Last night, the US stock market experienced a wave of long-awaited broad gains.

However, the market sentiment after the close was quickly pulled back into a tense state by two heavyweight earnings reports—SpaceX and AMD almost simultaneously released their latest quarterly results after hours. The numbers themselves have their highlights, but the market reaction was surprisingly consistent: both declined.

SpaceX fell over 7% after hours, while AMD dropped over 9%. Both companies exceeded revenue expectations, and the guidance was not bad. Why did the funds still choose to vote with their feet?

The answer comes from the same reason—the market's "passing line" for the AI narrative has been raised to an almost harsh level.

1. SpaceX: Rapid growth, but burning money faster

SpaceX delivered its first quarterly earnings report since going public.

Revenue of $7.8 billion, exceeding market expectations. As a "debut," this figure is presentable. But the problem lies in the capital expenditure side.

The earnings report shows that SpaceX's capital expenditures in the second quarter reached $18.369 billion, of which about $16 billion was invested in AI computing infrastructure. This figure is far higher than analysts' previous expectations of $13.2 billion.

$16 billion is almost equivalent to the total revenue of SpaceX for two quarters. In other words, for every dollar the company makes, it is burning over two dollars on AI infrastructure.

Market concerns about this "burn rate" are directly reflected in the stock price. Although Musk maintained a highly aggressive long-term vision during the earnings call—bringing the company's annual revenue target of $1 trillion forward from 2031 to 2030—these long-term narratives clearly did not soothe investors' concerns about short-term cash returns.

Musk also emphasized that the market severely underestimated Starlink's potential. He stated that in less than a decade, Starlink is expected to provide major global internet services in most countries that allow operations. SpaceX's long-term growth path is anchored on three pillars: Starlink's expansion, Starship's commercialization, and the return on investment from AI infrastructure.

But a harsh reality is: if capital investment cannot quickly translate into quantifiable revenue growth, the trillion-dollar revenue target is just a number on paper.

What makes the market even more anxious is that after the earnings report was released, the company will face the unblocking of 910 million shares—this number even exceeds the current freely traded float. Such a large-scale release of shares will almost inevitably create heavy supply pressure on the stock price.

In short, SpaceX's situation is quite awkward: Long-term narratives are fully loaded, short-term spending is excessive, and the share structure is poor. It possesses nearly all the elements of a "great company," but at the current moment, it is still some distance from being an "ideal investment target."

2. AMD: Numbers fully exceed expectations, but the market wants "significantly exceeding expectations"

AMD's earnings report, from a numerical standpoint, is almost perfect.

Data center business revenue of $6.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 107%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 15.6%, is the core engine driving overall performance. Total revenue of $11.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%, sets a new historical high, surpassing the market expectation of $11.28 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $1.66 exceeded analysts' expectations of $1.62.

The guidance is also positive: third-quarter revenue is expected to be about $13 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $12.52 billion; adjusted gross margin of about 56%.

In the AI business sector, AMD is accelerating its challenge to NVIDIA's dominance. CEO Lisa Su announced that the second-generation Helios AI server, equipped with the MI455X accelerator and TSMC's "Venice" processor, has fully entered production and is expected to start shipping in the coming months. Reports indicate that AMD will begin delivering related AI servers to Meta and OpenAI by the end of this quarter.

Almost all numbers indicate a very favorable situation, yet the after-hours stock price plummeted over 9%.

Why? Because AMD's stock price has already doubled this year, and the valuation premium granted by the market has reached an extreme level—DCF fair value is only about $130, while the actual stock price is as high as four or five hundred dollars. Under this valuation structure, "exceeding expectations" has become the minimum requirement. Investors want "even more exceeding expectations"—higher AI business growth rates, stronger guidance, and more aggressive long-term goals.

When the market's expectations for a company are raised to the ceiling, even a "good" earnings report may be punished for being "not good enough."

3. New Standards for AI Earnings Reports: Spend Smartly, Maintain Revenue, Set High Guidance

The after-hours performance of SpaceX and AMD reveals a market paradigm shift that is taking place.

AI remains the hottest trading narrative in the US stock market, but the threshold for "participating in AI" has significantly increased. In the past, as long as a company mentioned AI in its earnings report and showed capex growth, the stock price would rise. Now, the market demands a more complete logic:

• No blind spending—capital expenditures must have a clear path to returns, and cannot burn twice the revenue as SpaceX does

• Core revenue must not be affected—the investment in AI cannot come at the cost of the core business's profitability

• Future expectations must be extremely high—guidance, growth rates, and market share targets cannot be low at all

Only by meeting all three standards can one receive market rewards. Missing any one could lead to a situation where "good news fully released becomes bad news."

4. In Conclusion: The US Stock Market is Becoming "Meme-like": Tools Are More Important Than Predictions

As the standards for judging earnings reports are pushed to such extreme heights, the characteristics of the US stock market are also subtly changing.

Any good news tends to spike sharply—because funds are extremely crowded in the AI narrative, and the density of directional bets is very high, once there is truly unexpected news, buying will quickly surge in.

However, even a slight deviation in expectations can lead to violent pullbacks—also due to crowding, any disappointment can be amplified into panic selling. The after-hours performances of SpaceX and AMD are typical cases in this "high expectations + low tolerance" environment.

This trend is increasingly resembling the volatility logic of meme coins in the cryptocurrency space—not driven by fundamentals, but by emotions and expectations. In this situation, managing risk becomes exceptionally important.

Currently, BIT brokerage has launched a call option buying function, which can help investors insure their held assets, strictly lock in downside risks, and allow investors to navigate frequent large fluctuations with ease.

【Risk Reminder】The analysis and opinions contained in this article are for market information organization and personal observation only, do not constitute any investment advice, offer or invitation to offer, nor constitute a recommendation for buying and selling related securities. The financial data and forecasts cited in the text are as of the time of publication; please refer to the company's official financial reports and public disclosure documents for discrepancies. Options trading involves significant risks and is not suitable for all investors; the options purchased may expire worthless, resulting in a complete loss of the premium, and specific risks should be referred to in the option trading terms. Investors should make their own decisions based on their financial situation and risk tolerance and consult independent professional advisors. This article is contributed by an external special author, and the opinions expressed in it are solely those of the author and do not represent the official position of BIT; BIT does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the content.

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