Brothers, today let's talk about Bitcoin.

In terms of market performance, BTC surged from 62,508 in early August to 81,520, an increase of over 30%, and has now retreated to around 77,600. Just as the market was debating where this pullback would stop, another bombshell hit the news - Trump approved the inclusion of Bitcoin in the US 401(k) retirement plan, while conflicts between the US and Iran are escalating.

On one hand, there is a historical policy advantage, and on the other, geopolitical uncertainty. Is this pullback an opportunity or a risk? Today, I'll break down the market, news, and funding situation clearly.

01 Market: After a 30% Rise, a 5% Pullback

From 62,508 to 81,520, BTC has risen about 30%, marking August's main upward trend. Now the price has retreated to around 77,600, pulling back about 4.8% from its peak, which is a normal correction during an upward trend.

Key structural indicators: The 4-hour MACD is still bullish (DIF 3183.8 is greater than DEA 2373.9), and the price is also above the 4-hour Bollinger middle band (69,575) - the larger cycle bullish structure has not been damaged.

However, in the short term, it looks weak: the 15-minute MACD has already crossed bearish, and the price has also broken below the 1-hour Bollinger middle band (78,087), indicating that this pullback is still ongoing, without clear signs of a bottom.

Conclusion: The mid-term bullish structure is intact, while the short-term correction has not shown an ending signal, representing a phase of "strong long-term, weak short-term" at high levels.

02 Key Levels: 78,500—79,000 is Resistance, 76,400 is Lifeline

• Upper resistance 78,500—79,000: An important resistance zone for rebounds; any breakout here would signal a weak rebound.

• Upper resistance 79,500—80,000: If the price returns above this, bearish expectations will need to be readjusted.

• Strong upper resistance 81,520: The previous high, also the ceiling of this wave.

• Lower lifeline 76,400: The most important dividing line in the short term (corresponding to the recent low of 76,385); breaking below this will quicken the decline.

• Lower support 75,000, 72,000: The next level of support to watch after breaking 76,400.

Conclusion: Now at 77,600, the price is sandwiched between resistance and support. Looking upward at 79,000 and downward at 76,400, whichever is effectively broken first will clarify the direction.

03 News Front: One Side is Historical Advantages, the Other is Geopolitical Risks

First, let's look at the positives (policy + institutions):

• Inclusion of Bitcoin in 401(k) Retirement Plans: Trump approved the addition of BTC to the US 401(k), which opens a compliance purchasing channel for long-term funds like pensions, representing a historic policy advantage with significant mid-term implications.

• Rising Expectations for Rate Cuts in September: Traders believe the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points this month exceeds 66%, which is generally positive for risk assets.

• ETF Inflows of $3.5 Billion in August: The spot Bitcoin ETF saw its largest monthly inflow since July 2025, indicating institutional funds are entering the market with real capital.

• Strategy Continues to Accumulate Bitcoin: They purchased an additional 4,603 BTC, bringing their total holdings to 840,505, showing the firm bulls are still buying.

Now let's consider the risks (geopolitical + short-term funds):

• Escalating Conflict Between the US and Iran: The US has launched an attack within Iran, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has responded with missile and drone strikes against American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq. The rising geopolitical risks are the biggest uncertainty suppressing risk assets currently.

• Net Outflow of $237 Million from ETFs on September 1: This included approximately $201 million outflow from IBIT, indicating that previously strong institutional funds are showing short-term withdrawals.

• Concentration of Long Liquidations: Approximately $1.05 billion in long liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours, with the scale of long liquidations about 3.7 times that of shorts, indicating that short-term leverage clearing and sentiment have turned cautious.

04 Funds and Sentiment: Short-term Caution, but Don't Blindly Chase Shorts

From the position structure, the long-short ratio has risen from 0.96 to 1.29, indicating that a large amount of capital was betting on an upward trend, but since the market did not continue to break through, it consolidated into a drop, with the bulls becoming the biggest losers in this round of volatility; a net outflow of approximately $1.47 billion in the market over 24 hours shows that short-term bearish sentiment is rising.

However, it's important to note that: The current issue in the market is that bearish sentiment is gathering too quickly. After over $1 billion in long positions were liquidated, some of the leverage has already been released - if the US-Iran situation suddenly eases, or if a breakthrough occurs in negotiations in Doha, the market could quickly see a short covering.

Therefore, rather than blindly chasing shorts after a drop, it's better to focus on key price positions. Whether BTC can reclaim the $80,000 mark will be an important signal for judging if the market is recovering.

05 Operational Reference (For Reference Only, Not Investment Advice)

Bearish Strategy: If it rebounds to 78,500—79,000 and faces resistance with a 1-hour negative close, consider light shorting, with a stop loss above 79,500 and targets at 76,400 and 75,000.

Bullish Strategy: If it stabilizes on a pullback to 76,400—75,000 and shows a volume stop-loss signal, consider light long with a stop loss below 74,500 and targets at 78,500 and 79,500.

Core Discipline: Currently, it is a high-level consolidation with mixed bullish and bearish news, and the worst scenario is being caught on both sides. Geopolitical news can intrude at any moment, so positions must be light, and stop losses must be in place.

The above content is based on technical logic derived from market screenshots and public information for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is extremely volatile, and contract trading carries high risks; please make rational decisions based on your risk tolerance, strictly control your positions, and always have stop losses in place.

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