The market volatility over the weekend was significantly higher than in the previous phase, with bulls and bears repeatedly causing liquidation, and several instances of "double kills" occurred during the day. However, the outcome shows that this round of adjustment has released some high-level leverage risks, and market liquidity has begun to gradually return to normal.

After retracing over the weekend, BTC ultimately recovered most of its losses, the weekly K-line ended with a strong bullish candle, indicating that the large cycle bullish structure is still strong.

Entering a new week, the market faces two possible paths:

If there is a direct retracement to the key weekly support early in the week and confirms its validity, the pullback can still be seen as an opportunity to go long; however, if there is no retracement and a forced upward pull continues, caution is needed for concentrated profit-taking at high levels, which could eventually form a high pullback with a long upper shadow on the weekly line.

Therefore, although the overall trend is bullish, it has entered a clear high-level oscillation digestion phase. The risk of directly chasing highs after a continuous rise has significantly increased, and it is more cost-effective to wait for a confirmation of the key support before participating.

Today is Monday, and as funds return, the market is likely to start choosing the first directional movement for the week.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: High-level oscillation, both high short and low long opportunities exist before direction is confirmed.

Currently, BTC has not yet established a clear intraday direction; the overall trend is still bullish, but in the short term, it has entered a high-level tug-of-war.

From the funding rates, the BTC weighted funding rate on positions and transaction volume are approximately 0.0097% and 0.0091%, respectively, indicating that it is still in a relatively neutral area, suggesting that although longs hold a certain advantage, it has not yet reached a clearly overheated state.

The focus will now be on the 77800—78200 area.

If we break out with volume and effectively stabilize, we can expect another challenge to 79500—80000; conversely, if multiple attempts fail, we need to guard against a retracement back to the 76800 or even 75500—76000 area.

Currently, it’s more suitable to wait for key levels rather than chasing rising and falling prices in the middle of the range.

Support: 76800-77000, 75500-76000
Resistance: 77800-78200, 79500-80000

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: High-level oscillation, general direction is bullish, short-term attention on overbought pullbacks.

ETH has continued to remain strong compared to BTC recently, showing clear characteristics of capital rotation. The influx of funds from the spot ETF has provided certain support to the market, while ETH/BTC maintains relative strength, also driving some capital to start spreading towards high-elasticity assets.

The sentiment on the contract side is also significantly bullish. The weighted funding rates for ETH are about 0.0111% and 0.0123%, which have already surpassed the 0.01% benchmark level, indicating that bullish sentiment is rising.

However, it is important to note that the daily RSI has entered the overbought area.

This means that while the general direction is still bullish, the risk of continuing to chase prices upward in the short term is increasing. Currently, it maintains a high-level oscillation on the one-hour chart, and the two-hour support has not yet been lost; as long as the key support is valid, the overall strong structure will not temporarily change.

If the price struggles to break through around 2500 after repeated challenges, caution should be taken regarding a technical pullback; if a pullback to 2400—2420 or even 2360—2380 shows clear support, it could be worth paying attention to the next round of trend-following opportunities.

Support: 2400-2420, 2360-2380
Resistance: 2494-2500, 2550-2570

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