2026-09-04 ｜ In-depth Analysis ｜ Written by: Smoke and Rain
In just one night, BTC rose back above $80,000, reporting $80,917, with a 24-hour increase of 4.69%; ETH followed up to $2,505, rising 5.01%; SOL, DOGE, ADA, and XRP all strengthened, with the Fear and Greed Index jumping from 65 to 74 in a single day, entering the greed zone. Market sentiment has rapidly warmed. However, sentiment is sentiment, and the market is the market—understanding the funding structure, macro environment, and technical position behind this rally is crucial to determining whether it can continue. Today, let's break down the "quality" of this rally using three accounts.
01 First Account: Where is the money for the rise coming from?
In the past 24 hours, approximately $2.01 billion has been liquidated across the entire network, with short positions accounting for $1.7 billion, representing more than 80%. This means that this spike was largely driven by short covering rather than new incremental funds—those who were liquidated were forced to buy back to close their positions, pushing the price up. This is a typical characteristic of a rebound following an oversold condition: the speed of the rebound is quick, but its sustainability depends on whether subsequent incremental funds can keep up.
In terms of liquidity, BTC recorded a net inflow of $3.42 billion, and ETH saw a net inflow of $999 million, with ETFs also flowing back in $101 million in a single day, indicating that mainstream assets are indeed receiving capital replenishment. However, “replenishment” is different from “new inflows”: replenishment funds are more sensitive to price reactions, and their sustainability depends on whether the market can offer a stronger profit effect.
From a funding structure perspective, this round of increase is more closely linked to a "short covering + capital inflow" driven recovery rather than a trend initiated by large-scale incremental fund inflows.
02 Second Account: Is the macro scale loosening?
Cryptocurrency assets are highly sensitive to interest rates, and the anchor for pricing is the interest rate environment. The U.S. August non-farm payroll data to be released tonight at 20:30 is a key variable for recent interest rate expectations.
The current macro signals are quite mixed: Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if August inflation data is strong, he will consider supporting a rate hike in September, and CME FedWatch shows a roughly 60.4% probability of a rate hike in September—putting the market in a suspense regarding “to hike or not to hike”; simultaneously, initial jobless claims were reported at 206,000, exceeding expectations, while Vice President Vance called for a rate cut, and Treasury Secretary Basent expressed strong support for the development of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. The policy signals are both hawkish and dovish, leading the market to repeatedly price in the interest rate path.
The external environment is also turbulent: spot gold surpassed $4,470, up 1.88% for the day, indicating that risk-averse sentiment is still present; oil prices have surpassed $91 (Brent $95), as the Strait of Hormuz's navigation has shrunk, and crude oil inventories dropped by 4.5 million barrels in a week, with inflation pressures not alleviated; geopolitically, Iran attacked a U.S. military base, disturbing risk appetite.
From a macro environment perspective, the interest rate scale has not yet loosened, and before the non-farm data is released, external variables will continue to suppress risk assets.
03 Third Account: What does the position on the market indicate?
From the market perspective, ETH rebounded from around 2,355 to 2,505, with the 4-hour MACD maintaining a golden cross, indicating a strengthened short-term structure; BTC has returned to above $80,000, approaching the previous high of $81,520. What needs to be focused on now are the technical implications of two groups of positions: ETH’s resistance ranges at $2,534 and $2,566, which are the turning points and previous highs of this round of decline; above BTC, $81,520 serves as prior high resistance. Below, the support levels for ETH are $2,400 and $2,355, and for BTC, $74,400, which are previous support zones. Breaking above or below these positions will signify a market choice of direction; prior to that, the market is more likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation.
Another noteworthy signal is the volume: the trading volume for this rebound has significantly shrunk compared to the previous rising period (on-chain statistics show that the trading volume for the most recent complete hour candlestick was only 30% to 40% of the average of the prior 20 hours). As prices rise with contracting volume, the sustainability of the trend is usually discounted—breakthroughs without volume easily turn into spikes, while breakouts with increased volume hold more significance.
04 What to watch next?
To understand whether the market can transition from "rebound" to "trend," focus on tracking three key questions:
Will incremental funds continue to flow in: Observe whether the net inflow of ETFs and exchanges can sustain beyond a single-day pulse;
How will interest rate expectations materialize: Tonight's non-farm data, as well as subsequent CPI and Federal Reserve officials' statements, will determine the direction of the interest rate path;
The significance of key positions: Whether ETH's $2,534/$2,566 and BTC's $81,520 can break out with volume, and whether the support zones can hold.
Market conditions are always changing, but the logic can be traced. Understanding the sources of funds, the tightness of interest rates, and the significance of positions can help maintain clarity amidst fluctuations—do not predict, but respond; regard the market with respect. Whether this round of increase is a rebound or a reversal, the answer lies not in sentiment but in the three accounts above.
The above content is a logical deduction based on public market and macro information, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries significant risks. Please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
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