Brothers, the journey in the world is not afraid of distance, and we meet our confidants along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiangye.

⚠️ The following is only a technical logic analysis of the market, for reference and exchange purposes only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Market fluctuations are severe; contracts must strictly control positions and set stop losses.

To judge whether interest rates will rise or fall, the most intuitive barometer is not what the Federal Reserve has said, but how gold moves. After Waller's speech at Jackson Hole, gold has fallen for three consecutive days, plummeting from 4490 to 4292, a drop of nearly 200 dollars. This is enough to illustrate the problem - the market is repricing interest rate expectations, and the fantasy of imminent rate cuts has basically been shattered; the duration of high rates will be longer than expected.

The new high in September is very likely to be now. Everyone shouldn't feel too much psychological pressure, but in terms of operation, we must recognize the reality: short-term capital cannot return, and there is an expectation for further decline in the market, remember to focus on shorts in the near future, as there are lower positions ahead.

1. Current Real-Time Market Status

Main Coin

• 1 Hour Cycle

  : TD‑Down3, the downward count is progressing, and prices are running below the Bollinger middle track of 78513. The MACD green bars continue to release, DIF‑323 crosses below DEA‑289, with bearish momentum dominating. KDJ is neutral around 53, not yet at extreme oversold; the downside space remains.

• 15 Minute Cycle

  : TD‑Up2, a weak rebound starts from the low of 76420; MACD golden cross red bars appear, but the price cannot even hold above the Bollinger middle track of 77537, with extremely weak rebound strength. KDJ J value at 85 is already high, and the small-level rebound may end at any time.

• Daily level: high-level consolidation, Bollinger bands are severely contracted, KDJ three-line dead cross continues to diverge downward, MACD at a high position has initially formed a dead cross, bearish volume is beginning to show, indicators are clearly bearish. The 4-hour top structure is relatively strong; the overall direction favors bears.

  

Second Coin

• 1 Hour Cycle

  : TD‑Down4, the price operates below the Bollinger middle track of 2472; MACD green bars, KDJ is low around 43. After falling from the high of 2490, the lows continue to shift downward, and the weak structure is clear.

• 15 Minute Cycle

  : TD‑Up2, starting a rebound from the low of 2381; MACD is close to a golden cross, but the price also cannot hold above the Bollinger middle track of 2423, with limited rebound momentum. KDJ J value at 78 is high, and the small-level rebound is nearing its end.

• Daily level and main coin are synchronized, with high-level consolidation + bearish indicators; the 4-hour top structure is strong, making bears predominant.

  

Gold

• 1 Hour Cycle

  : TD‑Down2, the price runs closely along the Bollinger lower track of 4297; MACD green bars, KDJ K20, D14, deeply oversold. It has fallen continuously from 4465 to 4292, with a huge drop.

• 15 Minute Cycle

  : TD‑Up1 has just started, with an oversold rebound appearing from the low of 4292; the MACD green bars converge, and KDJ turns from a low position. But this is merely a small-level oversold correction, and the larger trend with a bearish pattern remains unchanged.

• Gold has fallen for three consecutive days and has reached around 4300; there is a rebound demand due to short-term overselling, but until clear expectations for interest cuts appear, the larger direction remains bearish, and spot gold can only experience a fluctuating market.

2. Jiangye's Core Judgments

First, gold has fallen for three days, indicating a clear macro shift. After Waller's speech, the market voted with its feet; the continued sharp drop in gold indicates that funds are fleeing from safe-haven assets and repricing a high-rate environment. The new high in September is likely to have already occurred, and the next step is a process of correction and digestion. Short-term capital cannot return, so do not expect a V-shaped reversal.

Second, the bullish rebound during the day continues to weaken, with highs constantly shifting down, establishing a weak structure. The main coin has moved from 79250→77638→ now around 77200, Ethereum from 2490→2438→ now 2406; the high points in every round of rebounds are decreasing, indicating limited support from bulls, and funds are escaping using rebounds. This type of movement represents a window for shorts during upward corrections, not an opportunity to go long.

Third, it will continue to decline today, with bullish signals slowly turning bearish. The 4-hour top structure is strong, daily indicators are bearish, and the overall direction favors bears. Today’s rhythm is characterized by a bearish consolidation move, and temporary abandonment of long positions is advised. While the 15-minute small level may have a rebound, it cannot hold above critical pressure; after the rebound, it will continue to probe downward.

