Let's first talk about how the 24% increase in August came about, the driving factors behind it were actually analyzed quite thoroughly last week. At the forefront was the acceleration brought about by short covering, followed by ETF and incremental funds taking on positions, and then combined with a shift in macro expectations, multiple forces collided together to push the market to such heights.
After the rise, the subsequent correction is completely normal. Corrections are actually the best indicators of market strength or weakness. Some corrections may seem sharp, but once the price drops, funds quickly step in, and even after several successive attempts to push the price down, it does not go deep, and can slowly rebound, this kind of movement generally indicates that there are still buyers at the bottom. On the other hand, if the price drops and key levels are continuously breached, with increasing volume but diminishing rebound strength, you should be cautious in such scenarios.
To assess the nature of the correction, you can focus on a few small details: how quickly the price rebounds after dropping; whether there is significant buying support near key support levels; and if the previously lost positions can be regained during the rebound. By analyzing these points together, you can basically determine whether this correction is a normal adjustment or a real trend shift.
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Back to the market. The most realistic observation point for BTC now is whether the range of 76,000 - 77,000 can be held. If this range is stable, the next step will look at 78,000. The focus at this position is on the strength of the rebound: if the price rises from a low point and can re-establish above 78,000, without just touching it and then instantly dropping, it indicates that short-term buying pressure is gradually returning. However, if it fails to break through this level after several attempts, it suggests that the selling pressure above has not been fully absorbed.
Therefore, this stage is actually quite easy to judge: first look for buyers around 76,000 - 77,000; then observe if the rebound can continue at 78,000. Beyond that is the 80,000 mark. Don’t underestimate this position as it has been the focal point of previous market battles; if the price returns to this level, it will naturally face another round of profit-taking selling pressure. Just touching 80,000 during the day doesn’t say much. It’s more convincing if it can hold above that level and not drop immediately on the subsequent backtest. As the old saying goes: maintaining stability is much more important than just rushing to that position.
As we enter September, macro data will gradually become dense.
When trading, try to separate emotions from the market analysis. When emotions run high, you may feel that the market can keep rising, but ultimately, you still need to return to the actual trends. Whether there are effective breaches at key positions, whether funds are significantly leaving, and whether the rebound still has strength—these are the core aspects. Be wary of false breakouts as well. When judging a breakout, you can give the market a little time to confirm. Sometimes being a bit slow can indeed mean earning a little less, but it can also filter out many false breakouts that just drop back right away. Each trader has their own perspective; we just follow our own pace.
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