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Market Overview: As of September 3, 10:45, the perpetual contract for ETH/USDT is at $2403.60, with a 24-hour increase of 0.53%. The 4-hour chart has formed a standard M-head pattern and has broken the neckline, currently in a technical rebound stage after the breakout.

I. News: Interest Rate Hike Expectations and ETF Inflows’ Bull-Bear Battle
1. Macro Headwinds: September Interest Rate Hike Probability Rises to 62%, Beige Book Releases Hawkish Signals

The biggest variable pressing on the crypto market remains the Federal Reserve's policy expectations. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September FOMC meeting has risen to 62%, with the market quickly switching from "pricing in rate cuts" in August to "pricing in rate hikes".

The latest Beige Book published by the Federal Reserve on September 2 further reinforces hawkish expectations: economic activity has grown moderately nationwide since early July, with 10 out of 12 districts experiencing slight to moderate growth, and the job market remains broadly stable, but inflationary pressures remain stubborn. This means that the Federal Reserve lacks immediate reasons to pivot to easing.

What is even more concerning is that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have been on the rise, with analysts noting that forward rates and long-term spot yields are rising in sync, and the market is currently pricing in a cumulative rate hike of about 120 basis points. If U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, this will apply ongoing valuation pressure on high-risk assets like ETH.

Key Timeline:

• September 11: U.S. August CPI Data (the last inflation report before the FOMC)

• September 15-16: FOMC Rate Decision and Economic Projections Summary

2. Institutional Trends: Continuous Net Inflows into ETH ETFs, Funds Migrating from BTC to Altcoins

Contrasting against the macro bearish situation is the ongoing positive funding situation for Ethereum spot ETFs. According to SoSoValue data, the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF has recorded net inflows for 12 consecutive trading days, with a single-day net inflow of $10.95 million on September 1 and an additional $8.6 million on September 2, as top products like BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH received continuous subscriptions.

Notably, a structural change to highlight is that on September 1, the BTC spot ETF recorded a single-day net outflow of $236 million, while ETH, SOL, and XRP ETFs achieved net inflows. This indicates that institutional funds are undergoing a structural migration from Bitcoin to altcoins, with ETH benefiting directly as the leader among altcoins.

However, it is worth noting that the single-day inflow scale for ETFs has significantly narrowed from over $200 million at the end of August to levels in the tens of millions, indicating a clear cooling of inflow momentum. If this turns into net outflows in the future, it will exert additional selling pressure on ETH prices.

3. Ecosystem Progress: Glamsterdam Upgrade Approaches, On-Chain Revenue Growth

In terms of underlying Ethereum upgrades, the Glamsterdam upgrade has been postponed to Q3 2026, with the Sepolia and Hoodi testnets having been stably activated, and signals for mainnet launch are becoming stronger. This upgrade will reshape the mainnet block production logic, with a Gas repricing to better reflect the true resource cost, potentially improving yield expectations for institutional staking.

In terms of ecosystem data, Robinhood Chain's daily on-chain revenue has surpassed $1 million, driven by stock meme activity; native account abstraction has been included in the roadmap, which will lower the threshold for user engagement in the long term.

II. Technical Analysis: 4-hour M-head Confirms Breakout, Rebound Lacks Strength Below the Neckline
1. Pattern Breakdown: Standard M-head, Measurement Target Around 2170

From the 4-hour candlestick chart, it is clear that ETH has recently formed a standard double top (M-head) pattern:

Table

M-head measurement decline calculation: Neckline 2370 - (Double Top 2566 - Neckline 2370) = 2174. That is, if the pattern is valid, the theoretical decline target is in the 2170-2180 range.

The current price of 2403 is in the rebound phase after the breakout, and the nature of the rebound needs to be observed — if it cannot effectively recover the 2370-2400 neckline area, it belongs to confirmation of a pullback after a breakout, and after the rebound ends, it will continue to decline; if it breaks above 2420 and stabilizes, then the M-head may fail.

2. Indicator Resonance: MACD Running Below Zero, KDJ Short-term Oversold Rebound

• MACD (4-hour): DIF -16.63, DEA -13.99, MACD Histogram -5.28, both lines running below the zero axis, green histogram continues to release, mid-term bearish pattern unchanged. However, there are signs of shortening green bars, indicating a decrease in short-term downward momentum.

• RSI (4-hour): RSI1 41.58, RSI2 41.68, RSI3 44.96, all three lines are below the neutral line of 50, indicating weak bullish strength, but has not yet entered the oversold area (<30), leaving room for further downward movement.

• KDJ (4-hour): K 44.75, D 38.25, J 57.74, the J line has rapidly rebounded from a low position, crossing above the D line to form a golden cross; short-term rebound momentum is being released, but the J value is approaching 60, creating doubts about the sustainability of the rebound.

• TD Sequence: 4-hour TD Up:1, in the initial counting phase of a rebound after a decline; if it continues to rise, it may form a TD 9 buy signal, but requires confirmation with price action.

3. Key Price Level Map

III. Operational Strategy

Short-term (4-hour level)

Currently in the rebound cycle after the M-head breakout, if the rebound does not surpass the neckline area of 2400-2420, the bias remains bearish. One can set up short positions when encountering resistance at 2420-2450, with a stop-loss above 2480, initially targeting 2320, and if broken, aiming for 2170. If the price breaks above 2450 with volume, the probability of the M-head failing increases, and the short positions should be exited in time.

Mid-term (daily level)

The overall trend on the daily chart remains within a downward channel since the July 2025 peak of 4957, with the current rebound from 1384 encountering resistance at 2566. Before the September FOMC results, macro uncertainty is high, suggesting to maintain caution in mid-term positions, controlling them to below 30%, and waiting for directional layout after the rate decision on September 16.

Observers

The current position is stuck, and with the September 11 CPI and September 16 FOMC being two major risk events approaching, volatility may be amplified. It is recommended to wait patiently: either wait for the rebound to confirm the invalidation of the M-head above 2450 before going long, or wait for a breakdown below 2360 to confirm a pullback before going short, avoiding blind entries before the events.

IV. Summary

ETH is currently in a tug-of-war period between macro bearishness and institutional bullishness: the rise in September rate hike expectations pressures valuations, while continuous net inflows into ETFs provide support below. On the technical side, the 4-hour M-head has confirmed the breakout, and if the current weak rebound does not reclaim the 2370-2400 neckline, it is highly likely to continue to target the 2170 measurement point afterwards.

The September 11 CPI and September 16 FOMC are two key nodes determining the mid-term direction, and before this, the market is likely to maintain a weak oscillatory pattern. On the operational side, a main strategy is to short on rebounds, strictly placing stop-losses, and controlling positions to deal with event risks.

Risk Warning: The above analysis is based on public data and technical charts and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and leveraged trading carries extremely high risks. Please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
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