July officially concludes, but the last trading day did not end perfectly for the market.

BTC shows a double high followed by a fall in weekly and daily charts, creating a clear contrast with the global financial markets. While global stock markets generally rose, the cryptocurrency market became a outflow direction for funds, experiencing a significant adjustment since the recent rebound.

This reflects more of a funds seesaw effect.

Against the backdrop of rising risk appetite, some funds have temporarily flowed into the traditional equity market, while the cryptocurrency market has become an area for cashing profits in the short term. However, this rotation of funds does not mean that the long-term trend has changed; it is more like a rebalancing during the upward process.

Today is the first trading day of August and also a Saturday.

According to recent market operating patterns, overall liquidity on weekends is relatively limited, and the participation of large institutions decreases, therefore market volatility is expected to be more subdued than on working days.

However, another possibility cannot be ignored.

For the past six consecutive Saturdays, the market has shown slow recovery or even one-sided rebounds under low liquidity. Therefore, even if the overall remains bearish, it is necessary to guard against the main forces taking advantage of the weekend’s insufficient liquidity to complete short-term repairs through a method of “small upward—consolidation—then small upward.”

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Focus on short selling during rebounds, be wary of technical recovery over the weekend.

BTC has broken below the important support near 63500, with the short-term bearish trend continuing to dominate.

From a technical structure perspective:

• Price has been oscillating around 62900 in a consolidation;

• MACD death cross continues to diverge downwards, and bearish momentum has not significantly weakened;

• Periods below 8 hours have entered an oversold area, showing conditions for a technical rebound;

• 12-hour and daily adjustments are still not completely over, and medium-term pressure remains.

Therefore, although there is a demand for short-term repair, as long as it does not re-establish key pressure levels, rebounds should still be seen primarily as repairs rather than a trend reversal.

Operational ideas suggest:

• When rebounding close to pressure zones, focus primarily on short positions;

• If a slow upward trend appears over the weekend, do not blindly chase long; wait for confirmation of pressure before trading opportunities.

Key Positions

Support: 62200-62600-62800

Pressure: 63300-63500-63800-64300

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Focus on short selling during rebounds, watch for the formation of a bottom.

ETH fell to a minimum of 1847 yesterday before showing some rebound, but the overall trend remains weak.

From a technical standpoint:

• Daily line has broken key support at 1876, and the bearish trend still dominates;

• 4-hour MACD maintains a bearish alignment, and there has not been an effective short-term reversal;

• Weekly line formed an engulfing bearish pattern, and yesterday’s daily line also closed with a large bearish candle, overall still belongs to the adjustment phase.

However, it is necessary to note that yesterday the 15-minute, 30-minute, and 60-minute periods simultaneously showed increased volume spikes, indicating that buying funds are starting to appear at low levels.

If the price can maintain without creating new lows in the future, then this area is expected to gradually form a short-term bottom.

Even if daily adjustments have not ended, it does not exclude the market completing time-based repairs through sideways consolidation or even small rebounds, rather than continuing to drop rapidly.

Operational ideas:

• Going short in line with the trend remains the main idea;

• If a volume recovery forms over the weekend, wait for confirmation of the small trend before participating inline with the trend.

Key Positions

Support: 1850-1860-1830-1840

Pressure: 1876-1886-1895-1920

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