Yushu Technology surged 629% on its first day: After reaching a peak of 1,100 yuan, will there be a "kill the bulls" scenario tomorrow?

CN
21 hours ago

CoinWResearch Institute

On August 19, Yushu Technology (688836) officially landed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board, with an issue price of 150.80 yuan per share. On the first day of listing, the company opened at 1100 yuan per share, up 629.44% from the issue price, but the stock price gradually fell back, eventually closing at 892.58 yuan per share, an increase of about 491.9% from the issue price. The highest price of the day was 1100 yuan, the lowest price was 882 yuan, and the transaction volume reached 15.416 billion yuan, with a turnover rate exceeding 56%. Based on the total share capital of 404.46 million shares after the issue, the closing market value was approximately 361 billion yuan.

From the first-day trend, Yushu Technology exhibited clear characteristics of high opening and high volatility. The opening price once reached 7.29 times the issue price, and the closing price fell back about 18.9% from the intraday high, but still maintained nearly 5 times the increase from the issue price. Meanwhile, the company had approximately 30.877 million unrestricted tradable shares at the beginning of its listing, accounting for only 7.44% of the total share capital after the issue. With relatively limited tradable shares, the transaction volume and turnover rate on the first day were both at a high level, showing that market trading activity was quite high and price competition was intense.

It is worth noting that on the first day of listing for Yushu Technology, the A-share spot market and the perpetual contracts in the crypto market formed a continuous price observation window. Before the listing, the UNITREE perpetual contracts on CoinW were significantly higher than the IPO issue price. Around August 15, the price of UNITREE on CoinW was about 90 to 92 dollars, corresponding to an implied valuation of about 36.4 to 37.2 billion dollars, while the market value corresponding to the issue price of Yushu Technology at 150.80 yuan was about 60.993 billion yuan (approximately 8.4 to 8.5 billion dollars), a difference of about 4.3 to 4.4 times.

After the A-share market opened on August 19, the stock price of Yushu Technology rose directly to 1100 yuan, an increase of 629.44% from the issue price, corresponding to an opening market value of about 445 billion yuan. At the same time, the UNITREE perpetual market continued to operate at a high level, and the high valuation expectations formed in the crypto derivatives market did not rapidly decline due to the opening of the A-share market. Subsequently, Binance officially launched the UNITREEUSDT perpetual contract at 10:45, providing a trading entry point for more market participants; due to the large fluctuations on the first day of listing, Binance later adjusted the funding rate settlement cycle of the contract from 8 hours to 4 hours.

From the current real-time prices across various platforms, the UNITREE perpetual contracts are still in a state of high volatility. At the close on August 19, the UNITREE perpetual price on CoinW was about 119 dollars, while on Binance it was about 121 dollars; due to the fast changes in real-time prices, there may be differences at different times. Thus, cross-platform prices are more suitable for observing market liquidity and short-term sentiment, rather than being simply understood as the "valuation differences" of Yushu Technology across different platforms.

From the price evolution perspective, more attention should be paid to the issue price of 150.80 yuan, the UNITREE perpetual price on CoinW before listing of about 90 to 92 dollars, and the price changes between A-shares and various perpetual markets after listing. The implied valuation corresponding to the pre-market price on CoinW was significantly higher than the IPO issue price, indicating that the market had already factored in relatively optimistic growth expectations before the official opening of the A-share market. However, from a valuation perspective, the current price needs to pay more attention to whether future fundamentals can continue to meet market expectations. High valuations have already incorporated optimistic judgments regarding the growth of the robotics industry, Yushu Technology's commercialization progress, and the future expansion of revenue scale to a large extent. If the narrative hype and revenue growth cannot continue to exceed market expectations, valuations may still face re-pricing. However, perpetual contract prices are influenced by factors such as leverage, funding rates, liquidity, and trading periods, and their price fluctuations are also significantly higher than those of traditional stock markets. Therefore, they are more suitable as a supplementary indicator for observing market expectations and cannot replace the price discovery of the A-share spot market itself.

On the next trading day, two aspects can be focused on: first, the price linkage between the A-share spot and perpetual contracts. Due to the trading session differences between A-shares and perpetual contracts, it is necessary to observe the price of UNITREEUSDT, the order book depth, and whether there is a significant deviation between the mark price and index price during the trading hours of A-shares, and to pay attention to whether the perpetual contracts can maintain stable following as new A-share spot prices emerge. Second, whether the capital at high transactions around 1100 yuan triggers a "long squeeze." Against the backdrop of a decline in global market risk appetite and increased macro uncertainty, the funds that transacted at high positions around 1100 yuan on the first day face significant unrealized loss pressure. If market sentiment weakens, some high-position funds may concentrate on stopping losses and exiting after the market opens tomorrow, potentially triggering further declines in stock prices and forming a negative feedback loop of "long squeeze." It is worth closely observing whether Yushu Technology can quickly absorb the pressure to sell at high positions after the opening at 9:30 on August 20, and whether there are significant concentrated selling signals in transaction volume, price, and bid-ask changes.

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