Brothers, is it becoming increasingly difficult to catch the rhythm in the market recently?

A few days ago, ETH just rebounded from the vicinity of 2380, and it seemed to be steadily moving towards 2500, leading many friends to believe that it finally stabilized. However, today a substantial bearish candle directly broke through the 2400 key level, touching a low of 2382, just a step away from the previous low.

Those holding positions cannot sit still: is this a normal pullback, or is it going to continue downward? Friends with no positions are also conflicted: is it safe to enter at this level? Will I be buying halfway up the mountain?

Today's review breaks down the market clearly: what is the nature of this drop, where is the real key support, and what is the safest approach to respond next. The article is not long, but it is full of practical insights.

01 Long Cycle Setting: The rebound has ended, but the trend has not reversed

First, let's look at the larger pattern on the 4-hour level; don't feel like the sky is falling with every drop.

The current rally that started from around 1820 reached a high of 2566 before entering an intermediate correction. The previous rebound from 2386 was essentially a corrective move after a sharp decline, not the start of a new rally.

Now, the price has retreated, having broken below the short-term moving averages, and the MACD green bars have begun to expand again—indicating that the momentum of this rebound has been completely exhausted, and the market has returned to the adjustment rhythm.

But one thing must be made clear: the long-term moving averages are still trending upwards, and the mid-term bullish structure has not been completely destroyed. We are still in a deep adjustment phase of the rising process, and it has not reached the point of a trend reversal.

Some might ask: since the trend is not damaged, can we enter a position? Don't rush; the short-term trend is much weaker than you think.

02 Short-term Confirmation: Bears in Control, Trying to Catch a Rebound is Like Catching a Falling Knife

Next, look at the 1-hour level, which is the core cycle of this breakdown, and the signal is very clear.

After the previous rebound faced resistance in the 2490—2500 range, the center of oscillation has been continually moving downward; until today, with a series of substantial bearish candles, it directly broke below the previous oscillation platform, and the Bollinger Bands opened downwards, concentrating bearish energy.

Now the price is running close to the lower Bollinger band, and short-term indicators have entered the oversold area, so there may be a minor rebound for recovery during the day—but without a clear stop-loss signal, any rebound will belong to a weak repair and has very poor sustainability, making it difficult to change the short-term weak pattern.

As for small rebounds on the 15-minute level, they are even less significant. In a weak market, small scale reversals can be completely swallowed by one bearish candle. Never bet on the big trend using small cycle signals; nine times out of ten, you'll be trapped.

03 Key Defense Lines: These Two Levels Determine the Upcoming Trend

For the upcoming market, it's enough to focus on two zones: this is the battleground for bulls and bears, and it is our core reference for operations.

• The first line, core support below2380—2390. This is the low point of the previous adjustment period, and also a densely held area, considered a key defense line for intermediate bulls. If this level can be firmly held, there may be opportunities for consolidation and stabilization; if it breaks down significantly, the adjustment space will open further, and the next support will need to look at the2320—2350 range.

• The second line, rebound pressure above2450—2470. This was the oscillation platform before the breakdown, and also the pressure level of the short-term moving averages. If there is a subsequent bounce, this zone will act as strong resistance. Until the price can stabilize above this level, the short-term weak pattern will not change, and any bounce is likely to face pressure and retreat.

04 Operation Strategy: How to Respond When Holding and Not Holding Positions

Many people feel confused in such a market; should they leave or stay? In fact, there is no unified answer, the strategies for different positions are completely different.

If you are currently holding positions: when the price rebounds to the 2450—2470 range and shows signs of stagnation or long upper shadows, you can prioritize adjusting your holdings to reduce risk; pay close attention to the support area of 2380—2390, and if there are signals of a significant breakdown, don't hold on stubbornly, and be prepared for risk management.

If you are currently observing with no positions: it is not advisable to blindly enter at this position. In a weak market, the reliability of support levels will greatly diminish; rushing in easily leads to getting caught halfway up, resulting in a low profit-loss ratio. Two more prudent strategies—

• Buying the dip (priority): Wait for the price to retest the 2380—2390 range, after clear signals such as high volume stop-loss, long lower shadows, or consecutive stabilization bullish candles appear, then consider phased entries.

• Breaking through follow-up (secondary option): Wait for the price to break through the 2470 resistance level on high volume and confirm a short-term strength recovery before following up.

05 A Few Final Words

Overall, the rebound starting from 2386 has ended after failing to challenge 2500, and with today’s break below the 2400 platform, the short-term has been declared over, with the market returning to the adjustment rhythm. The price is now near key support; the next step is to see if this defense can hold.

In this market, the worst mistake is to hastily guess the bottom or the top. We don't need to predict the market; we just need to guard key positions and prepare corresponding response plans—however the market moves, we follow.

Interact: Do you think this wave will break below 2380 and create a new low? Let's discuss your views in the comments.
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The above content is a technical logic review of the market, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries extreme risks. Please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance, strictly control your positions, and set stop-loss orders.

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