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Bitcoin Refreshes Near Ten-Day Low, True Direction May Appear After FOMC Meeting

Bitcoin dropped below $63,000 during yesterday's trading, refreshing its near ten-day low, and then quickly rebounded near $62,700, though overall it still operates below the key pressure level.

From a technical perspective, traders generally maintain a cautious view. The range of $64,000 to $64,400 represents an important short-term pressure zone; if the rebound is hindered, the price may retest the liquidity area between $60,000 and $62,000. Analyst Killa further added that as long as BTC cannot regain the $65,700 level and weekly opening price, the overall structure remains in a consolidating bearish stance, with a drop below $63,700 leading to a test of $61,800. Analyst Wulf observed that although the monthly support has been broken, there is still significant buying support around $62,700. A technical rebound is not ruled out before the FOMC meeting, but a true directional fluctuation may be triggered after the meeting.

It is worth mentioning again that in the past 9 FOMC meetings, BTC has fallen in 8 of them. The last time the price rose before an FOMC meeting, BTC formed a lower high and subsequently dropped by about 14%. The current MVRV of BTC is approximately 1.21, still higher than the 0.69 at the 2018 bear bottom and 0.75 at the 2022 bear bottom, indicating that from a historical capitulation indicator perspective, the market has not yet entered an extreme bottom, but cyclical fluctuations are narrowing. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that BTC funding rates have once again returned to historical lows, a signal that is very similar to the situations before the market starts in late 2022 and September 2024, suggesting that market pessimism may be approaching extreme, creating potential conditions for a market recovery in the coming months.

In terms of liquidity distribution, a significant amount of long liquidity is concentrated in the $60,000 to $62,000 range, with a $77 million BTC buy order appearing at $61,300; while between $64,000 and $68,000, a large amount of short liquidity is accumulated. The FOMC decision is very likely to become a catalyst for breaking this balance.

Today's Highlights:

• DeFi platform Dango will terminate the project, stopping trading on July 29 and closing the blockchain network on August 13

• Binance will support the Polygon (POL) network upgrade and hard fork on July 29

• The Polygon Ithaca hard fork will launch on the mainnet on July 29, enhancing payment reliability

• Serenity: SK Hynix ADR's premium over Korean stocks exceeds 25%, converting on July 29 presents arbitrage opportunities

• DEX aggregation protocol Odos announces it will cease operations, with all services permanently closing from July 30

• South Korea will raise single stock margin to 30 million won and limit it to cash, with the new rules taking effect on July 31

• FTX announced it will distribute approximately $900 million on July 31, with preferred shareholders receiving a second payment at the same time

• Falcon Finance (FF) unlocks approximately 10.2 million tokens, valued at about $6.2 million

• Kamino (KMNO) unlocks approximately 22.9 million tokens, valued at about $4.1 million

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: META2, BTC, XRP, ETH, EUL

• Bitcoin spot ETF: -$49.754 million, continuing a net outflow for 4 days

• Ethereum spot ETF: +$14.53 million

Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: BEAT up 26.9%, UB up 15%, JUP up 5.6%, PI up 5.2%, ADA up 4.7%.

U.S. Stock Index Futures Rebound, Storage Sector Continues to Weaken

The three major U.S. stock index futures maintained cautious oscillation before the FOMC, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.1%, Dow futures by 0.03%, and S&P 500 futures by 0.22%.

BIT Night Market Data shows that in the U.S. night market, the semiconductor and storage sectors continued to decline, with Micron Technology down 1.74%, SanDisk down 3.57%, SK Hynix down 2.07%, Storage ETF DRAM down 2.85%, and Semiconductor ETF down 1.52%.

• Seagate Technology rose 4.91% in the night market, surpassing expectations with nearly 50% growth last quarter and significantly increased gross margin exceeding 50%.

• Ford rose over 5% in the night market, exceeding expectations for second-quarter earnings, announcing a comprehensive upward revision of the 2026 full-year performance guidance.

• AI energy stock Bloom Energy surged over 13% in the night market, with quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion, significantly raising its full-year revenue forecast.

• Teradyne rose over 10% in the night market, strong performance and better-than-expected third-quarter revenue guidance provided a few highlights for the semiconductor equipment chain.

AI Hardware Cut Positions, Old Economy and Software Become Safe Haven

With the Federal Reserve decision, GDP, core PCE, and earnings reports from tech giants like Microsoft and Meta approaching, the U.S. stock market has fully entered an event-driven mode. Last night, the main line in the U.S. stock market was "AI hardware facing buyer strikes", with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closing down 4.49%, dipping over 6.5% during the session, falling below the critical support at 11,200; storage stocks became the focus of selling, with Micron down 8.85%, SK Hynix ADR down nearly 9%, SanDisk dropping over 10% for three consecutive days, down over 50% for July, AMD down over 8%, and Corning down over 12%.

The core issue behind the sell-off is not that AI demand has suddenly vanished, but rather the market is beginning to question: Is the AI capital expenditure of ultra-large cloud vendors sustainable, are hardware orders excessively front-loaded, and can free cash flow withstand this?

Software and application layers have become a safe haven for funds, with Workday up over 8%, Adobe up nearly 5%, ServiceNow up nearly 5%, Salesforce up over 4%, and Shopify up nearly 3%. The market is shifting from "selling shovels" to searching for "AI monetization capabilities". Notably, Apple's market capitalization has surpassed $5 trillion for the first time, and due to its strong cash flow and restrained AI investment strategy, it is viewed by the market as a scarce safe-haven asset.

The cryptocurrency concept stock sector overall followed the adjustment, according toBIT US Stocks data, Strategy fell 2.52%, Robinhood fell 3.02%, Coinbase rose 0.24%, Circle fell 2.06%. In the mining sector, Canaan Creative plummeted 7.25%, Cipher dropped 10.34%, Hut 8 fell 6.53%, MARA fell 5.09%, and CleanSpark fell 6.98%.

