1. First, the macro environment: What is the market worried about?
Yesterday (September 1st) was a day when risk assets faced collective pressure.
ETH fluctuated downwards, SanDisk spiked and then fell back, and SK Hynix saw slight fluctuations. The market did not collapse, but it was clearly in a state of "bulls are hesitant to chase, and bears are probing."
The trigger for all this cannot be separated from one term — inflation expectations.
As investors' worries about the future inflation outlook in the United States have risen again, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has risen to 5.27%, returning directly to levels prior to the "Bostic announcement of expanded bond buyback measures."
What does this mean? The long-term rates that were previously suppressed by policy have now risen again, and they have risen more sharply than before:
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is more than 10 basis points higher than it was at that time, hovering around 4.8%, marking the highest level since January 2025;
The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, rose by 6 basis points to 4.40%;
More critically, market pricing shows that the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this month has reached about 70%.
In summary, the macro situation can be condensed to one sentence: Interest rates are rising, rate hike expectations are heating up, and dollar assets are attracting capital — this has never been good news for high-volatility, high-valuation risk assets (especially cryptocurrencies). The downward fluctuation of ETH is essentially a result of macro pressures.
2. ETH: Fluctuating downwards, today's key battle at 2385
Current Technical Situation
After yesterday's fluctuations and declines, ETH's price has now returned to the vicinity of the lower support of the 2535–2385 range. In other words, today (September 2nd) has only one keyword: 2385.
This position is the core battleground of the recent long-short contest; if it is broken, the lower space opens up; if defended, there remains hope for a rebound.
Trading Ideas
Looking from two lines to provide different styles of traders:
▶ Short-term Traders
Long signal: Wait for the price to break above 2424 to re-enter, which is a clear short-term bullish signal;
Stop loss: 2380, exit decisively if it falls below, do not fight back;
Logic: Near the lower edge of the range, do not easily enter the market before direction is clear, wait for breakout signals to confirm direction.
▶ Trend Traders
Do not chase small fluctuations, only wait for breakout of the large range of 2535–2385;
Break above 2535 to look for bullish continuation, break below 2385 to look for bearish acceleration;
Maintain a wait-and-see attitude within the range and patiently wait for a real directional choice.
Today's Key Reminder: 2385 is a lifeline. Short-term traders focus on 2424, trend traders focus on range breakouts, do not repeatedly jump in the middle.
3. SanDisk: Breaks previous high and then falls back, waiting for rebound signals
SanDisk's performance yesterday was quite "exciting."
On the 4-hour chart, the market once rapidly surged, breaking the previous high of 1580, seemingly about to form a breakout — but encountered resistance around 1615 and subsequently fell back again.
What does this indicate? There is indeed capital willing to go long above 1580, but the selling pressure around 1615 is apparent, and the bullish strength is temporarily insufficient to stabilize the breakout area.
The current price is still within the low-level fluctuation adjustment range. Due to the significant ups and downs yesterday, the short-term signals are rather mixed, blindly chasing orders is not recommended.
Trading Ideas: Wait for further signal guidance after subsequent rebounds, observe first, and do not rush to act.
4. SK Hynix: Sideways with no direction, observing today
As for SK Hynix, one word: wait.
The market has entered a sideways adjustment phase on the 4-hour chart, with the main range between 1248–1157, and the current price is moving back and forth within this range, with no clear direction.
The most taboo in this situation is "itchy hands" — before a breakout from this sideways movement, any direction could slap back at any time.
Trading Ideas: Continue to observe today, wait for a breakout from the range (break above 1248 or break below 1157) before considering entry; staying in cash before then is also a strategy.
To learn more details and specific operations, see you in the live room tonight where we will analyze the market and watch K-lines in real-time to discuss logic.
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