This week, the BTC sentiment index has jumped from "extreme fear" to "extreme greed," but the price, approaching the 52-week moving average (approximately $81,700), has not stabilized. The pullback confirmation mechanism has failed to meet two standards - the oversold rebound and the determination of a bull market is still premature. From the perspective of the wave theory, the daily endpoint 5 is in the final stage of leaving the central A, with close attention to the construction node of the second rising central B; HYPE has also entered the construction phase of central B, with short-term focus on signs of stabilization in the support zone of $73 to $77.
1. Assessment of the Current Nature of Bitcoin's Market
1. Market sentiment index: switching from "extreme fear" to "extreme greed"
From the above sentiment index, it can be seen that after BTC experienced a rebound for nearly two months, especially with accelerated upward movement in the last two weeks, there has been a fundamental reversal in market sentiment. The market's perception of the nature of this rebound has changed, with more and more opinions leaning toward the judgment of "bull market returning." Below, we will outline our core judgments on the current stage of the market from a technical perspective.
2. Historical data pullback and confirmation mechanisms of the 52-week moving average
Figure one, Bitcoin weekly K-line chart
Based on the weekly framework, we conducted a retrospective analysis of nearly 9 years of historical data and found that whenever the market shows a significant trend reversal (i.e., switching between bull and bear cycles), it can be confirmed using a quantitative indicator, which is the 52-week moving average. This moving average has a strong noise filtering capability for mid- to long-term trends and is the watershed for distinguishing between bull and bear markets. To enhance the execution capability of this indicator, we break it down into two dimensions of quantitative confirmation standards:
①. Position status (trend direction determination)
• Bull market environment: Price continues to operate above the 52-week moving average, and the slope of the moving average is turning upward;
• Bear market environment: Price continues to operate below the 52-week moving average, and the slope of the moving average is diverging downward;
• Overbought/volatile: Price oscillates around the moving average repeatedly, and the moving average flattens (absolute slope converges within the threshold).
②. Breakthrough/break confirmation cycle (filtering false signals)
• Effective breakthrough (bear to bull): The weekly closing price continuously steadies above the moving average for 2-3 weeks; a single week piercing followed by a drop is considered a false breakout and is not confirmed;
• Effective breakdown (bull to bear): The weekly closing price stays below the moving average for 2 weeks; a single week spike is not confirmed.
3. Current market attribute judgment
According to the above quantitative standards for bull-bear transitions: the current coin price has approached the 52-week moving average (approximately $81,700), but has not effectively broken through, and this moving average is still in a downward phase. Referring to the confirmation mechanism, a bull market requires the price to be above the moving average for two consecutive weeks and the slope to turn upward, both of which are currently unmet. Therefore, we believe that the current BTC market still belongs to the nature of an oversold rebound, and determining a bull market is still premature. The overall market is in a transition and confirmation period.
2. Analysis of Bitcoin's Daily Level Trend Structure
Figure two, Bitcoin daily K-line chart
In the previous weekly review of this section, we used wave theory to conduct a systematic analysis and positioning of the rebound structure that started from Bitcoin's low point of $57,820 on July 1. This period will introduce a wave theory analytical framework to provide a multidimensional recounting and cross-verification of the same rebound market. Our goal is to deepen the reader's understanding of the evolutionary path and trend nature of the current market structure through mutual verification and cross-checking of different technical systems, thus constructing a more three-dimensional and objective market cognition framework to assist future assessments.
1. As shown in (figure two): The rebound that started from the low of $57,820 on July 1 has clearly presented a five-section rebound structure from (0-1) to (4-5) at the daily level; among them, the three movements (1-2), (2-3), and (3-4) overlap and constitute the first rising central (i.e., central A) of this rebound. The current coin price is operating at the departure stage (4-5) away from central A.
