"Jiangfeng Trading Diary" Issue Fifteen
Yesterday's Review: Bitcoin surged yesterday to the 65722 line, then began to retreat, hitting a low of 63000, precisely corresponding to the short position around 65700 mentioned in the fourteenth issue. Ethereum's highest rebound yesterday was around 1982, starting to fall back to around 1865, which also aligns with the short strategy of 1967 to 1990 from yesterday. Now, as the market slightly rebounds, we need to focus on these key points!

First, let's discuss today's viewpoint: mainly short, remember to participate with light positions as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches. Risk Index: 🌟🌟🌟🌟☆

📌 Ethereum: Short initial position around (1920～1940), add short around 1970
🏁 Target 1850～1800
🏁 Target 1750～1690

📌 Bitcoin: Short initial position around 64300, add short around 65200～65800
🏁 Target 62500～61300
🏁 Target 60500～59000

Here is my interpretation of the current market:
The news conference after the interest rate announcement on July 30th is crucial; any hawkish/dovish signals will affect subsequent trends. Currently, the market expectations regarding interest rates are quite divergent. According to CME data, the probability of a rate hike in July has risen to 37.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 62.1%. However, the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has soared to 54.6%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike is 26.3%. Although the probability of maintaining the rate in July is relatively high, any hawkish remarks during the meeting would increase expectations for a September rate hike!

Additionally, it cannot be ignored that Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a net outflow for three consecutive days, totaling over 476.8 million dollars, ending a seven-day streak of net inflows. Institutions are gradually withdrawing, leading to increased selling pressure on prices!

Day three of the US-Iran ceasefire, the benefits of the truce have already been reflected in market prices! Three forces are intertwined; before the FOMC announcement, all rebounds are noise, and all downturns are performance. Therefore, whether long or short, there is considerable risk now, and participation must be light!

Written by: Jiangfeng Capital —- K-lines and indicators are merely the results of prices, not the reasons for prices!

Wishing everyone smooth trading and achieving financial freedom soon!

Do you think Bitcoin will break through 68000 in early August? Or fall below 60000?

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