Before officially starting the chat, I want to mention that friends who want to trade together can register at Aster first. If new players have any operational questions, just write them in the comment area, and I will answer for everyone.
The official entry is here:
https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
Just bind the invitation code 9C50e2, and I will explain the gameplay and benefits in detail later.
Today let’s talk about something practical. Don’t let the phrase "comprehensive bull return" mislead you; just focus on two lines: one is the bull-bear dividing line, and the other is Trump's position radar.
This is the third time since this round of the bear market that BTC has impacted the average cost line for short-term holders.
Many analysts in the circle view the STH-RP indicator as the bull-bear dividing line. The logic is simple: when the price hits the breakeven line, short-term chips that can't hold will panic and run away. So in a bear market, it is always "returning when close to the cost line, retracting again when close," repeating endlessly.
What everyone is most concerned about now is: is it the beginning of a bull market or a bear market rebound? If you think it's the start of a bull market, give a 1; if you still see a bear market, give a 2. Every time it stands above the STH-RP, it deserves attention, as no one can say for certain whether this time will be the complete farewell to the bear market.
I mentioned before that once we reach the 60,000 range, we can start to allocate in batches. According to the four-year cycle, October officially marks the start of the next round. Recently, the most talked about topics in the market are institutional entries, regulatory progress, and the trends of gold and BTC, all of which essentially revolve around U.S. debt. My own observation is that, in terms of time, we are still in the bear market rebound cycle, but various indicators do indeed reflect the flavor of an early bull market. Regardless of the perspective, the area around 60,000 is definitely a bottom area, which should not be doubted.
Recently, on-chain data shows that many whales have started to take profits on long positions around 80,000, gradually closing their positions, and some even opened shorts. If it's really a bull market, there will be plenty of chances to re-entry after a dip; patience is more important than anything else at this stage. Don’t be swayed by those who shouted about 120,000 for a year and finally guessed right once. There are always opportunities; just don’t aim to buy at the very bottom, just buy in batches when prices drop. Last time I just mentioned patience, and the market took off directly, leaving many people slapping their thighs.
For long-term friends, you can build your spot positions slowly; for those trading contracts, it’s more comfortable to wait for a wave of panic or a black swan event before taking action. In fact, it’s unnecessary to stubbornly stick to BTC, as there are many rotation opportunities. If Bitcoin can stabilize between 76,000 and 80,000, many deeply oversold altcoin leaders will have opportunities first. Besides crypto, there are also many quality stocks in the U.S. market; many large tech stocks are currently undervalued. There are really many opportunities; there's no need to be anxious. Last week, the Trump concept and various altcoins surged sharply, but don't use too much leverage, and it's good to capture some swing profits.
Let’s talk about Trump's position radar: a tool to find big fund directions
Last week, many friends said they didn’t know how to track the movements of large funds. I found a useful tool for everyone:
This website discloses the positions and earnings of politicians and institutions; I will frequently share new insights during my live broadcasts.
Taking Trump's trading records as an example: TEAM rose by 102%, ELF rose by 100%, and EAT increased by 80% after buying, all of which are market movements driven by large funds.
If you are trading U.S. stocks or playing news trends, you can check out this website; looking for smart money movements is easy directly on the platform.
I'm also sharing my own approach using this tool: statistically tracking industries where Trump has maintained long positions and frequently traded, such as semiconductors, defense, and AI, which are often highly correlated with his policy directions. By correlating trading times with his public statements, executive orders, tariffs, and contract announcements, you can understand where the information asymmetry lies. Of course, it’s not to say that this happens every time. The green excess return rates displayed on the page are also very informative, showing how much each stock surpasses the market after his trades. Stocks that yield excess returns after multiple trades can be included in the observation pool for medium to long-term allocation. Besides Trump, there are also many trading data from other U.S. officials worth exploring.
Gold and the anomalous market signals
Now let's talk about precious metals. Gold has stabilized around 4600. Bridgewater's Dalio is bullish, and Goldman Sachs' internal report states directly that the Chinese government is accelerating gold accumulation, with the actual stockpile being 4-5 times that of public data.
Recently there has been a particularly anomalous combination in the market that is worth warning about: consumption is weakening, yet gold, bitcoin, copper, and shipping are collectively strengthening. If it were merely an economic recovery, this scenario doesn’t add up.
But with gold, BTC, and copper continuing to rise, once retail investors FOMO into the market, a pullback is often imminent.
Aster benefits and gameplay
Friends, both new and old, please note that if you link to Aster, you directly upgrade to 10% cash back, previously it was only 5%.
Here’s the link: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
If you want to experience trading, just go for it.
I will also share data from the Aster platform with everyone.
Recently, new coin trades all have a 1.2 times point boost; those who want to farm airdrops can participate. Season points = trading volume × 1.2x bonus (exclusive to new coins), any trades enjoy weight, combined with low fees, you can earn nearly 20% extra season points at almost zero cost.
The operation is simple: open the official website, click to connect your wallet on the right, switch to Chinese; once successful, click on "Tokens" on the left and choose newly listed ones. Recently launched tokens related to U.S. stocks are all in there. 
