Looking at nearly 100 years of data from 1928 to 2025, the S&P 500 averages a decline of about 1.1% in September, making it the worst-performing month of the year, with only 45% of the years ultimately seeing an increase. This means that over the past nearly 100 years, there have been more occurrences of declines in September than increases.

Of course, this does not mean that this September will necessarily see a decline, but there are indeed quite a few issues this year. The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds has already surpassed 3%, US government bond yields remain very high, and it is not yet fully determined whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. Simultaneously, the war in the Middle East has pushed up prices for oil, fertilizers, and food again.

Each of these issues individually can affect the US stock market, let alone the fact that their simultaneous occurrence will surely lead to greater pressure this September compared to previous years.

So I think it is wise to be cautious this month. While historical data may not always be accurate, given the current situation this year, the risks in September are indeed quite significant. However, if the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates in September, the positive impact on the market will increase.

Additionally, hopefully the opening of parts of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran can also help alleviate the current issues.

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