Bitcoin Whales' Unrealized Gains Reach Record $9.07 Billion, High Volatility May Lead to Profit Taking

Summary

Bitcoin has recently returned to around $80,000, but on-chain data shows a change that warrants caution.

The unrealized profits of whales among short-term holders reached a record $9.07 billion on September 4, although it subsequently fell to $7.51 billion; however, the high unrealized profit figures that have appeared over the past two weeks remain at historically extreme levels.

Meanwhile, on-chain activity among long-term holders who have held BTC for over five years has also significantly increased, with the 90-day average spent UTXO scale rising to about 1,500 BTC.

This indicates that although BTC is still at a high level, the chips within the market are undergoing new changes. Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

Whales' Unrealized Gains Reach Historical Extremes

The unrealized profits of short-term holder whales reached $9.07 billion on September 4, the highest level for this indicator since 2016.

Following a slight retreat in BTC prices, this figure fell to $7.51 billion, but it still remains within the top five highest levels historically, with all five of these extremely high readings occurring in the past two weeks.

What does this mean?

Simply put, the recent rise has put a large number of whales in a very considerable unrealized profit state.

When the market continues to rise, these profits may continue to be held.

However, if BTC begins to show a clear correction, some short-term whales may opt to realize their profits.

Thus, high unrealized profits themselves do not necessarily mean BTC will decline, but they do imply that potential selling pressure in the market is increasing. Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

Why Should High Unrealized Gains Be Noticed?

After a rapid rise, BTC is currently in a clear consolidation phase.

In past market cycles, short-term holders tend to take profits more easily than long-term holders.

When a large number of chips are simultaneously in profit, a characteristic of the market is:

As prices continue to rise, holders may continue to wait.

When prices start to fall, some holders may quickly choose to realize their gains.

Therefore, the current $9 billion level of whale unrealized profit is more like a “potential selling pressure” hanging over the market.

Especially considering BTC has previously experienced substantial price increases, the market needs to be cautious of profit-taking after the momentum slows. Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

Long-Term Holders Also Start Increasing On-Chain Activity

In addition to short-term whales, the data on long-term holders is also noteworthy.

CryptoQuant data shows that long-term investors who have held BTC for over five years have increased their 90-day average spent UTXO to about 1,500 BTC.

This is nearly double compared to the level of around 750 BTC in May.

At first glance, this seems like a bearish signal.

After all, the movement of chips by long-term holders easily leads the market to associate with “old players starting to sell coins.”

But it is critical to note a very important issue:

On-chain transfers do not equal sales. Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

Long-Term Holders Moving BTC Does Not Necessarily Represent Selling

The increase in UTXO spending by long-term holders may mean they are reallocating their assets or simply transferring BTC from exchanges to more secure cold wallets.

Therefore, just seeing an increase in long-term holders' on-chain activity does not directly indicate that they are cashing out on a large scale.

CryptoQuant analysis also specifically points out that the BTC being moved does not necessarily correspond to selling behavior; some of it may just be investors relocating assets for safety.

So, the key point regarding this metric is “activity increase,” not directly equated with “long-term holders are selling.” Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

What Is the Biggest Contradiction for BTC Currently?

When looking at these two sets of data together, a clear contradiction appears in the market.

On one hand, BTC continues to maintain a high price range, and the previous upward structure of the market has not been entirely disrupted.

On the other hand, whales' unrealized gains have reached historical extremes, while on-chain activity among long-term holders is also increasing.

This creates:

Strong Prices

↓

Increased Profits for Holders

↓

Expanded Whale Unrealized Gains

↓

Increased Potential Profit Taking

↓

If Prices Turn Weak, Selling Pressure May Quickly Release

This is why BTC is more worthy of attention regarding on-chain data during the high volatility phase than when simply rising. Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

Can BTC Continue to Rise After Breaking $80,000?

From a larger market structure perspective, BTC still has the possibility to continue rising.

Previous Glassnode data indicated that there was a clear accumulation area around $62,000 to $65,000, while a substantial long-term holder supply region exists around $83,000 to $86,000.

This means that $80,000 is not the only level that needs attention.

If BTC can genuinely break through and stabilize at the $83,000 to $86,000 region, then the current high-level chip pressure may be further absorbed, allowing the market to open up new upward space.

However, if BTC cannot break through the upper supply region while whales' unrealized profits continue to maintain high levels, the risk of profit-taking will gradually increase.

Thus, the most important aspect going forward is not simply watching whether BTC stabilizes above $80,000, but observing if there are ongoing funds and volume following the breakout. Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

Are Whales Buying or Preparing to Sell?

This is currently the most worthy observation question in the market.

Previous on-chain data showed that large holding addresses have continued to increase their BTC holdings, with wallets holding over 10,000 BTC cumulatively increasing their positions by over 46,000 BTC over a period of time, indicating that large investors are not simply exiting the market.

However, the current issue is that prices are already significantly higher than previous accumulation regions.

When whales enter the profit state, their behavioral logic will also change.

At lower levels, the question is:

“Is there an opportunity to buy?”

At higher levels, it becomes:

“When to cash in on profits?”

This is also why current on-chain data is more important than simply observing price charts. Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

Three Key Signals to Focus on Next

First, can BTC break through the $83,000 to $86,000 region?

If it can effectively break through this supply area, the unrealized gains of whales may continue to expand, but the market may also absorb selling pressure through higher prices.

Second, will the unrealized profits of whales continue to maintain extremely high levels?

If unrealized profits rapidly decline while BTC prices also weaken, caution is needed that profit-taking has already begun to occur.

Third, will the on-chain activity of long-term holders continue to increase?

If it’s merely wallet migration, the impact on price is limited.

However, if long-term holders’ activity increases alongside inflows to exchanges and selling pressure also rises, then the market needs to be more cautious. Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

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Follow the public account 'Bitcoin Lemon' for daily market analysis, insights, and practical viewpoints.

Conclusion

Currently, BTC does not mean an immediate market reversal just because whales' unrealized gains have hit record levels.

What is truly worth noting is that the market has entered a stage where “profitable chips are increasing.”

The unrealized profits of short-term holder whales reached a historical high of $9.07 billion, and then remained at an extremely high level of $7.51 billion, indicating a large amount of potential profit-taking in the market.

At the same time, the on-chain activity of long-term holders has also significantly increased, but currently, these movements cannot be directly interpreted as selling.

Therefore, the core contradiction for BTC is not “Is there capital to buy?” but “Can new buying pressure continue to absorb the existing profitable chips?”

If BTC can break through and stabilize at the $83,000 to $86,000 level, the market may still open up further upward space.

However, if prices continue to be blocked at high levels while whales begin to cash in profits, the risk of short-term corrections will significantly increase.