Since last night until this morning, the cryptocurrency market has welcomed a strong rebound.

As of the time of writing, AiCoin's market data shows that BTC once surpassed 70,000 USDT and is currently reported at about 69,464 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 7.79%; ETH reached a peak of about 2,334 USDT, with a 24-hour increase peaking at 18.42%.

Meanwhile, market leverage has quickly been cleared. According to AiCoin's overall market statistics, the liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately 1.191 billion US dollars, involving about 82,000 people.

This market movement is not solely triggered by a single piece of news; it seems to be the result of improved expectations in the U.S. bond market, U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory outlooks, and concentrated short positions being liquidated.

1. U.S. Bonds Take a Breather: Treasury Expands Long-Dated Debt Buybacks

One of the key macro catalysts for this round of market movement is the U.S. Treasury's announcement on August 19 to expand the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks.

The Treasury stated that starting from September 9, it would at least double the liquidity support buyback operations for 10-20 year and 20-30 year Treasury bonds, raising the single operation limit from the previous 2 billion to at least 4 billion US dollars.

Following the announcement, long-end U.S. bond yields fell significantly, with the 30-year yield quickly dropping during the session.

It is important to note:

This is not Federal Reserve QE and cannot be simply understood as “the Treasury printing money.”

The Treasury's actions are more akin to improving long-end market liquidity by repurchasing long-term bonds and adjusting the debt maturity structure. What is truly beneficial for risk assets is the temporary easing of long-end interest rate pressures, which in turn improves the financial conditions for overvalued risk assets due to pressure on the dollar.

For assets like BTC and ETH that are sensitive to dollar liquidity and real interest rates, this is a somewhat favorable macro signal.

2. SEC Offers a Bigger Policy Package: Token Financing Finally Has a "New Script"

The second important variable comes from the U.S. SEC.

The SEC has officially proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, attempting to establish a more targeted regulatory framework for the issuance and financing of certain crypto assets.

Among the most focused proposals in the market are two types of exemptions:

Startup Exemption: Proposes to allow eligible projects to raise up to 5 million US dollars within a certain period;

Fundraising Exemption: Proposes to allow eligible projects to raise up to 75 million US dollars within 12 months.

Additionally, the SEC has introduced frameworks such as covered investment contract and investment contract safe harbor.

In simple terms:

Previously, the market debated “whether this Token is a security or not.”

Now the SEC has started further discussions:

Can we separate “the Token itself” from “the investment contracts attached to the Token”?

The proposal clearly designates covered investment contracts as the regulatory focus and suggests that under certain conditions, relevant Tokens can be separated from investment contract regulation after the project completes or permanently halts its key management activities.

This is not yet an effective legal rule, but it holds significant signaling meaning for the entire U.S. cryptocurrency sector:

The SEC is moving from “how to regulate Crypto” towards “how to enable Crypto to legally raise funds.”

3. The True Drivers of the Market Movement May Be the Shorts

The news merely ignited the fire; leverage acted as the accelerant.

After BTC broke through a key resistance level, a large number of short positions in the market were forced to stop-loss or liquidate, resulting in:

Price increase → Short liquidation → Forced buying → Price continues to rise → More short liquidations

as a positive feedback loop.

This is also why BTC was able to quickly break through 69,000, even 70,000 US dollars in a short time.

ETH performed even more aggressively, with the 24-hour increase exceeding 20% at one point.

However, there is a question here:

How do we know who is actually buying? Who exactly forced the shorts to liquidate?

This is where on-chain data becomes truly valuable.

For example, through the AiCoin Open Data API, one can directly access liquidation history, liquidation maps, funding rates, large orders, latest trades, and other data; if focusing on Hyperliquid, one can further obtain whale addresses holdings, user trades, top orders, liquidation statistics: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/opendata 

Therefore, this round of market movement cannot simply be summarized as:

"The fundamentals suddenly improved by 18%."

A large part of the price increase comes from the accelerated price after the rapid squeeze of the leverage structure.

4. Rationally View FOMC Minutes and Geopolitical Situations

The FOMC minutes released early in the morning showed that the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to maintain the interest rate range of 3.50%-3.75%, with three officials advocating for a 25 basis point increase.

Thus, the minutes are not considered dovish overall.

The reason the market did not interpret it as obviously bearish is likely because these minutes document the policy discussions from late July, while subsequent employment, inflation, and consumption data have changed.

For now, the market has chosen to ignore hawkish information, focusing on improvements in liquidity and favorable regulatory news.

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Meanwhile, the situation between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate. On August 19, Trump announced further economic pressure on Iran and threatened to take more severe measures against relevant countries and entities. Currently, geopolitical risks have effectively pushed up energy prices, with Brent crude closing at about 91.62 US dollars on August 19, and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz also being significantly affected.

Geopolitical risks are changing global inflation, dollar, and interest rate expectations, which in turn indirectly affect cryptocurrency assets.

Conclusion

Thus, what is truly noteworthy about this round of surging is not “three major positive factors suddenly appearing.”

Rather, it is:

U.S. long-end bond pressure easing + clearer U.S. crypto regulation + the triggering of a short squeeze after BTC breaks a key position.

The combination of these three forces has pushed the market from an ordinary rebound to an accelerated rally.

In the short term:

BTC: 70,000 US dollars is the first psychological barrier;

ETH: Around 2,300 US dollars is important resistance.

If BTC can effectively hold above 70,000 US dollars, there remains a possibility of continuing to pressure shorts upwards.

But one must also be aware—

The 1.2 billion dollar level of liquidations means that a significant amount of leverage has already been cleared.

If there is no new influx of funds to follow up, relying solely on the continued “squeezing of shorts,” it is easy for the market to transform from a short squeeze to a peak followed by a pullback.

Therefore, what is most to be avoided now is not misjudging the direction,

But rather: seeing others profit from short liquidations and impulsively chasing in at the last moment.

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