Today, Bitcoin has temporarily broken through $81,000, seemingly once again breaking the curse of falling after a meeting. To be honest, my bitcoin:native dual currency, which expires today, still chose a 5% drop and was set at $73,800, mainly because of concerns about escalating war conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, and the risk market pullback caused by rising oil prices.

However, I must thank Waller. If it weren't for his remarks, it would have been difficult for the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin to withstand the pressures brought by oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields today. Many friends only focused on the latter part of Waller's speech, which was that if inflation continues to rise in August, he would support a rate hike in September. However, he also stated that as long as inflation continues to fall back to 2%, he would be willing to support keeping the interest rate unchanged in September.

The market originally pushed the probability of a rate hike in September to nearly 60%, but after Waller's remarks, it dropped to around 50%. The yields on two-year and ten-year U.S. Treasuries both fell, and the dollar index also weakened, causing the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin to rise instantly. Unfortunately, when I was making the dual currency, Waller had not yet spoken.

However, for the risk market, the rise in oil prices is a risk transmitted through inflation, while the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar is a direct benefit that can be traded today, so the market temporarily chose the latter. Furthermore, Trump indicated that the new round of military action against Iran would not last long, so the market did not price in an escalation of the war.

But if the war cannot end in the short term and oil prices do not quickly recover, leading to the possibility of continued inflation, it is still not a good thing for the market.

@Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, one-stop trading for prediction markets

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