The recent pullback of Bitcoin may not be just an ordinary technical adjustment.

BTC has fallen back below 77,000 USD, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.5%–2%, and the price has mainly fluctuated in the range of 76,000–78,000 USD. Behind this round of adjustment, it is not a single negative factor, but rather a macro transmission chain that is continuing to ferment:

US-Iran situation intensifying → International oil prices surpass 90 USD → Inflation concerns resurge → Fed interest rate hike expectations heat up → US Treasury yields rise → Risk assets under pressure.

At the same time, a noteworthy phenomenon is that ETF funds have not shown a continuous withdrawal.

This means that institutions are not fully bearish on BTC, but the macro environment is forcing short-term funds to reduce risk exposure. The core contradiction of the current market has shifted from “liquidity improvement” to “uncertainty around inflation and interest rates.”

01｜Why has BTC suddenly become weak?

In the past few months, the logic of market trading has been:

Rate cut expectations + liquidity improvement + increased risk appetite.

However, now the funds have begun to reprice:

Rising oil prices + inflation risks + rate hike expectations + rising US Treasury yields.

Although BTC has the long-term narrative of “digital gold,” it is still regarded as a high-volatility risk asset in the eyes of short-term investors.

When rate hike expectations turn hawkish, funds often prioritize reducing positions in risk assets.

Therefore, the current market is forming a clear chain:

Rising oil prices → Inflation expectations heat up → Rate hike expectations turn hawkish → US Treasury yields rise → Decline in risk appetite → BTC under pressure.

This is also an important reason why BTC's recent performance has been significantly weaker than market expectations.

02｜The real problem is not the rising oil prices, but the reasons behind the rise

The fact that international oil prices have once again risen above 90 USD is not the most concerning issue for the market.

The real risk is:

This surge comes from supply worries due to geopolitical conflicts, rather than an improvement in economic demand.

After the escalation of the US-Iran situation, the market began to reprice energy supply risks, and rising energy prices often have a direct impact on inflation expectations.

The transmission logic is very straightforward:

Rising energy costs
↓
Increasing corporate production costs
↓
Inflationary pressure resurges
↓
Fed's rate cut space becomes constrained
↓
Even a return of rate hike expectations

Therefore, the current market trading is not about the “war” itself, but rather about:

Geopolitical conflicts → Energy prices → Inflation expectations → Interest rate levels → Market liquidity → BTC prices.

This is also why this time the rising oil prices have a more pronounced impact on the crypto market compared to ordinary commodity price fluctuations.

03｜The market is re-betting on “September rate hike”

As oil prices rise and inflation concerns heat up, market expectations regarding the Fed's policy path are also starting to change.

The probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 66%–68%, significantly higher than previous levels.

This precisely touches on the key variable in BTC's rising logic—liquidity.

One of the important factors that previously drove BTC's continuous strength was the market's expectations for rate cuts and monetary easing.

But when the market begins to re-evaluate:

Rate cut expectations decline + rate hike expectations rise

The valuation space for risk assets will naturally be compressed.

This is also why BTC began to show more pronounced selling pressure in the 78,000–80,000 USD range.

04｜ETF funds have not completely retreated

However, the current market is not entirely pessimistic.

If institutional funds fully turn bearish, theoretically, spot ETFs should show continuous large-scale net outflows.

But the reality is:

ETF funds have shown significant differentiation.

Some trading days saw outflows, but then funds flowed back in, indicating that long-term allocation demand still exists.

This means:

Long-term funds are still holding BTC, while short-term funds choose to reduce risks and wait for macro variables to settle.

Therefore, the real question in the current market is not:

“Are institutions still buying BTC?”

But rather:

“At what price and under what macro environment will institutions increase their allocations again?”

05｜Both bulls and bears are waiting for new catalysts

The current market presents a typical state of equilibrium.

Bearish logic:

The US-Iran situation continues to escalate

→ Oil prices rise further
→ Inflation pressure increases
→ Rate hike expectations heat up
→ BTC under pressure

Bullish logic:

ETF has not shown continuous withdrawals

→ Long-term allocation demand remains
→ If the geopolitical situation eases and oil prices fall
→ Rate hike expectations cool down
→ Risk appetite recovers

Thus, BTC is currently in this state:

Not dropping deep, but not moving higher either.

76,000–78,000 USD feels more like a transitional range as the market waits for new variables to emerge.

06｜Next, the market will focus on two variables

1. US employment data

If non-farm data shows a clear slowdown:

Job slowdown → Rate hike expectations fall back → Rate pressure eases → BTC gains rebound space.

If employment remains strong:

High rates maintained for a longer period → Liquidity expectations weaken → BTC pressure increases.

Therefore, the upcoming non-farm data could become an important node influencing market direction.

2. Changes in the US-Iran situation

If the situation eases:

Oil prices fall
→ Inflation concerns decrease
→ Rate hike expectations cool down
→ Risk appetite recovers

If the situation escalates further:

Oil prices continue to rise
→ Inflation pressure strengthens
→ Rate hike expectations rise
→ BTC faces greater pressure

Finally

This round of BTC adjustments is truly worth paying attention to, not the 1% or 2% short-term decline.

But rather, the market is re-pricing:

From trading “the future of liquidity improvement” to trading “the risks of sustained inflation and high interest rates.”

ETF funds remain resilient, indicating that institutions have not fully exited.

Therefore, the current market feels like a waiting game:

Bears are waiting for oil prices and rate hike expectations to continue escalating;

Bulls are waiting for employment data to cool down, geopolitical risks to ease, and for ETF funds to accelerate their inflows again.

Before there are clear changes in these variables, 76,000–78,000 USD may still be an important battleground range for BTC.

And the real determinants of the next round's direction may not be a single candlestick, but rather:

Who changes first among oil prices, employment, rate hike expectations, and ETF funds.

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