2. For kinetic energy comparison regarding central A: A comparison of the upward force of the entry segment (0-1) and departure segment (4-5) shows that the rebound force of the departure segment is significantly greater than that of the entry segment, and there is no divergence in kinetic energy between the two. Based on this, it is inferred that after the completion of segment (4-5), the market will likely enter a wide-ranging fluctuation period of 2-3 weeks, constructing the second rising central (i.e., central B) again. Once completed, the departure segment from central B will be initiated, which is expected to temporarily stabilize above the 52-week moving average and further challenge the key resistance level of $82,850, refreshing the rebound high. Further tracking and judgment will be carried out then.
3. Bitcoin Weekly Market Forecast and Operational Strategy
1. BTC Weekly Market Trend Forecast
This week’s core view: closely monitor the termination position of "endpoint 5" on the daily line and the potential construction of the second rising central.
2. Core resistance levels
• First resistance area: $81,700 to $82,850 area (previous important threshold)
• Second resistance area: Around $84,500 (previous important resistance area)
• Third resistance area: $90,000 area (critical integer threshold)
3. Core support levels
• First support level: $73,500 to $75,000 area (previous important support level)
• Second support level: $67,300 to $69,100 area (previous important support level)
4. This week's operational strategy (excluding the impact of sudden news)
①. Medium-term strategy:
Figure three, Bitcoin - Daily K-line chart: (position monitoring model)
Position monitoring model: As shown in (figure three), the current coin price has effectively broken through the "long-short channel," and the market structure has changed in the short term. The current medium-term position is zero, and we temporarily maintain an empty position and observe.
②. Short-term strategy: Utilize a 30% position, set a stop loss point, and find arbitrage opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30 minutes/60 minutes as operation cycles).
③. In short-term operations, to dynamically adapt to the complex evolution of the market, we have formulated the following operational plan in advance.
•Light positions on strong support areas for trying long.
• Opening a position: When the coin price pulls back to the above first or second important support levels and shows a clear stabilizing pattern, along with the quantitative model issuing bottom signals, around 30% long positions can be established.
• Risk control: Set initial stop loss.
• Closing positions: When the price rebounds to near important resistance levels and combined with model signals, positions can be gradually liquidated for profit taking.
4. HYPE Trend Structure Analysis
Figure four, HYPE 4-hour K-line chart
1. In the 4-hour framework: The upward trend initiated from the low of $51.11 on August 2 has been clearly dissected into a nine-segment upward structure from (72-73) to (80-81); among them, the three segments (73-74), (74-75), (75-76) overlap, forming the first rising central (i.e., central A).
2. For the upward momentum analysis regarding central A: A comparison of the upward force of the entry segment (72-73) and departure segment (78-79) shows that the upward force in the departure segment is significantly greater than that in the entry segment, and there is no divergence in momentum between them. Therefore, after the completion of segment (78-79), the current operating segments (79-80), (80-81) are likely constructing the second rising central (i.e., central B). Once central B is completed, the departure segment from central B will be initiated.
5. HYPE Weekly Market Forecast and Short-term Operational Strategy
1. HYPE Weekly Market Trend Forecast
①. Core resistance levels:
• First resistance level: Around $87 to $90
②. Core support levels:
• First support level: Around $77;
• Second support level: Around $73;
This week's core view: Focus on observing the nodes of the completion of central B's construction.
2. HYPE Weekly Short-term Operational Strategy
This week's short-term operations:
①. For those holding long positions: If investors have established long positions in the $50 to $52 area based on previous trading plans, it is recommended to move the initial stop loss level up to around $70 to protect existing profits and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline, holding positions until prices rise.
②. For those currently holding no positions: If the price pulls back to stabilize around the key support area of $73 to $77 and issues a clear buying signal, consider entering a light long position, ensuring that a stop-loss level is set and strictly executed.
6. Special Reminders
1. When opening a position: immediately set the initial stop loss.
2. When profits reach 1%: move the stop loss to the opening cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profits reach 2%: move the stop loss to the position of 1% profit.
4. Continuous tracking: thereafter, every time the coin price gains another 1%, the stop-loss level will be moved 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.
The financial market is ever-changing, and all market analyses and trading strategies need to be dynamically adjusted. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article stem from personal technical analysis and are for individual trading logs only, not to be construed as any investment advice or basis for operation. The market carries risks, and investment decisions should be made cautiously; do not base decisions on this.
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