Summary of Today's Core News

1. Macroeconomic: Long-end U.S. Treasury yields break 5.25%, risk assets under pressure, interest rate hike expectations fluctuate
The yield on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen to a high of 5.25%, and the continued rise in long-end rates pressures risk asset valuations, indirectly negative for the cryptocurrency market. The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting show that some officials still retain the option to raise interest rates due to inflation risks, with the market pricing in about a 32% chance of a rate hike in September, indicating that tightening concerns have not completely dissipated. This Wednesday, the U.S. will release the July PCE inflation data, which will become the next important macro catalyst; the current market is generally in a wait-and-see state.

2. Financial situation: BTC ETF continues to experience net outflows, market loss ratio hits a multi-year low
The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF continues to show net outflows, with insufficient willingness of institutional funds to enter; funds are rotating between AI tech stocks and crypto assets, with incremental buying pressure continuously absent. On-chain data shows that the proportion of profitable BTC supply has dropped to 51.4%, hitting a multi-year low, reflecting widespread market losses, weak holding structures, and a fragile balance between selling pressure and bottom-fishing forces.

3. Technical situation: Volatility compressed to extreme values, 63,000 price level becomes potential turning point
Currently, Bitcoin has accumulated a large amount of short-term chips around $63,000, reaching an extreme peak, the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour level have narrowed drastically, and volatility has compressed to a recent low. Multiple institutions and analysts are collectively warning that a significant market fluctuation is impending. The sideways range has lasted for quite some time, and any external event could become the ignition point; the current state has entered a tense condition before a direction choice, and investors need to be highly vigilant against spike and false breakout risks.

4. Sentiment and sectors: Fear range continues, small caps experience localized hype while mainstream assets remain flat
The crypto fear and greed index reports 37, still in the "fear" range, indicating overall low market risk appetite. The sector shows an extreme differentiation pattern: large-cap mainstream coins are narrowly trading sideways almost without movement, while PORTAL surged 51.3% in a single day, ALICE is up over 11.7%, with speculative sentiment active in small-cap coins, but sustainability is generally poor, and funds quickly rotate around event-driven targets. Overall market transaction volume is about 40% lower than the 30-day average, showing significant characteristics of light trading.

Mainstream Coin Strategy and Entry Point Reference
The following is a technical analysis summary for reference of market views and does not constitute any trading advice.

1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Market characterization: Weak sideways trading with volume contraction, the price continues to run below the 20/50-day moving averages, which provide clear resistance; RSI-14 is about 44, in a neutral slightly weak range, with no clear reversal signal; $63,000 is the intraday dividing line between bulls and bears, with strong support at $62,500-$62,800 at the lower edge of the range; breaching this level opens downwards space.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $62,500 – $62,800 (intraday short-term support, lower bound of range)
◦ Strong support: $62,000 – $62,300 (dividing line between bulls and bears; breaching leads back to a weak channel)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $63,800 – $64,300 (50-day moving average resistance zone, tested multiple times recently without breakthrough)
◦ Strong resistance: $65,000 (mid-term high transaction zone; must reclaim this level to confirm a rebound trend)

• Reference ideas:
◦ A pullback to the $62,500–$62,700 range could be a light long bet on a rebound; stop loss placed below $62,100

◦ A rebound to the $63,800–$64,000 range could be a short bet; stop loss placed above $64,500

◦ During periods of extremely low volatility, avoid chasing highs and cutting lows; the main strategy is quick in-and-out within the range, and follow-through after effective breakthroughs of key positions, being cautious of false breakouts triggering stop losses.

2. Ethereum (ETH)
Market characterization: Low-level consolidation pattern, selling pressure is evident around the $1,900 psychological level; currently more inclined toward a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal; market liquidity is low, making prices susceptible to large orders, overall moving in line with Bitcoin, lacking independent market momentum.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $1,850 – $1,865 (intraday short-term support, previous consolidation platform)
◦ Strong support: $1,820 – $1,840 (bull-bear dividing line; breaching increases risk of new lows)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $1,900 – $1,910 (psychological level + intraday high point pressure)
◦ Strong resistance: $1,930 – $1,950 (100-day moving average resistance + mid-term trapped zone)

• Reference ideas:
◦ A pullback to $1,850–$1,860 could be a light long bet; stop loss placed below $1,835

◦ A rebound to $1,900–$1,910 could be a short bet; stop loss placed above $1,925

◦ Only if volume effectively stabilizes above $1,930 should one consider following through to $1,950; otherwise, treat it with a range-bound mindset.

3. Solana (SOL)
Market characterization: Missed the core support zone around $73-$75; short-term technical structure is neutral to bullish, but heavy resistance exists at $78-$80 with multiple tests failing to effectively break through; on-chain activity is ordinary, lacking independent catalysts, and the market is highly dependent on the overall trend, displaying elasticity between BTC and ETH.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $74.0 – $74.5 (intraday short-term support)
◦ Strong support: $72.5 – $73.0 (bull-bear dividing line; breaching leads back to weakness)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $76.5 – $77.0 (intraday rebound resistance)
◦ Strong resistance: $78.0 – $80.0 (mid-term high transaction zone, critical bull-bear dividing line)

• Reference ideas:
◦ A pullback to $73.8–$74.3 could be a light long bet; stop loss placed below $72.8

◦ A rebound to $76.5–$77.0 could be a short bet; stop loss placed above $77.8

◦ Breaching $72.5 suggests a primary avoidance strategy; do not rush to bottom fish on the left side; wait for a breakout above $78 to follow through.
Additional reminders for operation

1. Current volatility has compressed to extreme values, and the window for a turning point could open at any time. In a low liquidity environment, it is very easy to see spikes and false breakouts; it is recommended to operate with small positions, set strict stop losses, and avoid heavily betting on direction.
2. Core variables to monitor intraday: Changes in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, pre-market performance of U.S. stocks, and capital positioning trends ahead of Wednesday's PCE data.

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