The start of August is in sharp contrast to July.
After a continuous rebound in July, the market entered a correction rhythm on the first trading day of August. BTC briefly retraced some of the gains from the previous two weeks, and ETH's weekly chart also showed a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating that short-term funds began to realize profits, leading the market into a new round of chip exchange phase.
However, from a larger perspective, the monthly chart is still in a bottom rebound structure. Currently, the focus should be on whether the monthly level pullback can hold the key support, rather than simply interpreting the short-term adjustment as a trend reversal.
One of the most notable characteristics of the current market is that the weekly chart is running in the middle area, and momentum is starting to weaken.
The bulls have not completely lost their advantage, but there is also a lack of sufficient momentum to continue breaking upwards. Therefore, short-term market trends are more susceptible to news and funding sentiments, fluctuating back and forth within a range.
Additionally, liquidity usually decreases further on Sundays, and reduced trading volumes mean that prices are more likely to experience quick spikes, indicating that short-term volatility risks remain high.
There is still some pressure at the macro level:
The market still has high expectations for policy tightening in September;
Geopolitical risks are re-emerging;
The overall macro environment continues to exert certain pressure on risk assets.
However, at the same time, after experiencing consecutive adjustments, the market has also started to enter a stage of extreme oversold repair, with some short-cycle technical indicators gradually improving.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Pay attention to the bullish resonance after the second bottom test, focus on observing momentum changes.
BTC fell back from around 63100 yesterday and has now entered an important support area.
From a technical structure perspective:
The daily line has broken below the key support at 63500, and the short-term bearish trend still dominates;
The 4-hour MACD bearish crossover continues to diverge downwards, with prices running along the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that the bearish power has not yet been fully released;
However, multiple cycles below 8 hours have entered the oversold area, and after the second test downwards, it is not ruled out that a bullish resonance at the daily level may gradually form.
That is to say, the market is currently at a relatively critical stage:
If the bears continue to increase volume and break through the support around 62000, the adjustment may continue further; if the support area receives capital backing and is accompanied by improved short-cycle momentum, a technical correction may be welcomed.
Therefore, what needs more attention right now is not a single direction but rather whether trading volume and momentum change synchronously.
Until there is a clear volume breakout, it is still advisable to remain patient and wait for the market to provide clearer trading signals.
Key Positions
Support:
62000-62500
61000-61500
Resistance:
63300-63500
63800-64200
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