If you only look at the US stock index hitting new highs, it’s easy to be blinded by the superficial prosperity! From macro discount rates to the "picky" differentiation in the AI supply chain, to the Federal Reserve's policy tone at tonight's Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, the market is in an extremely fragile and complex "mid-rotation" phase.
Now is absolutely not a one-sided, mindless bull market, but a situation interweaving impulsive rises and rapid pullbacks. Today, we will uncover the truth of the market, the trading response strategy for tonight, and the latest "TradFi perpetual benefits" launched by Bybit all at once!
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1. Deep Market Analysis: Don’t be fooled by the Nasdaq, understand the four truths of the current situation
The valuation ceiling is in the long-term debt discount rate, not in a single financial report.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is stuck at a high of 4.6%–4.68%, while the 30-year frequently peaks at 5.3%. As long as high rates do not relent, the discounted future cash flows of tech stocks will be constrained; the index may hit new highs, but the market breadth is extremely poor.
Take Marvell (MRVL) as an example; even if its performance meets expectations and it raises financial guidance, it still saw a drop of -7% after hours. The AI sector has entered an extreme "picky phase"; leaders can rise, but orders in the supply chain are fully booked, and components lacking new imagination (like some memory/optical modules) will see their valuations lowered, even leading to a situation where NVDA rises while some components fall.
September is the real policy pricing month; the meeting is just for expectation management.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole, where the market is eager to find the rate path for September, but looking back, it is more about managing expectations; September is the real action month.
Between Jackson Hole and the 9/16 FOMC, there are heavy data releases like CPI/PPI. Institutions like KPMG even list "two rate hikes within the year" as one of their baseline assumptions, which is entirely different from retail investors’ blind hope for an "immediate rate cut."
The true rotation is not yet complete; beware of high position pullbacks.
Bloomberg's term "mid-rotation" accurately describes the current phase: AI is not the only engine; US Treasury volatility can smash markets at any time. This means the future path will not be a one-sided slope bull, but rather "impulsive rises + rapid washouts."
RWA on-chain and CEX trading trends resonate.
The total value of RWA on-chain is currently about $38.4B, with roughly 2.5 million holders, and the tokenization of US Treasuries makes up the majority (tokenized stocks about $2.48 billion). Meanwhile, on the CEX side, "stocks/commodities perpetual" is the fastest-growing system this year.
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2. Information Trading Defense and Checklist
Remember: Do not go all-in on US stocks right before the speech, and do not use high-leverage perpetuals to bet on "Warsh being dovish." Do not regard a big bullish candle on Thursday as trend confirmation; maintain core positions in batches, review the 10-year Treasury yield and dollar movements, and then decide whether to chase or to rebound.
In short: the future is not about "whether US stocks will rise," but "whether AI profits can outperform the unwillingly high discount rates." The index is highly likely to stagnate at high levels; if it leans hawkish, it will first wash the crowded longs before discussing September.
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Disclaimer: This article is only a compilation of macro views and activity information sharing, and does not constitute any investment advice. TradFi perpetual and derivatives trading involves high market risk; please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
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