Cryptocurrency Market Performance
The current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.2 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.7%, which is $1.3 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $308.2 billion, down 0.86% over the past 7 days, with USDT representing 59.66% of that.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have decreased in value, while a few have increased. Specifically, BTC has seen a 7-day decline of 1.07%, ETH a 7-day decline of 1.87%, SOL a 7-day decline of 1.93%, HYPE saw a 7-day decline of 4.72%, while BEAT gained 26.04% over the past 7 days.
Market Forecast (August 3rd - 9th):
The RSI index is at 46.7 (neutral), the fear and greed index is at 24 (fear), and the altcoin season index is at 60 (neutral)
BTC: $50,000 - $67,000 (there may still be another deep pullback before the real upward trend starts)
ETH: $1,800 - $2,100 (bearish on the technical side)
SOL: $64 - $78 (affected by the overall market)
HYPE: $50-$60 (strong revenue can maintain its price)
The main theme of the market next week may be the game between "risk release" and "long-term layout." On one hand, technical bearishness, macro uncertainty, and the risk of Bitcoin forks pose significant downward pressure in the short term; on the other hand, if mainstream cryptocurrencies can indeed pull back to the aforementioned "ideal buying zones" (like $50,000 for BTC, below $2,000 for ETH), it may present a good opportunity for long-term investors to gradually build up positions this year.
Risk Warning:
The "fork storm" in August for Bitcoin (the largest "black swan" event in August): the forced signaling period of BIP-110 soft fork, eCash hard fork
Macro policy "hawkish" and expectations for rate hikes in September: the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 64.4%, which will severely suppress the performance of risk assets.
The "September curse" of historical trends and market sentiment: historically, August and September often see severe corrections, and current market sentiment and participation are close to the lows of 2018.
Understanding the Present
The SEC chairman issues an ultimatum: U.S. SEC Chairman Gensler stated that if the Congressional "Clarity Act" cannot be passed, the SEC will set its own rules for the cryptocurrency market. Meanwhile, JPMorgan pointed out that the likelihood of this bill passing this year has dropped to 37%, marking legislative uncertainty as a significant pressure on the market.
The Fed's "hawkish" pause: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged this week, but three members expressed support for rate hikes, and market expectations for a rate hike in September rose to 63.2%, with high rate expectations continuing to suppress the performance of risk assets.
Coinbase trapped in "crypto winter": Coinbase's Q2 report shows revenue and net profit have not met expectations for three consecutive quarters, with a net loss of $359.5 million, and after-hours stock prices fell more than 5%, reflecting the overall weakness of the industry impacting core trading platforms.
Bitcoin massively flowing out of exchanges: On July 27th, Bitcoin net outflow from Binance reached $333 million, setting the second-largest single-day outflow record of the month. This phenomenon occurred against the backdrop of several exchanges announcing closures, indicating that funds have not surged into leading platforms but may have shifted to private wallets.
Institutional funds shifting toward Ethereum: As Bitcoin ETFs faced three consecutive days of outflows, Ethereum ETFs attracted a net inflow of $9.23 million on July 27th, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing $11.75 million, showing a subtle rotation in institutional fund allocation.
DeFi and on-chain activity continue to shrink: A report from Binance Research indicates that the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi across all chains fell by 38% in the first half of 2026, with the total market cap of six major Layer 1 chains evaporating by 42%. However, BNB Chain's share in tokenized RWA increased to 13.5%, becoming one of the few bright spots.
Smart accounts experiencing explosive growth: Safe's smart accounts handled nearly 130 million transactions in Q2, setting a historical high, with a total account count reaching 63.4 million. Its co-founder stated that Safe is evolving from an asset holding tool into a broader range of application scenarios.
Privacy and AI narrative warming up: Amid overall market fluctuations, the privacy computing track performed outstandingly, with COTI surging by 58% in a single day, and concepts like AI agents and decentralized information networks also attracting fund rotations.
OpenAI "out-of-control AI" incident expands: OpenAI has updated its security disclosure, confirming that its AI agent, after breaching Hugging Face, accessed four other external platforms. The agent executed 17,600 operations in four and a half days, triggering urgent discussions on AI safety regulation.
Thailand's Bitkub executives charged: The Thai SEC has filed criminal charges against the exchange Bitkub and its former executives, accusing them of concealing a hacker attack in 2021 that caused over $50 million in losses and submitting false financial reports.
Macroeconomics
On July 30th, the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting of holding steady.
On July 30th, for the week ending July 25th, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 197,000, expected to be 200,000, with the previous value revised from 187,000 to 188,000.
On July 30th, the annual core PCE price index for June in the U.S. was 3.3%, down from 3.4% the previous month, in line with market expectations.
On July 31st, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is currently reported at 35.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 64.4%.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
Conviction 2026 will be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam from August 14th to 15th.
Coinfest Asia 2026 will be held in Bali, Indonesia from August 20th to 21st.
Bitcoin Hong Kong will be held in Hong Kong, China from August 27th to 28th, 2026.
Important Events
The deadline for the release of the new draft text of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate is August 7th.
On August 5th at 20:15, the U.S. will release the July ADP employment numbers (in ten thousand).
On August 6th at 20:30, the U.S. will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1st (in ten thousand).
On August 7th at 20:30, the U.S. will release the July unemployment rate.
On August 7th at 20:30, the U.S. will report on the July non-farm employment population (in ten thousand).
Project Progress
LayerZero will deprecate the relayer serving v1 (ULNv2) on August 3rd, and teams using ULNv2 need to re-anchor to ULNv301, or message transmission will stop.
Vanar is migrating to Base and plans to launch the Vanar Genesis event on August 3rd, with the first batch of AI Organizations going live and a reward pool of 10 million VANRY set up to incentivize outstanding ecological projects.
The DeFi asset management platform Zapper will shut down on August 3rd.
The DeFi yield protocol Saturn's first season will conclude on August 8th or when project capacity reaches its limit.
Token Unlocking
Opinion (OPN) will unlock 32.12 million tokens on August 5th, worth approximately $1.51 million, accounting for 8.94% of the circulation.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 430,000 tokens on August 6th, worth approximately $23.96 million, accounting for 0.19% of the circulation.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 165 million tokens on August 9th, worth approximately $1.26 million, accounting for 4.11% of the circulation.
Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 1.67 million tokens on August 9th, worth approximately $10.75 million, accounting for 0.31% of the circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools for action. Through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; using our exclusive column "Hot Selection" (dual screening of AI + experts), we identify potential assets to reduce trial and error costs. Every week, our researchers will also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hotspots and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments come with risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments under a strict risk management framework after thoroughly understanding these risks to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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