Last night, the US stock market's chip sector experienced another severe sell-off.

SanDisk closed down 11%, SK Hynix fell over 7%, with its stock price officially dropping below the IPO issue price of $149. Even the traditionally stable leader Nvidia saw a decline of 5%.

This morning, panic spread across the Pacific—South Korea's stock market triggered a circuit breaker again. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both plummeted, leading the KOSPI index to drop sharply.

The source of all this points to the same variable: the rise of China's related chip industry is fundamentally shaking the pricing logic of the global memory market.

1. Changxin Rises to the Top of A-shares, Domestic DUV Equipment Set to be Delivered

Yesterday, Changxin Memory (CXMT) officially listed on A-shares.

On its first day, its market value topped the A-share list—this figure alone is enough to shake the global semiconductor industry. It is worth noting that for a considerable amount of time, the high-end memory chip (HBM, DRAM, NAND) market has been tightly monopolized by Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung. Changxin's ascendance signifies that this once "ironclad" pattern is being torn apart.

More crucial news followed closely: it has been reported in the industry that the first batch of domestic DUV lithography equipment is planned to be delivered to domestic chip manufacturers such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Changxin Memory. Among them, Changxin Memory, as a representative enterprise of China's DRAM industry, is expected to become an important application scenario for domestically produced advanced semiconductor equipment.

It is important to clarify that this does not mean that China has made a technological breakthrough in EUV or HBM. The delivery of domestically produced DUV equipment is still a long way from fundamentally changing the global lithography machine landscape. However, the market's pricing logic is never equivalent to reality—what the market trades is "expectations," not "the current situation."

2. The "Scarcity Premium" is Being Disrupted

The combination of Changxin's listing and the delivery of domestic equipment has impacted the market not at the technical level, but at the valuation level.

In the past, Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung could enjoy extremely high valuation premiums, largely relying on a core narrative: the supply of global high-end memory chips is controlled by a few manufacturers, and this scarcity gives them strong pricing power. When AI demand exploded, they could raise prices at will; when production capacity was tight, they could pick customers.

However, Changxin's rise is disrupting this narrative.

Once Changxin acquires stable domestic expansion tools, DRAM supply will inevitably increase. The impact on Samsung and Hynix is not next quarter's profit numbers, but the future premium of "scarcity + pricing power" that supports their market value.

When the market realizes that "monopoly status is no longer eternal," the reconstruction of valuations will occur rapidly.

3. The Fate of US Chip Stocks Starts to Depend on Others

SK Hynix's stock price trend is exhibiting an interesting characteristic: US stocks fall first, followed by Korean stocks.

This indicates that global capital is reassessing the long-term logic of the memory industry through the best liquidity pricing window of the US stock market. After Hynix's US stock price fell below the $149 issue price, the arbitrage pressure and emotional transmission quickly spread to the domestic South Korean market, compounded by Samsung and Hynix's high weighting in the KOSPI index, leading to a magnified de-leveraging at the individual stock level into an index-level panic.

This time, the fate of US chip stocks is no longer solely in their own hands.

Going forward, the market needs to pay attention not just to whether Hynix's July 29 earnings report can maintain HBM4 orders and cash flow, but also to a deeper variable: whether domestically produced DUV equipment can be validated by the market, facilitating significant expansion for Changxin, thus intensifying global memory price competition.

4. Signals of Shifting Lanes: Why are Apple and Google Stabilizing Against the Trend?

While chip stocks are in disarray, another scene appeared in the US stock market last night.

Apple and Google's stock prices not only did not fall, but slightly rebounded. Against the backdrop of a significant drop in the Nasdaq, the resilience of these two giants is particularly striking.

The reason behind this may be: their strategies in AI capital expenditure are starkly different from those companies that are wildly building their own infrastructure.

Apple and Google prefer to lease computing power rather than build large-scale data centers. Although Google's capital expenditures are also high, a significant portion is invested in self-developed TPU chips (Frozen v2), which is "differentiated investment" rather than a "follow-the-leader arms race"; Apple has remained extremely cautious in AI investments, almost not participating in large model training competitions, focusing instead on edge AI and device integration.

When the market starts to question the returns of "unrestrained burning of cash," those players who spend the least or spend the smartest become a safe haven. This style switch may be an important clue for the reallocation of funds in the upcoming period.

5. In Conclusion: Insure Yourself or Change Tracks

The current market landscape is highly complex. The long-term demand logic for chip stocks (AI-driven) still exists, but the mid-term supply landscape (China's rise) is undergoing structural changes. The intertwining of these two logical lines significantly increases the difficulty of directional judgments.

In such an environment, there are two relatively rational coping strategies:

First, insure existing holdings.

The options feature of BIT brokerage has officially launched. If you hold stocks of SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk, etc., you can hedge downside risk by buying put options—if the stock price continues to be pressured by the narrative of Chinese competition, the appreciation of the options can cover the losses of the underlying stock; if there is a rebound, the maximum loss is only the cost of the options premium.

Second, consider switching tracks.

If you believe that the "scarcity premium" of memory chips has been irreversibly eroded, you might want to shift your attention to those with more restrained AI spending and more robust valuations—such as Apple, Google, etc. On the BIT platform, you can directly trade these real US stocks listed on Nasdaq, enabling timely portfolio adjustments.

The fate of chip stocks is turning from "self-sufficiency" to "watching others' faces." What investors need to do is to prudently insure themselves.

Risk Warning: Options and US stock trading both carry the risk of capital loss. The maximum loss from buying put options is the premium paid, and option prices fluctuate with changes in implied volatility and remaining duration. In panic situations, newly purchased options' premiums are often already factored in with high volatility premiums; the stock prices of US stocks are influenced by exchange rates, industry cycles, and individual stock fundamentals, and historical performance does not guarantee future results. The above content is merely a market observation and product feature introduction, and does not constitute specific investment advice. Please make independent judgments based on your own risk tolerance.

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