Today, it's a bit of a pity that I didn’t catch BTR; now new projects don’t rally for several days like before; basically, they complete a wave in three days. Recently, I noticed the NET project on Robinhood is pretty good; if you’re into it, you can check it out; the mechanics and gameplay align well with RWA and the Meme ecosystem and have high short-term heat. I mainly focus on the big market and occasionally share good finds when I scout them out.
Let me provide new friends with a beginner's guide: Aster DEX is a multi-chain decentralized perpetual contract exchange that supports high leverage and cross-chain operations, and also has low fees. The sideways market is just right for exploring derivatives. Just a reminder: crypto investments carry risks, participate rationally. You don’t need traditional registration; just connect your wallet to use it, and it can be done in a few minutes. Be ready with a Web3 wallet like MetaMask or WalletConnect, and add supported networks like BNB Chain and Ethereum. Open the official website and click "Connect Wallet," authorize your wallet selection, and you’re done. After the first connection, transfer some USDT from centralized exchanges, and you can check balances on the dashboard, choosing between spot or perpetual modes. It’s recommended that newbies test with a small amount first to get familiar, starting from low leverage. The platform's perpetual contract fee rate is very low, paired with the funding rate mechanism, resulting in very low actual costs.
To claim activity rewards, just look for the "Promotions" tab, complete tasks like the first transaction, and wait for the system to automatically issue transaction fee refunds or bonuses.
I mainly use Aster for trading altcoins that haven’t hit the top platforms yet; listing is quick, and it can open 5x contracts. Sometimes I’ll enter a small position of around 100-180 USDT to experience it, which is the most comfortable way to play when others are FOMOing.
The so-called altcoin season: is it a comprehensive bull return, or a localized market?
Now the RWA narrative is trending, with LIT, HYPE, and ASTER being discussed, but these types are mostly platform-focused and have average cost-effectiveness. Friends investing for the long term may find decent returns. I mentioned previously that HYPE was in the 55-80 range, resembling the vibe SOL had back in the day; it’s recently shown potential, so I'll discuss it with everyone in more detail if there’s a chance.
It seems that the Meme trend in South Korea has nearly peaked. I want to highlight the RWA direction spearheaded by the founder of Robinhood, which everyone should pay close attention to. Meme coins are tied to RWA assets, and this could be the first shot of this bull market. The previous explosion of inscriptions was also led by ORDI, back when no one was paying attention to this signal. After each market cycle, I will review; the next round of SOL-level opportunities and the narratives for a bull market must be identified in advance.
Is this altcoin season really here just because Bitcoin is nearing 80,000? Looking solely at the market, it’s easy to develop the illusion of a "comprehensive bull return": in the past month, 80% of the top 100 tokens by market cap have reclaimed the 50-day moving average; the total market cap of altcoins has increased by over 20 billion in just a few days. However, unlike previous capital spills leading to an all-encompassing altcoin season, this time it resembles a vampiric recovery driven by Bitcoin. While altcoins are collectively rising, the lead remains in Bitcoin's hands; on-chain altcoin season indexes indicate that Bitcoin's market share is still at a high of 60%. Looking at a longer timeline of 90 days, the vast majority of altcoins are still underperforming Bitcoin.
So in this rebound, which altcoins have emerged? The funding is particularly picky, and the movement is within a local structural bull market. One category includes new revenue engines like LIT with a rise of 178%, ENA at 59%, ETHFI at 54%, where funds are buying based on their ability to generate trading flow and income mechanisms; another category comprises established DeFi blue chips, where AAVE rose by 52% and CRV by 50%. When incremental funds are limited, the market favors protocols that can collect fees and have real blood-generating capabilities; a third category consists of pure sentiment Memes, like PUMP rising 168% and SPX by 36%, which avoid high valuation projects, opting for pure speculative targets instead. To some extent, PUMP also belongs to the first category, attracting ongoing real income.
What is the funding abandoning? It’s clear that traditional venture capital narrative coins with no on-chain activity or dividend generating capabilities are being discarded, that is, VC ghost chains. These assets have fundamentally become background players in this rebound, struggling to even keep up with the average market increase, and many public chains have gone silent. Therefore, from an operational perspective, you should either embrace DeFi blue chips and income-generating assets listed in the rankings or take minimal positions on leading Memes; steer clear of high FDV garbage coins that merely promise outcomes without substance, and don’t let your chips slip away in a false altcoin season.
Four practical uses of MACD
A few days ago, I organized practical applications of MACD to share with everyone. Most market teachings tell you to buy on a golden cross and sell on a death cross; the biggest issue with this is the lagging effect. By the time the cross happens, the stock price has often already risen by over 10%. Here are four practical judgments to consider: The first, when the histogram turns from green to red while the stock price stands above MA20, that’s the most standard entry signal; the second, when the histogram is above the zero axis, first shortens then lengthens while the stock price tests without breaking MA20, this is a point for adding positions; the third, if the histogram turns red but the stock price remains below MA20, it’s just a bounce, not a reversal, so do not engage; the fourth, when the histogram above the zero axis clearly shortens while the stock price breaks below MA20, it’s a signal to escape, and you should exit before the day's close.
Of course, everyone uses MACD differently; this is just a reference for you.
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