The mining sector was pulled by the AI transformation narrative and semiconductor sell-off simultaneously, with MARA down 3.31%, Hut 8 down 3.3%, and Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, and Cipher Mining all experiencing drops of 4% to 8%. Ionic Digital surged about 26% on its NASDAQ listing day; Core Scientific reported AI/HPC hosting revenue of $136.7 million in Q2, becoming its largest business, but recorded a net loss of $1.15 billion due to fair value changes of warrants, with the stock price falling more than 4% after the earnings report.

KOSPI Circuit Breaker, Nikkei Under Pressure, Hong Kong and A-Share Markets Absorb Some Funds

Asia-Pacific markets experienced extreme fluctuations, with semiconductor heavyweight stocks driving a liquidity crash. The Korean KOSPI index fell by 5.99%, dipping over 12% during the session, triggering circuit breakers for two consecutive trading days, hitting a new low since April 7.

The sharp decline in the Korean stock market is attributed to multiple overlapping factors: weakening U.S. semiconductor performance, SK Hynix's disappointing earnings report, and China's Changxin Technology's expansion impacting global storage pricing logic. Sentiment among Korean retail investors has shifted from FOMO (fear of missing out) to JOMO (joy of missing out), with leveraged funds undergoing massive stop-loss actions. Citigroup estimates that Korean retail investors' leveraged ETF cumulative losses are about $38.7 billion.

On the individual stock front, SK Hynix fell 9.6% after its earnings report, with the intraday maximum drop exceeding 17%, setting a record for the largest single-day decline, down over 58% from historical highs, with a market cap of about $686.2 billion; Samsung Electronics fell 5.2%. Korea's top brokerage house Mirae Asset cut SK Hynix's target price to 2.8 million won but maintained a "buy" rating, believing that storage prices still have short-term support.

Leverage products related to Hong Kong stocks exhibited extreme fluctuations, with the Southern Double Long SK Hynix falling over 28% at one point, down over 80% since July. In the Japanese market, the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.49%, with Kioxia Holdings plunging 18%, and SoftBank down 9.74%, as it plans to issue 90 billion yen in bonds to support AI investments, raising concerns in the market regarding the financial burden of AI capital expenditure.

Additionally, the yen exchange rate continues to come under pressure, with the dollar-yen rate hovering in the 163 to 164 range, approaching a 40-year low. Market focus is turning to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision this Friday; if Governor Ueda's signals are not sufficiently hawkish, the yen risks falling below 165. Against this backdrop, structural shifts in the Asia-Pacific market are unfolding, with some global funds withdrawing from South Korean semiconductors and moving towards Hong Kong tech and China's semiconductor self-sufficiency narrative, with Changxin Technology rising 12.66%, increasing its market cap to 3.54 trillion yuan (approximately $523.4 billion). Analysts believe that the Asia-Pacific market remains in a deleveraging phase in the short term, but China's storage chain is gradually becoming an important variable for global pricing.

Next Areas of Focus:

• July 30, 02:00 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: The market expects a probability of approximately 70% for maintaining rates, with a surprise rate hike of 25 basis points estimated at about 30%. If there is a surprise rate hike, the dollar and U.S. treasury yields may rise rapidly, putting pressure on BTC, Nasdaq, semiconductors, and high-valuation growth stocks; if rates remain unchanged but the statement is hawkish, the market will still price in September rate hike risks.

• July 30, 02:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's Press Conference: If Waller emphasizes energy inflation, AI capital expenditure inflation, and anti-inflation credibility, long-term rates may continue to rise; if he emphasizes data dependence and observational window, BTC and U.S. growth stocks may experience short-term recovery.

• July 30 Major Earnings Reports: Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Arm, Lam Research, Robinhood, etc. will report results. Microsoft Azure, Copilot commercialization, and AI capital expenditure will determine cloud computing sentiment; Meta's advertising and AI input will affect internet platform valuations; Qualcomm, Arm, and Lam Research will determine if the semiconductor sell-off can be halted; Robinhood will be a key window for tokenized stocks and crypto trading activity.

• July 30, 09:00 Samsung Electronics Complete Q2 Earnings Report: The market will focus on HBM, advanced process, foundry orders, capital expenditure, and long-term supply agreements. If Samsung confirms strong AI storage demand, it will help stabilize the storage chain, including SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk; if profit margins or CapEx outlook is cautious, Asia-Pacific semiconductors may still continue to fluctuate.

• July 30, 20:30 U.S. Q2 GDP Annualized Quarter-on-Quarter Initial Value and U.S. June Core PCE Price Index: If GDP is strong and core PCE is sticky, the market will reprice the path for rate hikes, which will pressure technology stock valuations and BTC; if growth slows and inflation is moderate, U.S. treasury yields are expected to decline, and risk assets may welcome a technical rebound.

• July 31 Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision: The market is likely expecting to maintain rates, but the yen is nearing a 40-year low. If Ueda is not hawkish enough, the dollar-yen may test 165 and increase the risk of foreign exchange intervention. If the yen triggers a carry trade reversal, it may transmit liquidity pressures to global risk assets and the crypto market.

• July 31 Major Earnings Reports: Apple, Amazon, Coinbase, Strategy, Kioxia, Roblox, Rivian, ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, etc. will release earnings reports. Apple will validate the iPhone demand, service revenue, and AI capital expenditure discipline behind its $5 trillion market cap; Amazon will determine AWS growth, AI model strategy, and retail profit margins. If both companies prove that AI investment is controllable and profit resilience is strong, technology stocks may see a style recovery; if capital expenditure continues to expand but the return path is unclear, AI hardware pressure will persist.

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