Gold has been rising recently, following the same logic as bitcoin:native, with the market trading the narrative of “dollar depreciation/U.S. fiscal credit discount.”

The biggest contradiction is also clear: the Treasury finds long-term interest rates too high and wants to find ways to push them down; however, the Fed is concerned about high inflation and is temporarily unwilling to cooperate, even leaving the possibility of interest rate hikes open.

So right now, everyone is actually watching how Warsh plays his next move.

His actions will determine the major direction of the market going forward.

If the Fed starts to cooperate with the Treasury by halting interest rate hikes or even shifting to rate cuts while continuing to lower long-term interest rates, it could indeed lead to a super bull market for hard assets like gold and BTC.

On the contrary, if the Fed continues its hawkish stance or even raises rates, with the Treasury solely supporting long bonds, then this logic hasn’t fully closed the loop, and BTC is more likely to experience fluctuations or even a pullback.

Therefore, everyone should understand one thing: the real significant market movement isn’t initiated by the Treasury but when the Fed also starts to cooperate, so watch for this news.

Currently, in the absence of good news or bad news, the situation may just be fluctuating between 7.7 and 7.9.

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