By the end of July 2026, the AI asset world was abruptly split in half: on one side was the hedge fund Situational Awareness, founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, which bet on AI concept stocks while shorting some software stocks. Due to significant losses in the same betting strategy amid extreme volatility, it was forced to urgently sell off positions around July 30 to raise cash for margin calls. According to a single source, Citadel, under Ken Griffin, had taken over most of its stock investment portfolio; on the other side, Elon Musk publicly echoed the judgment of former OpenAI employee Will Depue, stating that AI capabilities would not slow down, and recursive self-improvement would arrive in less than 24 months. Almost simultaneously, Google DeepMind described its newly released Gemini Robotics ER 2 as a "high-level brain" for robots, claiming that robots were entering a new phase where they could autonomously complete complex tasks. At the same time window, as traditional financial institutions passively de-risk and tech giants had a bullish outlook, a single source reported that a whale investor splurged about $31 million on SKHX, which is linked to the AI narrative, just after the release of the SK Hynix earnings report. In a short period, this position reversed from about $3.13 million in floating losses to approximately $2.01 million in floating profits, with fluctuations clearly visible. In this moment where fund liquidation, asset takeover, optimistic technical declarations, and significant on-chain gambling intertwined, it remains uncertain whether the violent oscillation of AI assets is announcing the beginning of a bubble burst or merely the inevitable growing pains before technological acceleration.

$45 billion AI fund forced to liquidate

Situational Awareness was originally one of the most typical representatives of "smart money" in this round of AI narrative: founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, its strategy was extremely focused, and in public information, it was almost equated to a single-themed hedge fund betting on AI concept stocks while simultaneously shorting some software stocks. According to a single source, it managed approximately $45 billion in assets, making it a rare large-scale player in the AI space. This means that as soon as the market shows slightest signs of turbulence, its leverage and hedge designs would become amplified into a real pressure on its balance sheet.

What truly pierced the defenses of this "AI thematic fund" was the violent fluctuations of AI concept stocks and the software stocks it was shorting at the same time: on one side was the heavy long position retreating, while on the other side, the short positions were being squeezed. Under leverage amplification, this quickly evolved into a margin call gap. By around July 30, 2026, Situational Awareness was forced to urgently close relevant positions to raise cash, fill margin calls, and prevent risks from spiraling out of control. This series of passive liquidations directly pushed it to the center of the "liquidation" narrative. Single source information revealed that Citadel under Ken Griffin had taken over most of its stock investment portfolio: one side was hurriedly liquidating before the margin call threshold, while the other side chose to actively pick up distressed assets in the AI space during a dual valuation and sentiment massacre. This transfer of funds and chips clearly outlined who was forced to concede defeat and who was still willing to bet on long-term AI amid increasing volatility.

Musk and DeepMind ignore market turmoil

In the same week when some funds were forced to liquidate and positions exploded one after another, Elon Musk conveyed the judgment of former OpenAI employee Will Depue on social media: if AGI were to be removed from the equation, the bearish view on frontier laboratories' valuation might not be unreasonable, but what truly matters is that "AI capabilities will not slow down." In his version, the arrival of recursive self-improvement (RSI) is set to occur in less than 24 months, yet it was not accompanied by any quantifiable technical roadmap or milestones. This resembled a check betting on "the continuation of technological acceleration," sharply contrasting with the AI funds being liquidated due to failed margin calls in the real market.

Almost simultaneously, Google DeepMind announced Gemini Robotics ER 2 and directly defined it as the "high-level brain" of robots—officially stating that this model allows robots to autonomously complete a series of complex tasks with exquisite precision and full-body control, symbolizing that AI is moving from purely software systems on screens to embodied entities in the real world. On one side, the technological frontier was publicly portraying a countdown for RSI and the onboarding of robot brains' accelerated narrative, while on the asset side, there was a violent pullback and passive liquidation at the end of July 2026. These two curves displayed stark contrasts—one fast and one slow, one cold and one hot—creating the most striking and difficult-to-ignore dislocation between current AI capability expectations and capital pricing.

$31 million whale bets on SKHX reversal

Just after SK Hynix released its earnings report and traditional markets repriced the AI hardware supply chain, according to a single source, a whale on-chain began to concentrate its investments related to the AI narrative in SKHX, spending about $31 million, buying in batches within a short period, pulling the average entry price to about $981.59. This was not a slow long-term allocation, but rather a directional gamble amplifying the market's reaction to the AI fundamentals directly on-chain, using the earnings report as a signal to convert the story of "AI will not slow down" into a series of unambiguous buy orders.

