Let's talk briefly; yesterday's wave of growth seemed to show everyone the dawn of a bull market. At this crucial moment, I need to remind everyone to be cautious and more cautious! The timing is very coincidental. I just updated my private domain, reminding everyone that to grow, we must first overcome the 62,000 barriers, then make a strong push to 70,000, with Ethereum breaking through 2,300 and SOL reaching 87. Notifications keep coming in while still dreaming, and most users want to find a substantial excuse for this growth. After browsing nearly three hours of news, the only support for this rise is just barely sufficient. The U.S. Treasury will at least double the scale of its long-term government bond repurchase operations; simply 2 billion in repurchases can leverage a trillion in capital growth. The logic is that the U.S. Treasury's announcement of the bond repurchase plan will lead to a decrease in market bonds, which, as they become fewer, their prices will rise. This rise will link to lower yields, and when yields decrease naturally, investors will stop buying them. Major funds will consequently shift towards gold and BTC, which is the core reason for the surge.

Many friends may not understand why just 2 billion can cause such a crazy rise. Because this 2 billion has no fluff; it directly flows into the repurchase market as real investment. Coupled with the half-year contraction in the coin circle and gold, emotions were released instantly, with giants directly purchasing over 10,000 ETH, causing prices to rise. Now, let's review and address the questions everyone cares about. Is this impact the return of the bull market or the start of a trap? The core issue still revolves around this year's choices of interest rate cuts and hikes; current news does not support a return to the bull market. Especially reports from BlackRock hold no reference significance. The current market trend shows price movements precede news, testing everyone's discernment abilities. One must think independently; the reversal signals are not strong, rather stable coins hold certain advantages. The repurchase news can only indirectly indicate that expectations for rate cuts are increasing and not that the actual cuts are coming. The real trend must await the formal release of rate cut news for a small bull market to come our way.

In summary, I mentioned in previous articles that the initiation of a wave of market movement must have prior planning. Many friends hesitated when Bitcoin fell below 60,000. At that time, my suggestion was also to buy at the current price. While from both technical and news perspectives lower positions can be observed, to fully reap rewards, one must purchase at 60,000, aiming for below 60,000. If we look to 55,000, then what rebound happens is naturally unrelated to you; even if the market reverses and the bull market arrives, it might not have much to do with you. The initiation of a bull market often means movement occurs first, with news following, especially at this stage where Trump is about to face mid-term elections; the fulfillment of promises in the elections has certain fluff, yet will still stabilize the fundamentals. Remember, do not think the bull market has arrived; this growth makes me feel the risks are greater! If one desires a bull market, the price of Bitcoin will necessarily drop below 62,000, unless it can be confirmed that rate cuts are coming. This year, without rate cuts, prices will only go lower.

At the end of this article, I remind those wishing to purchase spot goods to hold off, as this is not the right time. For those reminded to buy at 60,000, do not sell at this stage; the price of 60,000 is preparation for the bull market. If you want to sell, prices must be around 100,000 or even at new highs; holding for a while longer is not a bad thing, unless your goal is to achieve a phase victory. As for contract users, you must definitely go short today, keeping profits between 1,000-2,000 points for Bitcoin and 50-100 points for Ethereum! Keep a close eye on oil prices, as they will directly affect subsequent rate cuts!

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