This week the market officially enters **"a tumultuous autumn."**

Yesterday, BTC displayed a typical rollercoaster market, with significant volatility amplifying. The catalyst came during the Asian trading session, where the Japanese and South Korean stock markets plummeted sharply, triggering a rapid rise in market risk aversion. The crypto market quickly nosedived within just one hour, continuously breaking through multiple key support levels, and the market leverage was concentrated and cleared out.

However, following the rapid decline, the price has already approached the starting zone of this upward trend, which means that the market is beginning to enter a new phase of long and short battles.

If this area can form effective support, the market is more likely to enter a sideways consolidation, digesting short-selling sentiment over time; if support is lost, it indicates that this round of adjustment may extend further downward.

The biggest risk event of the week is undoubtedly the FOMC interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve at 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30.

Currently, the market generally expects this meeting to maintain interest rates, but there remains a high level of attention on the subsequent policy path. Recently, market expectations for further tightening of policies in September have clearly intensified, which also means that the Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement and the Chairman's speech may trigger more violent market fluctuations than the result of interest rates itself.

Therefore, before and after the FOMC announcement, market volatility is expected to remain high, making position management and risk control increasingly important.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Viewpoint: Weak fluctuations, mainly short on rebounds, waiting for direction confirmation.

After yesterday's rapid decline, BTC's short-term trend still leans weak.

Currently, it seems:

• 1-hour and 2-hour periods have basically completed the first round of adjustment, with a short-term technical rebound demand;

• 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, and 12-hour adjustments are not yet fully over, with medium-term pressure still existing;

• Daily bearish momentum continues to strengthen, overall still in a phase of recovery and adjustment.

The current price is nearing the previous low point, which is also the launch zone of the previous round of upward movement; hence, it becomes a key position for both bulls and bears to compete.

Moving forward, the market has two main possibilities:

• If the support around 62666 and below can be effectively defended, the market may enter a phase of consolidation and wait for the FOMC outcome to reassess direction;

• If key support is broken with volume, bearish momentum may further release, seeking new support in the 61200-61700 area.

Thus, currently both bulls and bears have their respective logic:

• Shorting: Depending on the mid-term bearish trend not yet ending, waiting for a break below key support to continue downward;

• Longing: Depending on the previous price zone forming support, trading a technical rebound after confirming support.

Until the direction becomes clear, a more conservative strategy is still to wait for the mid-term adjustment to complete and then follow the market trend, rather than betting on a direction prematurely.

At the same time, there are only three days left in this month, and from the monthly structural perspective, the overall rebound pattern has not been broken. Even if an adjustment occurs, it is expected to be more of a correction in the upward process rather than a trend reversal.

Key Position Reference

Support: 62666-62300-61200-61700

Pressure: 64300-64600-65200

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This article was originally published by 【Huijing Community】, representing only personal opinions. Due to the information delivery having a certain delay, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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