Let's talk about ETH today.

On the market, ETH surged from the August low of 2220.88 to 2566.26, an increase of over 15%, before retreating to around 2404 now. Just as the market was struggling around the integer level of 2400, another piece of news broke out: an institution transferred 142,800 ETH to centralized exchanges within the last four days, approximately worth 345 million USD.

On one hand, there is real selling pressure on the chain; on the other hand, there are favorable policies such as the SEC bill, lawmakers buying cryptocurrencies, and expectations of interest rate cuts. Can the position at 2400 hold? Today, we will clarify the market, the chain, and the news separately.

01 Market: After peaking at 2566, it retreated by about 6%, showing signs of stability in the short term

ETH rose from the 4-hour low of 2220.88 to 2566.26, an increase of about 15.6%, marking the main upward trend of the August rebound. Now it has fallen back to around 2404, a drop of about 6.3% from the high, but still about 8% above the starting point.

The key is to look at the structure: The 4-hour MACD is still in a death cross (DIF 29.66 is less than DEA 35.72), and the price is below the 4-hour EMA7 (2482.46) — the medium-term repair is not yet complete.

However, there are positive short-term signals: The 15-minute MACD has already golden crossed (column +1.46), and the price is gaining support near the 15-minute Bollinger lower band (2407.71), transitioning from a sharp fall to a bottoming process.

Conclusion: Short-term downward momentum is weakening, entering a consolidation bottoming stage near 2400, but confirming a reversal still requires breaching key resistance.

02 Key Positions: 2355—2490 is the core range, with 2464 as the reversal confirmation line

• Support below 2407—2416: 15-minute Bollinger lower/middle band, the first support in the short term.

• Support below 2397: 1-hour Bollinger lower band.

• Life line below 2355.56: Recent low, the life line of this round of correction, breaking it will open up lower space.

• Resistance above 2425—2430: 15-minute Bollinger upper band, first resistance.

• Resistance above 2464—2470: 1-hour Bollinger middle band, only regaining this level can be considered a short-term strong reversal.

• Resistance above 2489—2495: The area of previous rebound highs, corresponding to the 4-hour EMA7; look above at 2534 (previous high from an hour ago).

Conclusion: Now 2404 is within the range of 2355—2490. 2450—2470 is the central zone; staying above this indicates a bullish sentiment, while breaking below 2355 weakens this round of rebound structure.

03 On-chain and News: Selling pressure is evident, but good news is on the way

First, let's look at the negative factors (on-chain):

• Large institutional transfers: An institution transferred a total of 142,800 ETH (about 345 million USD, averaging around 2420 USD) to multiple centralized exchanges in the last four days, leaving 29,700 ETH in the address. Large transfers to exchanges often indicate preparation for selling, which is currently the most tangible selling pressure in the short term.

Next, let's examine the positive factors (policy + macro):

• Acceleration of regulatory clarity: The SEC chairman stated that the Senate will pass the Bitcoin Clarity Act within two weeks; G20 finance ministers' meeting supports a regulatory path for digital assets, making the global regulatory framework clearer.

• Lawmakers' buying plan: 24 U.S. lawmakers support a plan to purchase 1 million bitcoins (approximately 80 billion USD), which, if implemented, will create a huge buying expectation.

• Rising expectations for interest rate cuts: The U.S. added only 38,000 jobs in August ADP, below the expected 48,000, which reinforces expectations of interest rate cuts; the Secretary of Commerce also stated that interest rates will stabilize and decrease over the next six months.

• Top traders' comments: Arthur Hayes believes BTC could rise to 1 million USD by 2030 and currently prefers ETH, showing a warm sentiment.

Additionally, there’s a geopolitical aspect: The U.S. is escorting 40 oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and has repelled threats from Iran — the conflict is unresolved but has not further escalated, which signals a calming for risk assets.

04 Conclusion and Operational Reference (for reference only, not constituting advice)

Comprehensive judgment: The area near 2400 is a battleground for bulls and bears. The selling pressure of 140,000 ETH on chain is the biggest uncertainty in the short term, but policies and rate cut expectations provide support below. Chasing highs and cutting losses on both sides can easily get hit; it’s more suitable to respond within the range.

Bearish strategy: If there is a rebound to 2425—2430 or 2464—2470 faced with pressure, and the hour closes with a downward candle, try a light short position, with a stop loss above 2480, targeting 2407, 2397, and 2355.

Bullish strategy: If it stabilizes on a pullback to 2400—2397 with a continued 15-minute golden cross, try a light long position, with a stop loss below 2355, targeting 2425, 2450, and 2464.

Core discipline: At the 2400 integer level + institutional selling pressure, fluctuations will amplify, positions must be light, and stopping losses is a must.

The above content is based on market screenshots and public information for technical logical deduction, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and contract trading carries a very high risk. Please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance, strictly control positions, and set stop losses.

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