The subsequent price trajectory laid bare the risks and volatility of this gamble. According to a single source, SKHX then fell to a low of about $897.43, and this whale once faced floating losses of approximately $3.13 million but later, with a price rebound, turned into a floating profit of about $2.01 million, achieving a V-shaped reversal from significant drawdown to profit within a very short window. Currently, the identity of this whale, the source of funds, and whether similar positions were replicated at other addresses cannot be confirmed, but based on the rhythm and density of positions, this closely resembles a form of narrative-driven aggressive trading—betting on expected recovery and sentiment reversal, rather than on long-term holdings based on visible discounted cash flows that could be comfortably held for many years.

A Tale of Two Extremes: Technological Acceleration and Asset Blowup

Under the banner of "betting on AI," the funds at the end of July 2026 were brutally divided into three types of roles: on one side were professional institutions like Situational Awareness with high leverage and high concentration positions, which went wrong by being long on AI concept stocks while concurrently short on software stocks, chased by margin calls, and could only passively liquidate at the worst timing; on the other side, Citadel under Ken Griffin had taken over most of the stock investment portfolio within the same asset pool, choosing to patiently buy in when others were forced to deleverage, at least showing a willingness to bear volatility long-term within the current price range; meanwhile, on-chain, according to AiCoin data, the whale who spent about $31 million on SKHX after the SK Hynix earnings report did not reduce holdings after once facing a floating loss of about $3.13 million, but instead withstood the drawdown to welcome a rebound of roughly $2.01 million in floating profits, betting real capital on the possibility of the "new era of AI."

Zooming out, the contradictions become sharper: on the asset side, some funds "blew up" due to hitting volatility and had to raise funds for margin calls, while on the other side, traditional giants scooped up at low points and on-chain whales continued their big bets; on the technology side, Elon Musk's optimistic statement of "AI capabilities will not slow down, recursive self-improvement may appear in 24 months" aligns with DeepMind launching Gemini Robotics ER 2, claiming robots can autonomously complete complex tasks with higher precision, jointly telling a story of continuously accelerating technology curves. The technological narrative is highly unified, yet prices are undergoing violent retractions; this dislocation represents the core tension in the current AI space: while proclaiming AGI and embodied intelligence, the underlying risk preferences and position structures are completely different—some accounts cannot bear short-term volatility and are forced to liquidate, some institutions view drawdowns as long-term entry opportunities, while some on-chain funds treat extreme volatility itself as a tradable asset. For crypto AI targets, this means that beneath the seemingly aligned "grand AI narrative," what truly determines the outcome is who is bearing the narrative's risks with what leverage and timeline.

What signals to watch for the next wave of AI trading

Looking ahead, the first layer is macro rhythms: will Situational Awareness continue to passively liquidate and directly shut down products, or will it strive for a restructuring window? Currently, there are no publicly available answers. These directions will directly influence whether the de-leveraging pressure of this round of AI thematic funds is a one-time release or prolonged into a longer "water extraction" process; correspondingly, although Citadel has taken over most of its stock investment portfolio, the acquisition price, lock-in period, and holding plan have also not been disclosed. The market can only assess whether traditional giants are picking up cheap assets or making short-term risk trades once these details are established. The second layer is the "acceptance points" for technology and narratives: Musk's assertion of "RSI arriving in less than 24 months" currently lacks verifiable technical progress support. Whether future frontier laboratories can deliver clear milestones in model capabilities and self-improvement capabilities will determine if such timelines are disproven or forced to yield to more aggressive expectations; similarly, Gemini Robotics ER 2 currently remains more at the level of release narrative, and whether it can produce quantifiable effects in real industrial or service scenarios will directly impact the speed at which "embodied intelligence" transitions from PPT to cash flow. The final layer concerns the crypto world: according to AiCoin data, the whale that built around SKHX with the approximately $31 million investment currently exhibits a lack of subsequent public details regarding additional accumulation, reduction, or hedging. Whether we see more similar addresses gradually entering AI-related assets, forming a sustained concentrated trading zone rather than isolated single-account bets, will be a crucial signal in determining whether the AI narrative on-chain is just a one-time emotional outburst or evolves into a mid-term trading narrative.

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