Fourth, two additional reminders. One is about the domestic trading environment; recently, the turmoil around Sun Ge has been significant. For those needing to withdraw or deposit funds or make trades, pay attention to the situation, as excessive momentum is not a good sign, and further tightening may occur domestically; prepare accordingly. The second is long-term favorable news; the U.S. SEC is actively promoting the formulation of cryptocurrency regulatory rules, and a clear bill is likely to be passed next year, which is a long-term positive for the industry but does not affect the current market trend in the short term.

3. Daily Operational Strategy

Overall Principle

Today, only operate under a bearish trend, and temporarily abandon long positions. If one must go long, it can only be through manual short-term trades; do not place pending orders, do not watch the market, and only participate lightly when a clear signal of a halt appears at the support level, entering and exiting quickly.

Main Coin Operations

Short Position (Main Idea, Core Strategy)

• 4 Hour White Line 77500 Short Position

  , this is today’s core entry point, stop loss at 78000, targets are 75500→75000→74200→74000.

• Current price around 77217; if it rebounds to the 77500‑78000 range and faces pressure, continue to increase short positions, with a stop loss above 78000, targets 77000→75500.

• Conservative traders wait for 79000‑79500 to short again, with a stop loss at 82000, targets 78000→77500→77000, and if broken, watch for 76500→76000→75000.

Long Position (Only Manual Short-Term, No Pending Orders)

• Stabilizing at the 75600‑75500 range, if a stop-loss signal appears, can manually participate in a light rebound, stop loss at 75000, targets 76500→77500.

• Deep pullbacks at 74500‑74200 are stronger support; if stabilized, can go long in the short term, stop loss at 74000, targets 75500→76500.

• Emphasizing: no pending orders for long positions, manual operation only, do not watch the market, and exit at pressure levels.

Second Coin Operations

Short Position (Main Idea, Core Strategy)

• Current price first observe; wait for pressure at a 2440‑2450 rebound range to layout short positions, stop loss at 2465, targets 2366→2355→2335→2318.

• Aggressive players can short in batches at the rebound of the 2430‑2460 range; stop loss at 2470, targets 2400→2320.

• Conservative traders wait for 2480‑2500 to short again, with defense at 2600, targets 2430→2400, and if broken, watch for 2370→2350.

Long Position (Only Manual Short-Term, No Pending Orders)

• 2366‑2350

  Start paying attention to manual divergence rebound longs, stop loss at 2330, targets 2440→2450.

• 2335‑2318

  Range is strong support; if stabilized, can go long in the short term, stop loss at 2300, targets 2400→2440.

• Similarly: no pending orders for long positions, manual short-term operations only, do not watch the market.

Gold XAU Operations

After a continuous three-day drop to around 4300, a short-term overselling rebound appears in the 15-minute cycle, but the larger trend is bearish.

• Short Position (Main Idea)

  : Continue shorts if the rebound is resisted in the 4350‑4380 range, targets 4300→4290, and if it breaks below, watch for 4250.

• Long Position (Only Short-term Overselling)

  : If stabilizing on a pullback at 4290‑4300 with a clear stop-loss signal, can lightly participate in a rebound, stop loss at 4270, targets 4350. Quickly in and out, since the larger trend is bearish, do not linger.

• The medium-term bullish structure has not been completely broken; the key lies in defending 4250‑4200, and only an effective breach would signify a real bearish turn. Wait for a second bottoming signal.

4. Key Price Level Summary

Summary: Gold's three-day drop indicates a macro shift, the new high in September is likely already present, and short-term capital cannot return. BTC/ETH daily high-level consolidation + bearish indicators, the 4-hour top structure is strong, bearish predominance, and rebound highs continuously shift down. Today mainly bearish, only short positions in rebounds, temporarily abandon longs or only manual short-term trades. Core short at BTC 77500, short at ETH 2440‑2450, and short at gold rebound 4350. Strictly control positions and ensure all trades have stop losses.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is only a technical logic analysis of the market, for reference and exchange purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. The financial market is highly volatile, and contract trading carries extreme risks; please trade rationally, strictly control positions, and set your own stop losses; profits and losses are self-responsible.

Thank you all for your trust and company; the market changes rapidly, and steady compounding is the long-term way. I am Jiangye, see you next time.

For real-time changes during the session and to want to follow live points, we can exchange together. Three lines jyx9188

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