How to make good use of the assets in hand to effectively buy the dip later?

This is exactly what I have been thinking about recently,

So let’s participate in #OKX Million Planner: If I have 1 million, how would I allocate it now?

First, let’s discuss the logic I’m referring to. Please don’t just copy it; copying will lead to problems,

because everyone has different conditions, different market understandings, different tolerances for drawdowns, and different understandings of assets, so the construction of an investment framework needs to rely on oneself. I am just giving everyone a reference:

First, the current background is:

bitcoin:native recently surged by 30%, the US Treasury expanded long-term bond repurchases, long-term interest rates are under pressure, and the US dollar is weakening, "dollar depreciation / debasement trade" is becoming a new macro trading logic.

Meanwhile, from August 17 to 24, the US spot BTC ETF had a total net inflow of about 2.255 billion dollars over six trading days, indicating that there has been a significant support from spot funds in this round of market.

But the problems are also very obvious: BTC has risen rapidly in a very short period, and the price range of 80,000–83,000 dollars is becoming a new watershed. The market is currently focused on the first pullback around 75,000–76,000 dollars, as well as the potential acceleration after a true breakthrough at 83,000 dollars;

Moreover, the next 30 days happen to span the PPI on September 10, CPI on September 11, and FOMC on September 15–16, so this month is very likely not to walk quietly in one direction, and I expect it to be a bouncing monkey market!

Here’s my coping strategy:

1️⃣30% Spot Basic Position: Let’s have a presence in the market.

300,000 U will not be fully put in at once.

First purchase: 150,000 U

When BTC is around 78K–80K, I will first establish a 15% basic position.

The reason is simple:

We must always acknowledge one possibility: what if this time it doesn't turn back? Are you present? Missing out means losing the opportunity of an entire bull market.

So this purchase is not because I think 79K is very cheap, but rather I am willing to pay a small insurance premium for "not missing out".

2️⃣Second purchase: 150,000 U

I won’t buy immediately, but will prioritize waiting for a normal pullback around 76K–78K.

If the opportunity doesn’t arise, that’s fine; I’ll just set up a dual-currency financial product in this range to enjoy the interest.

Because there will still be a right-side strategy later.

3️⃣10% Regular Investment Position: Specifically to tackle "I don’t know."

100,000 U divided into four parts.

Fixed weekly purchase of 25,000 U BTC.

No matter the price at that time is 76K, 80K, or 85K.

Why?

Because there are always aspects in investing that we cannot predict.

Since we can’t predict, we shouldn’t pretend we can.

The meaning of a regular investment position is not to achieve the lowest cost, but to reduce the cost of making the wrong judgment.

This 10% is like a "counter-self-importance device" in the entire system.

4️⃣45% Flexible Funds: The part that truly determines the rate of return

450,000 U will be split into four bullets.

First level: $75K–76K

Invest 150,000 U.

This is what I consider to be the most worthwhile normal pullback currently.

If BTC drops from 81K to this level, but the ETF, dollar, long-term interest rate, and fundamentals do not deteriorate significantly, I will think: this is a release of profit, not a trend destruction.

I am willing to buy such a drop.

Second level: $70K–72K

Invest 100,000 U.

If it drops to this level, the market sentiment must have clearly worsened.

However, as long as the core logic hasn’t changed, I will actually be happier.

Because my principle has always been:

A price drop and a logic deterioration are two completely different matters.

If the price drops but the logic hasn’t changed:

That’s called an opportunity.

If the price hasn’t dropped much but the logic has changed:

That’s called a risk.

Third level: $65K–67K

Invest another 100,000 U.

If we really come back to this area in the next 30 days, I won’t change my plan due to market panic.

Because:

True left-side trading is not being brave when it’s dropping, but deciding in advance how to handle it before it drops.

But this is the last left-side fund.

I will not keep averaging down.

Fourth level: Breakthrough $83K

The last 100,000 U is specifically reserved for the right side.

Only if the daily line effectively stays above $83K, and subsequently pulls back to the $81.5K–83K range without breaking down again, will I buy.

This 100,000 U is extremely important.

Because it addresses another type of error: allowing myself to buy more and more as the price drops, but not allowing the market to prove that I’ve missed the low point.

Previously, my system leaned towards left-side; now I am willing to leave 10% for right-side corrections, but only 10%. I won’t overturn the entire strategy due to FOMO.

5️⃣For the remaining 15%, I would rather do nothing.

I’ll keep the last 150,000 U in USDT to earn coins flexibly, which can be called upon anytime.

Many people believe that all funds must be working to be called investment.

I increasingly disagree.

Cash itself is a position.

It doesn’t buy returns.

It buys:

Options.

If a black swan suddenly appears, I have money.

If BTC presents an outrageous price, I have money.

If my judgment is completely wrong, I still have the qualification to rethink.

So this 15%, in principle, does not need to move for a month.

6️⃣ When to take profit?

For me, BTC is a long-term asset that I want to continuously increase in quantity, not a trading item that must be cleared after 30 days.

My trading style is not short-term and fluctuating, so once I buy, I might wait for a larger trend, talking about taking profits is a false proposition.

I can only say that at least I would consider this topic only after it doubles.

7️⃣ When to acknowledge a mistake?

This is the most important part of the entire plan in my opinion.

I will never acknowledge a mistake just because the price fell.

But if two of the following three conditions occur, I will pause the entire buy plan:

① BTC closes below $63K for two consecutive daily candles;

② The US BTC ETF has a cumulative net outflow exceeding 1 billion dollars over five days;

③ After CPI / FOMC, the macro logic clearly reverses, and the dollar and long-term US bond yields strengthen significantly in sync.

If any two of these three are met:

I will stop regular investments, cancel outstanding buy orders, and no longer add positions.

All remaining funds will go back to USDT.

Because what happens at this time is no longer just a price drop, but it may be that the conditions I originally relied on for bullish moves have changed.

In investing, one must learn to distinguish: the market temporarily does not recognize me and the facts have proven I was wrong.

The former can wait. The latter must be rethought.

8️⃣ What is the biggest risk of this plan?

1）BTC suddenly surges to 100K.

Then I will definitely miss out on a part.

Accept it.

Missing out on profits is not a risk; big losses are a risk.

2）The logic of the US Treasury and dollar depreciation trades reverses, and the Fed is more hawkish than the market expects, with long-term rates rising again.

This would undermine the very important macro logic at present.

3）ETF funds shift from sustained inflow to sustained outflow.

Because whether this round of market can change from "short covering" to a real new trend ultimately still requires real spot buying to continue.

9️⃣ Finally, a summary:

My logic is very simple: it’s not about betting the 1 million U on whether BTC rises or falls, but using this 1 million U to buy the initiative when facing different market paths in the future.

If it rises to 100K, I have BTC.

If it drops to 70K, I have U.

If it drops to over 60K, I still have the courage and plan.

If the facts prove I was wrong, I won’t have leverage pushing me to hold on stubbornly.

This may not be the plan with the highest return in the next month, but it is the plan that best fits my style.

I don’t seek to win every time; I only seek to give myself leeway at any time.

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