Bitcoin fluctuates and is consolidating at the bottom, with 76,800 becoming a key short-term support. A breakthrough at 77,600 is needed to open up the space for a rebound.

Yesterday, the market provided opportunities for long positions during the rebound, with prices briefly surging to around 79,200, but this level faced significant pressure again. We have repeatedly emphasized that 78,800 and 79,200 are important resistance areas at the 4-hour level. As long as there is no effective breakthrough and stabilization above these levels, the market remains in a range-bound structure.

Indeed, after hitting 79,200, prices fell again.

In the short term, the market has entered a phase of consolidation and bottoming out, with the core area gradually concentrating around 76,600—75,500. This region is currently an important support zone. As long as there is no effective breakdown below this area, there remains a possibility for a rebound and recovery.

1. Hourly Chart: 77,600 Changed from Support to Resistance

From the hourly chart perspective, there was a rapid drop in the early morning, reaching a low of around 76,300, followed by a partial recovery of the price.

During the previous upward move, 77,600 was an important support level. However, with the price breaking below it, this level has clearly undergone a support-resistance flip.

Therefore, the most critical short-term levels are:

77,400: First Resistance in the Short Term
77,600: Current Core Resistance for Rebound
76,800: Important Support in the Short Term
76,600—75,500: Main Support Zone Below

If the price can regain 77,600, the short-term rebound potential may further increase; if it fails to break through, the market is likely to remain weak and continue testing support around 76,800. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, ideas for breaking even, and practical market insights. Scan to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,Join the community for strategies!

2. 4-Hour Chart: Consolidation Zone has Broken, but no Acceleration in Downward Movement Yet

On the 4-hour level, there has been a noticeable change.

The previously stable consolidation zone has been broken downward, but after the breakdown, the price hasn't shown significant accelerated decline; instead, there have been some lower shadows and rebounds for recovery.

This indicates that while the breakdown has occurred, the momentum is still not strong enough to define it as a trend reversal.

The 4-hour Bollinger Bands have opened up again, and the overall direction is downward, thus the short-term bias is decidedly bearish.

However, it is essential to note:

Bearish ≠ Chase the decline.

If the price breaks below 77,000—76,800 subsequently, and the 4-hour closing further confirms this, then the downside potential may genuinely open up.

3. Daily Chart: Key is Whether 76,800 is Effectively Broken

The daily chart is still in the pullback consolidation phase after the previous rise.

Although prices have fallen below the prior short-term consolidation area, a true trend confirmation has not yet been achieved.

The most concerning level here is 76,800.

If the daily chart can close above 76,800 again, the current situation can still be understood as an adjustment and indicator recovery within an upward trend.

However, if the daily closes further below 76,800, the probability of testing 75,500 below will significantly increase.

Should 75,500 also be effectively broken, the market will need to pay further attention to support around 72,400 or even 70,000.

Thus, the current observation on the daily chart should not just focus on a single bearish candle, but rather on:

Can 76,800 hold?Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, ideas for breaking even, and practical market insights. Scan to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,Join the community for strategies!

4. Weekly Chart: No Fundamental Changes in the Larger Cycle Yet

The weekly chart is still in a relatively strong structure, so this pullback cannot yet be defined as a significant trend reversal.

However, the weekly chart has shown some warning signals.

If this week continues with bearish closes and breaks below 75,500, the prior upward structure will be evidently pressured.

Thus, the weekly chart serves more as a broader directional reference, with the actual determinants of the recent market remaining the daily and 4-hour performances.

5. Open Interest: Bears Still Present During the Decline

From the perspective of trading volume and open interest, during yesterday's overall price decline, the open interest actually increased.

This indicates that new bearish capital has entered during the decline, and some shorts are still in the market.

Following the early morning drop, the subsequent rebound did not see a notable increase in open interest; instead, there was a degree of position exit.

In other words:

There is bearish support during the decline, but the rebound lacks sufficient new buying momentum.

This is also one of the critical reasons for the current weak short-term sentiment.

However, the early morning rapid decline did not result in a complete position cleanup, so the market is more likely to operate in a range-bound and bottoming manner rather than immediately experiencing a one-sided crash. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, ideas for breaking even, and practical market insights. Scan to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,Join the community for strategies!

6. Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, and Trend Indicators Further Confirm Short-Term Weakness

In terms of moving averages, the 5-day line is currently around 77,800, and the 7-day line is around 78,100. Both moving averages have not been broken again.

Therefore, the rebound needs to regain the 77,800—78,100 area first.

In terms of Bollinger Bands, the price on the hourly chart is still below the middle band, with the middle band corresponding to approximately 77,600, which resonates with the previous resistance level.

The 4-hour Bollinger Bands have opened up again, and the downward direction indicates that short-term volatility may further expand.

The Vegas channel also shows that the hourly chart has broken below the main channel, with current pressures forming at 77,400 and the 77,900—78,000 range.

Regarding MACD, the hourly chart is in a bearish crossover state, but bearish momentum is currently not exceptionally strong; the 4-hour chart is similarly weak but has not yet shown a clear acceleration signal.

The daily MACD has entered a bearish crossover, but since it is still relatively far from the zero axis, it is more inclined to be understood as an indicator recovery rather than a direct trend reversal confirmation.

7. DMI and RSI: Short-Term Bearish, but Do Not Support Blindly Chasing the Decline

In terms of DMI:

Hourly Chart: Bears in Dominance, Short-Term Direction is Weak
4-Hour: Bears in Dominance, but Strength is Limited
Daily: Bulls Still in Dominance
Weekly: Still Maintaining Bullish Structure

Thus, the current greatest characteristic is:

Short Cycles are Bearish, but Long Cycles Have Not Fully Weakened.

RSI also shows a similar structure. The hourly chart has shown signs of bottom recovery but has not re-broken above 50; the 4-hour is below 50 and is still weak; the daily chart, although retreating from high levels, still resembles an adjustment within an upward trend.

Therefore, it is not suitable to blindly chase the decline purely because the hourly chart is weakening. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, ideas for breaking even, and practical market insights. Scan to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,Join the community for strategies!

8. Next, Focus on Two Key Levels

Considering the hourly, 4-hour, daily charts and funding data, the current market can be summarized as:

A breakdown has occurred, yet trend reversal is not confirmed.

The two most important levels moving forward are:

Upper Level: 77,600

If the price can effectively break through and stabilize above 77,600, then the short-term rebound is likely to continue, further focusing on the 77,800—78,100 and around 78,300.

Lower Level: 76,800

If 76,800 can hold, then the market remains in a range-bound bottoming phase, with the potential for a rebound and recovery still existing.

If 76,800 is effectively broken, then attention should continue on 76,400 and 75,500.

And once 75,500 is lost, the downside potential needs reassessment, with further focus on 72,400 or even around 70,000.

Thus, this is not a simple “bullish” or “bearish” market.

A more accurate judgment is:

Short-Term Focus is Downward, but the Long-Term Trend Has Yet to Complete a Reversal.

The focus should be on the contest between the support of 76,800 and the resistance of 77,600.

As long as 76,800 can hold, the market may continue to build a base; to regain strength, it must first break and stabilize above 77,600.

Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, ideas for breaking even, and practical market insights. Scan to follow the public account《Bitcoin Spring》,Join the community for strategies!

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