Today's non-farm data is indeed good, but as I said, good economic data is actually detrimental to interest rate cuts in front of the Federal Reserve, and instead gives the Federal Reserve more confidence to maintain high interest rates or raise rates. Although I do not believe there will be a rate hike in September, recently the national diesel prices in the United States have skyrocketed to a new record of $5.85 per gallon, officially exceeding the historical peak set in June 2022.

This indicates that the blockade in Hormuz has transmitted the crude oil futures prices to the real transportation and production costs in the United States. This time, the speed of the diesel price increase is clearly faster than that of crude oil. The trucking, rail, agricultural machinery, construction equipment, and a large part of industrial production in the United States all rely on diesel; after an increase of two dollars per gallon, the added costs will gradually enter freight, food, and various commodity prices.

Therefore, the increase in oil prices affects not only core inflation but will also traditionally impact core inflation. To put it plainly, if oil prices continue to rise or even if they don’t rise but remain at these high levels, the likelihood is that U.S. inflation will increase. Trump cannot solve high oil prices, and the Federal Reserve can only address it through interest rate hikes; Republicans really shouldn’t expect anything in the medium term and the election.

For Bitcoin, the reaction is the same as that of the U.S. stock market; an increase in the probability of rate hikes will inevitably lead to a decline in the risk market. This is just the expectation; if the Federal Reserve really hikes rates in October, it will be very close to the "final drop." Currently, my own bitcoin:native remains at a 5% low-buy strategy, trying not to execute trades as much as possible.

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