1. Today's Core Viewpoints
The current market shows a clear differentiation pattern: ETH continues to oscillate in a high-range consolidation, with the market primarily correcting in a platform-like manner; while storage chip-related targets (SanDisk, SK Hynix) are facing deep adjustment demands. Investors need to pay attention to controlling their positions and wait for clear signals at key levels.
2. Fundamentals: U.S. Treasury "Reverse Operation" Disturbs Global Asset Pricing
A major market variable last week came from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announcing the implementation of the so-called "Reverse Operation" plan for government bonds.
The core logic of this plan is: by buying back a large amount of long-term treasury bonds while simultaneously issuing more short-term bonds, to artificially intervene and lower long-term borrowing costs. This news initially caused long-term U.S. Treasury yields to plummet sharply, but market sentiment quickly reversed and yields turned upward, currently approaching previous highs again.
It is worth noting that Wall Street generally questions this operation by the Treasury. Against the backdrop of an increasingly expansive government debt scale, the market is starting to reassess the risk of single-asset allocations, seeking diversification through multiple varieties and categories of assets. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks face pressure challenges at high levels, and the logic of global risk asset pricing is quietly changing.
3. Technical Analysis: Operational Thoughts on Three Major Targets
⚠️ The following technical levels are for analytical reference only and represent personal observational perspectives, not trading advice. Please be sure to make independent decisions according to your own risk tolerance.
1. ETH: High-level platform-like correction, leaning towards low longs
4-hour level: The upward wave since the low on August 18 has temporarily reached a halt, and the market has entered a high-level correction adjustment phase.
Hourly level: The range of 2549—2355 exhibits a three-segment adjustment structure, likely to evolve into a high-level platform-like correction mode.
Operational inclination: The general direction maintains a high-level oscillation judgment, with operations leaning towards low longs and waiting for resonance signals after corrections rather than chasing highs.
Key Levels:
Support below: 2386, 2323
Resistance above: 2487, 2549
2. SanDisk: After oscillation, still has downward expectations, focus on 1542 key support
4-hour level: The expectation for downward correction after oscillation still exists, with pressure at 1630 remaining the dividing line between bulls and bears for this movement.
Hourly level: Currently, the main focus is on whether it can effectively break below the 1542 key support level.
Operational inclination: If the hourly line breaks below 1542, a short signal may emerge after a rebound correction; stop-loss reference at 1570, with targets successively at 1480, 1408.
Note: A break may be accompanied by rebound fluctuations, and strict discipline must be enforced.
3. SK Hynix: False break followed by deep adjustment, challenging 1223 support
Market evolution: The 4-hour level entered deep adjustments after a false breakout at 1277 and is currently challenging the 1223 support level.
Operational inclination: If the hourly or 4-hour line effectively breaks below 1223, consider going short after a rebound; stop-loss reference at 1247, with targets successively at 1165, 1129, 1096.
Note: The false breakout may have large fluctuations, please confirm the validity of the break before entering.
4. Summary and Risk Warning
Structural Judgment: ETH is oscillating at high levels, leaning towards low longs; SanDisk/SK Hynix is bearish and waiting for confirmation of the break.
Discipline First: Regardless of bullish or bearish, stop-loss and position management always take precedence over directional judgment.
Risk Warning: The above content is merely a compilation of market information and technical communication, not constituting any investment advice. The prices of digital assets and derivatives fluctuate significantly, potentially leading to total loss of principal. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance before entering the market and making decisions independently and prudently.
If you want to know more details and specific operations, see you in the live broadcast room tonight, where we will analyze the market live and discuss the logic of K-line in real-time.
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