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Today's Observation
Broadcom delivered a financial report with the message "AI is getting faster, other areas are slowing down." FY2026 Q3 revenue was $29.591 billion and adjusted earnings per share were $3.32, both exceeding expectations. AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 221%, accounting for 56% of total revenue. The watershed is in the guidance for the next quarter: Q4 total revenue guidance of $34.8 billion is below the market consensus expectation of $35.03 billion; however, the AI semiconductor revenue guidance of $21.7 billion is above the consensus expectation of $21.33 billion. The difference between the two numbers makes it clear: AI is not the drag.
Data in One Minute
Revenue of $29.591 billion, higher than the market consensus expectation of $29.443 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share of $3.32, according to Non-GAAP measures, higher than the consensus expectation of $3.23; during the same period, GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.68.
AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion, a year-on-year growth of 221%, accounting for 56% of total revenue and about 80% of semiconductor business revenue.
Semiconductor solutions revenue of $20.839 billion, higher than the consensus expectation of $20.509 billion; infrastructure software revenue of $8.752 billion, lower than the consensus expectation of $8.877 billion, which is the only item this season that did not meet expectations.
Free cash flow of $13.665 billion.
FY2026 Q4 revenue guidance of $34.8 billion, lower than the consensus expectation of $35.03 billion; Q4 AI semiconductor revenue guidance of $21.7 billion, a year-on-year growth of 236%, higher than the consensus expectation of $21.33 billion.
By reversing the guidance, the Q4 non-AI business revenue is about $13.1 billion, only a 1.6% sequential increase from this season's $12.891 billion, while the AI business has a sequential growth rate close to 30% during the same period.
The company also provided a Q4 Non-GAAP operating profit guidance of about 66% of revenue; management stated during the earnings call that FY2027 AI semiconductor revenue is expected to double to $115 billion, and FY2028 will double again to about $230 billion, with FY2028 adjusted earnings per share expected to exceed $30.
MSX View
The controversy surrounding this financial report is quite narrow. The Q4 total revenue guidance is 0.7% lower than the consensus expectation, but the AI portion is 1.7% higher: subtracting the two shows that non-AI business is practically flat with only a 1.6% increase expected for next quarter. Broadcom's story has condensed into a single number: the share of AI semiconductors in total revenue, rising from 56% this season to an estimated 62% next season based on guidance, a 6 percentage point increase in a single quarter. This is both its strongest point and its most vulnerable point. When over 60% of revenue comes from a few custom chip customers, any change in the capital spending rhythm of any single customer will be magnified into fluctuations in overall guidance. Hock Tan's FY2028 target of $230 billion in AI revenue suggests a market share of about 40% based on third-party estimates of the AI chip market size at that time, a number that itself illustrates the magnitude of the bet.
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Risk Notice: The macroeconomic environment and volatility in the US stock market are extreme; the content of this article is for academic and research observation reference by the MSX Research Institute only and does not constitute any investment advice.
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