Today's core news summary

1. Macroeconomic: The US dollar weakens + rate hike expectations cool, risk appetite marginally repairs
Short-term US Treasury yields slightly retraced, the US dollar index continued its weak fluctuations, and market pricing for the Fed's September rate hike remained below 30%. The macro liquidity environment has marginally warmed, providing mild support for risk assets. This week, the Fed will release the minutes from the July meeting, and the market will further capture policy signals, currently in a stage of oscillation and repair during a data vacuum period.

2. Funding: ETF saw overall net outflows last week, institutional participation moderately decreased
As of the week ending August 14 Eastern Time, the total net outflow from US Bitcoin spot ETFs was approximately $390 million, setting the largest weekly outflow in nearly six weeks, mainly affected by geopolitical risks and oil price rebounds, leading institutions to reduce exposure in the short term; Ethereum spot ETF experienced a slight net outflow of $2.26 million, with BlackRock's ETHA seeing the highest weekly outflow of $16.39 million. Despite significant weekly outflows, the selling pressure has eased in recent trading days, with a technical repair rebound appearing.

3. Sentiment: Fear and greed index returned to neutral, selling pressure stages exhausted
The crypto fear and greed index rose to 50, officially leaving the panic zone and returning to a neutral level, with marginal improvement in market sentiment. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's net inflow to exchanges continues to decline, reducing selling pressure momentum; however, derivatives open interest and funding rates remain at a neutral and low level, with insufficient appetite for chasing prices, overall still undergoing a repair trend under the existing capital game.

4. Industry dynamics: Hedge funds significantly reduced their BTC ETF holdings, industry reshuffling continues
The SEC's second-quarter holdings document shows that well-known hedge funds such as Brevan Howard and Graham Capital have significantly reduced their positions in BlackRock's IBIT, with reductions exceeding 70%, reflecting professional institutions' cautious outlook on mid-term trends. On the other hand, the chain abstraction meme launching platform Printr announced it will close at the end of August, increasing survival pressure for small and medium projects, with growing industry concentration.

Mainstream coins' intraday strategy and entry points reference
The following is a summary of technical analysis, for market perspective reference only, not constituting any trading advice.

1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Market characterization: A rebound has completed after probing the bottom at the 4-hour level, sitting above short-term moving averages, with the MACD forming a golden cross, leading to slight short-term bullish momentum repair; however, there is a dense trapped position around $65,000 above, and the rebound volume has not continuously expanded, still categorized as a range repair rather than a trend reversal, treated as a slightly strong oscillation intraday.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $63,400 – $63,600 (short-term buy support, oscillation midpoint)
◦ Strong support: $62,800 – $63,000 (watershed for bulls and bears, breaking below interrupts the repair rhythm)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $64,800 – $65,000 (round number + previous dense transaction area)
◦ Strong resistance: $65,400 – $65,600 (50-day moving average pressure + mid-term trapped area)

• Reference ideas:
◦ Steady entry into the $63,300–$63,500 range can try long positions with light holdings, stop loss placed below $62,900

◦ If a rebound approaches the $64,800–$65,000 range and is under pressure, it can short, stop loss placed above $65,500

◦ Avoid chasing high in a background of insufficient volume, primarily quick in and out within the range, follow through on breakout of key positions with significant volume

2. Ethereum (ETH)

Market characterization: Performance is weaker than Bitcoin, oscillating narrowly around the round number of $1,900, with ETF fund outflows suppressing rebound momentum; solid support around $1,860 below, with significant moving average pressure at $1,930 above, overall linked primarily to Bitcoin, lacking independent market momentum.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $1,870 – $1,880 (short-term buy support)
◦ Strong support: $1,850 – $1,860 (bull and bear divide, breaking below returns to weak oscillation)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $1,910 – $1,920 (intraday peak + short-term pressure level)
◦ Strong resistance: $1,935 – $1,945 (100-day moving average pressure)

• Reference ideas:
◦ Steady entry into the $1,865–$1,875 range can try long positions with light holdings, stop loss placed below $1,850

◦ If a rebound approaches the $1,910–$1,920 range and is under pressure, it can short, stop loss placed above $1,935

◦ If volume effectively stabilizes above $1,920, it can follow through to target the $1,935–$1,945 range; if it breaks below $1,850, watch and wait is recommended

3. Solana (SOL)
Market characterization: Maintains a narrow oscillation pattern, with $75 being a balance point between bulls and bears, on-chain activity is lukewarm, lacking independent catalysts, with the market largely dependent on the overall market trend; overall elasticity falls between BTC and ETH, treated with a range-band strategy.

• Key support:
◦ First support: $74.5 – $74.8 (short-term buy support)
◦ Strong support: $73.5 – $73.8 (bull and bear divide, breaking below returns to weakness)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $76.5 – $77.0 (near previous peaks)
◦ Strong resistance: $78.0 – $78.5 (mid-term dense transaction area)

• Reference ideas:
◦ Steady entry into the $74.3–$74.7 range can try long positions with light holdings, stop loss placed below $73.5

◦ If a rebound approaches the $76.5–$77.0 range and is under pressure, it can short, stop loss placed above $77.8

◦ If breaking below $73.5, it is recommended to avoid, follow through on breaking above $77 with volume
Operating supplement reminders

1. The market is still in a repair phase of existing capital games, with heavy pressure from trapped positions above, and incremental funds have not fully returned, light position operations and strict stop-losses are recommended to avoid blindly chasing high.
2. Key intraday observation variables: Tech stocks' performance linkage after US stock market opens, movement of the dollar index and US Treasury yields, and the daily fund flow of Bitcoin ETFs.

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