The market in July can be summarized in one sentence:
Searching for support in decline, confirming pressure in rise, waiting for direction in fluctuation.
From the low point in early July to the peak near 69000 on July 21, Bitcoin has completed a full cycle of “down — rebound — further decline.” Currently, a more obvious M-top structure has formed on the daily level, and the market is looking for the next phase direction.
July segment review: Trend switching is more important than prediction
Looking back over July, Bitcoin dropped to around 62000, then rebounded to the 69000 area, and entered another adjustment phase.
During the entire process, we laid out around several key positions:
Long positions near the low around 62800;
Waiting for opportunities again near 61600;
Short positions preemptively laid out in the 64000—65000 area.
The market performance also validated a core logic:
The market never runs in just one direction; what truly matters is recognizing trend changes.
Starting from July 28, we anticipated the market entering a downward phase through trend structure, and subsequently, the price continued to retreat from around 65000, reaching a low near 62250, which basically met expectations.
From the rise, decline, to the second rebound and correction, the main segments of July operated around the trend line.
M-top formed, where is the key support below?
If following the M-top pattern, the theoretical adjustment target will focus on the integer mark of 60000.
Looking more precisely, the area around 59700 is an important observation zone.
However, a key change occurred in the market yesterday:
The price completed a bottom test near 62000 and did not continue to break below.
Even with spikes, they quickly retracted, indicating significant support around 62000.
So the question arises:
Has 62000 already become the bottom of this adjustment cycle?
Currently, the answer is gradually being validated.
As long as the price maintains the 61800—62000 area, then this round of decline may be nearing its end, and the market might start a new rebound cycle.
August trading thought: Focus on rebounds, not blindly chasing shorts
In the short term:
64000—64500 is currently the first pressure zone.
The highest point yesterday was near 64000, indicating that bulls are trying to break through.
If the price again retests without breaking below 62000, there are chances to retest positions at 64000, 65000, or even higher.
Aggressive traders can look for short opportunities near 63300, but the space is limited, leaning more toward quick in and out.
The real opportunities still wait for confirmation at low levels.
If the support at 61800 holds, then the targets for this round of rebound can focus on:
Breaking through 65000;
The 67000 area;
Even near 72000.
Even if there is a false breakout later, referencing the prior movement after breaking 80000, the current market has been consolidating long enough, and the rebound scenario still holds participation value.
ETH and gold: Synchronize attention on support rebounding
Regarding Ethereum:
Pay close attention to the support around 1825.
If the area between 1837—1825 stabilizes, watch for rebound opportunities, targeting around 1875 above.
Regarding gold:
The current trend also presents a cycle structure of “rise — adjustment — rebound — fall.”
Short-term pressure forms around 4058.
In the short term, look for short opportunities near 4058, targeting the 4030 area below.
If it continues to retest near 4020 or even 4000, then wait for new bullish opportunities.
Long-term observation: A year of adjustment may be nearing its end
Since October 2025, Bitcoin has undergone an adjustment period of almost a year.
During this time, there have been multiple occurrences of:
Consolidation — decline;
Then consolidation — then adjustment.
Currently, the market is entering a critical stage.
If historical patterns continue to hold, then a long-term bottom may be forming.
In one to two months, the market may finally face a real directional choice.
Personally, I believe:
The probability of Bitcoin returning to the “6” range after September and October is decreasing.
Of course, the market will never operate according to the script.
But the trend has already begun to change.
In August, focus on whether the support at 62000 is effective and whether it can regain stability above 65000.
The market will not reward guesswork, but will reward those who understand trends.
I am Lao Jin, paying attention to trends and following the market.
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