BTC 4-hour structure analysis: 62300 may become a key turning point, the market is waiting for final confirmation
Recently, Bitcoin's price trend has entered a critical phase.
Since the peak of 66924, the BTC 4-hour level has formed a relatively complete descending structure, with prices continuously testing lower support, while the rebound highs have been constantly suppressed.
However, it is worth noting that the current pullback is not a disorderly decline, but operates within the Fibonacci retracement area.
Fibonacci three levels, forming a complete trading range
During this round of pullback:
64765: 23.6% retracement level
63429: 38.2% retracement level
62349: 50% retracement level
These three levels form a clear defense path.
Around 64700, it is currently the rebound pressure area.
The price has attempted to break upwards multiple times but has been suppressed by the downward trend line, indicating that short-term bears still hold the initiative.
Near 63400, it is the current area of contention between bulls and bears.
What is truly worth paying attention to is:
Near 62300.
This corresponds not only to the 50% Fibonacci retracement but also to an important support area previously tested multiple times.
If the price reaches here, the market will face a crucial choice.
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61800 confirmation may become a turning point in market sentiment
From a larger cycle perspective, the 60,000 round number has always been an important psychological defense line for the BTC market.
In March of this year, Bitcoin completed a bottom-building rebound near 60,000.
Now that we are in August, it has been about 5 months since the last bottom confirmation.
The market has experienced a round of increase and also undergone a cooling of sentiment.
Currently:
The increase is no longer frantically pursuing gains;
The decline has not resulted in panic selling.
Such a phase often breeds a new direction.
If the subsequent price pulls back to 62300 and further tests 61800 to stabilize, then the market may form a consensus again:
The 60,000 area may become the bottom of this phase.
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Why choose to wait rather than chase higher?
The biggest difficulty in trading is not following the trend when it's clear, but making judgments when the market is most hesitant.
Currently, BTC is not suitable for blindly chasing long positions.
Above:
64700-65000 is the first pressure;
After a further breakthrough, pay attention to the 65500-66000 area.
Below:
62300 is the core support;
61800 is the final confirmation area.
If there are signs of a stop-loss near 62300, combined with an increase in trading volume, then this area may become a good layout zone.
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Written at last
[Bitcoin 64000-64700 short, watch 63000-62300]
[Ethereum 1870-1900 short, watch 1850-1835]
The market never gives opportunities at the most comfortable positions.
When everyone is optimistic, risks often begin to accumulate;
When the market is quiet and doubts increase, chances begin to arise.
As a saying in trading goes:
Sell when the noise is loud, buy when it is silent.
BTC is currently waiting for the final confirmation.
Whether 62300 holds and whether 61800 completes the pullback will determine the direction of the next stage of the market.
[Gradually build long positions between 62300-61800, aim for 68000-70000]
Patiently wait for the market to give an answer.
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