below $57,820), there may be a potential c wave rebound segment, which is expected to challenge the resistance area around $67,300 again.
2. In-depth analysis of Bitcoin hourly level trend structure: (using 4-hour analysis period)
Figure 2 Bitcoin 4-hour candlestick chart
① In the 4-hour cycle framework, the rebound that started from the low point (point 44, about $57,820) on July 1 to July 21 (point 51, about $66,955) has been clearly divided structurally into seven segments from (44-45) to (50-51). Among them, due to the overlap of segments (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), and (49-50), it constitutes a "five-segment" central E.
② Based on the trend structure analysis: comparing the entering segment (44-45) of the central E with the leaving segment (50-51), it can be clearly determined that the rebound momentum of the leaving segment is significantly weaker than that of the entering segment, forming a momentum divergence state. Therefore, the rebound starting from "point 44" may have announced its end at "point 51," leading to a significant probability of subsequent adjustments.
③ The adjustment that has been running from "point 51" has progressed through segments (51-52) and (52-53). The current trend can be seen as a pullback confirmation stage after the price fell below $65,700.
2. Bitcoin market outlook and operational strategies for this week
1. BTC market trend prediction this week:
This week's core viewpoints:
① Pay attention to the testing results of the price pullback near $65,700.
② Pay attention to the strength of support when the price dips into the $60,950 to $61,500 area.
2. Core resistance levels:
• First resistance zone: $65,700 to $67,300 (previous important resistance zone)
• Second resistance zone: $69,500 to $71,000 (previous important resistance zone)
3. Core support levels:
• First support level: near $63,700 (previous important support level)
• Second support level: $60,950 to $61,500 (previous important support level)
• Third support level: near $57,820 (previous important support level)
4. Operational strategies for this week (excluding sudden news impacts)
① Medium-term strategy:
Figure 3 Bitcoin daily candlestick chart: (position monitoring model)
Position monitoring model: As shown in (Figure 3), the current price has effectively broken below the "bull-bear channel," confirming the market structure has shifted to a bearish dominant pattern. According to the established trading plan: when the price rebounds to around $67,000 and shows a stagnation signal, and simultaneously observes that the self-built quantitative model issues a top signal, we have strictly executed the strategy, increasing the medium-term short position to around 40%.
② Short-term strategy: Use 30% of the position to set stop-loss points, looking for "arbitrage" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30 minutes/60 minutes as the operating cycle).
③ In short-term operations, to dynamically respond to the complex evolution of the market, we have formulated two specific operational plans, A/B in advance.
Plan A: Tentative short in the strong resistance zone.
• Open position: If the price rebounds to the $65,700 to $67,300 resistance zone and encounters resistance, and combined with the top signal from the quantitative model, approximately 30% of the short position can be established.
• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss level.
• Close position: When the price adjusts near the important support level and combined with quantitative model signals, positions can be gradually closed for profit-taking.
Plan B: Light long in the strong support zone.
• Open position: If the price adjusts above the previous low of $57,820 and shows a stabilization signal, and combined with the bottom signal from the quantitative model, approximately 30% of the long position can be established.
• Risk control: Set initial stop-loss level.
• Close position: When the price rebounds near the important resistance level and combined with model signals, positions can be gradually closed for profit-taking.
3. HYPE hourly level trend structure analysis
Figure 4 HYPE 4-hour candlestick chart
1. As shown in (Figure 4), HYPE has adjusted from the high of $72.97 on July 7 (i.e., from point 61 to point 71) and can be subdivided into a ten-segment adjustment structure on the 4-hour chart. Among them, segments 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, and 66-67 overlap to form a "five-segment" declining central.
2. The current market is running a rebound segment (70-71). Subsequently, two trend scenarios may emerge:
Path one: $56.47 is both the end of the adjustment and the start of the recovery. The adjustment market that started from July 7 ($72.97) ended on July 24 ($56.47), and the current rebound is a technical repair phase against this downward market.
Path two: After constructing a "declining central" continue to look for bottom. A new "declining central" is currently being built, and the market will continue the original downward trend, breaking below the previous low of $56.47 and seeking support further down.
3. In summary, closely monitor the price testing results against the resistance zone of $60 to $63.5, as well as the defense strength of support around $56.47. The outcome of the contest at these two price levels will be a key basis for determining which path the market will take.
4. HYPE market outlook and short-term operational strategies for this week
1. HYPE market trend prediction this week:
① Core resistance levels:
• First resistance level: $60 to $63.5
• Second resistance level: $68 to $69.5
• Third resistance level: near $72.97
② Core support levels:
• First support level: near $56.47;
• Second support level: $52 to $55;
This week's core viewpoint: Pay close attention to the price testing results against the resistance zone of $60 to $63.5 and the strength of support near $56.47.
2. HYPE short-term operational strategies for this week: This week’s short-term strategy: If the price rebounds to the $60 to $63.5 area and shows clear adjustment signals, it is recommended that investors consider entering with a light position for a short, adhering strictly to stop-loss discipline, controlling positions within 20%.
5. Review of short-term trading gains for Bitcoin
We strictly adhered to the operational plan, using signals from our self-constructed "arbitrage trading model" and "momentum quantization model" to complete a short-term (short) operation last week, with a total trading profit of about 1.70%.
1. Short-term trading record: (see Table 1) Summary of Bitcoin short-term trading details:
Table 1
2. Short-term trading review: (see Figure 5)
• Open position strategy:
a. When the price rebounds to around $67,000, a stagnation signal appears, and the candlestick forms a "top pattern";
b. The "arbitrage trading model" triggers a strong warning signal (white dot + green dot), and subsequently, the signal band in the chart (blue) breaks the skyline (green), emitting a downward signal;
Simultaneously layering "momentum quantization model" adjustment signal resonance. Therefore, we established a short position of 30% at $66,319.
• Close position strategy:
a. When the price drops to around $64,500 and shows a bottoming signal, the candlestick forms a "bottom pattern";
b. The "arbitrage trading model" continuously triggers bottom warning signals (red dot), and subsequently, the signal band in the chart (orange-yellow) breaks the horizon (purple-red), forming a bottom resonance signal with the "momentum quantization model";
Thus, we completely closed positions around $65,192.
• Summary: This trade successfully profited about 1.70%.
3. Short-term trading illustration
Figure 5 BTC 60-minute candlestick chart: (momentum quantization model + arbitrage trading model)
6. Special Notice:
- When opening a position: immediately set an initial stop-loss level.
- When profit reaches 1%: move the stop-loss to the opening cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
- When profit reaches 2%: move the stop-loss to the 1% profit position.
- Continuous tracking: thereafter, for every additional 1% profit, the stop-loss level moves 1% upwards to dynamically protect and lock in profits.
The financial market is ever-changing, and all market analysis and trading strategies must be adjusted dynamically. All viewpoints, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article are derived from personal technical analysis and are for personal trading logs only, not constituting any investment advice or operational basis. There are risks in the market; investment needs caution, please do not make decisions based solely on this.
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