▍First, let's look at the fundamentals: Two forces are pulling the market

The first force comes from a new round of selling in the U.S. Treasury market. On Monday local time, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury rose nearly 6 basis points to 5.31%, breaking through July's high and reaching the highest level since 2007. What does this mean? The market is increasingly skeptical of the Federal Reserve's current "cautious" monetary policy — long-term rates are being persistently pushed higher, suppressing the valuation space for risk assets.

The second force comes from geopolitical factors. Trump clearly stated on Monday: he will not seek to extend the previously agreed 60-day ceasefire with Iran and warned that if Oman "hinders" the U.S. efforts to negotiate with Iran, the U.S. may take military action against it. This signal directly boosted oil prices, and rising oil prices often indicate a renewed pressure on inflation.

With these two forces combined, U.S. stocks opened high and then fell yesterday, and today the Asia-Pacific stock markets also generally opened lower under pressure. For traders, this indicates: short-term risk appetite is shrinking, and the certainty of chasing highs is declining.

▍Next, let's look at the technical aspect: Divergence among the three main varieties

1. ETH (Ethereum): The range-bound thinking remains unchanged

ETH still maintains a range-bound pattern. Focus on the 1914—1870 range during the day, and the larger range looks at 1944—1839. Before an effective breakout of the range, it is more suitable to adopt a high-sell, low-buy approach rather than making unilateral bets.

2. SSD (Solid State Drive): Encountering resistance at high levels, direction pending

Since the low point of 1192, the uptrend is currently facing obvious resistance at high levels, and there is a short-term need for a corrective adjustment. However, it is worth noting that no reversal signal has yet appeared.

In terms of operation, it is recommended to closely observe the 1649 key position:

• If it breaks below 1649, then after the U.S. stock market opens in the evening, you can look for high short opportunities;

• If it does not break, then the market will likely maintain high range-bound movements, and after adjustment, buying opportunities can still be sought.

3. Hynix: Short-term adjustment pressure is greater

Hynix failed to surge yesterday, and the short-term adjustment pressure is more apparent than that of SSD. Currently, the main support level is at 1175; if it falls effectively below this level, it will enter a deep adjustment.

Specific strategy: You can wait for the 4-hour level to break below 1175, then short on the rebound within the 1175—1186 range, with a stop loss at 1231 and a target towards 1100.

▍Finally, a few words from the heart

The market always cycles between ups and downs; what truly tests traders is not the accuracy of their predictions, but discipline and risk control. This analysis provides thoughts and key points, not "guaranteed operations".

• If you want to learn more details and specific operations, see you in tonight's live broadcast room, where we will analyze the market on the spot and look at the K-line logic in real-time.

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