The market has finally cooled down; today is September 8th. Pay special attention to two key dates: the 15th and the 17th. Coincidentally, both dates fall next week, which will determine this year’s trends within a week. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at 78720; the real decline has yet to come. The current trend resembles more of a pullback after a rise. Absent any negative news, the pattern still looks relatively favorable. Integrating the information available, the market expects a 52% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September. BTC and ETH ETFs have seen a net inflow of over $1 billion for three consecutive weeks. Additionally, there is a funding injection towards banks and insurance companies domestically. Those wandering in the realm of old A need to stay alert, while the impact on other markets is negligible. Without discussing the domestic economy, we will analyze events relevant to the crypto circle, focusing on Bitcoin's mid-term and long-term layout; we have enough to discuss today regarding short-term contract issues.

Among users that Lao Cui has recently encountered, there are more users going long, while most users going short are already trapped below 75000. Although they are competitors, neither side has gained any advantage. Not going into too much detail about long positions, since the start of this market cycle, Lao Cui has emphasized not entering long positions; those above 80,000 are held back, and although the distance is not too far, there is still an opportunity. Let’s detail the short positions. The risk of short positions focuses primarily on this week; a short-term decline may allow everyone to breathe a sigh of relief temporarily. The market has begun to gradually release bearish signals, and the area to be cautious about is simply the bulls' last strike which might trigger a liquidation action under the pressure of substantial bearish news; aside from that, there's no need for excessive concern. This round of growth and the performance of listed coins can validate the market's fund dynamics. Ether, leading the way, although showing strength, still demonstrates stability; and nothing shines as much as XRP, which has almost repaired 50% of its decline at a high level, warranting attention.

Lao Cui summarizes: regarding the previously mentioned platform tokens, comparing BNB and OKB, there is a glimpse of OKB at high positions; BNB's strategy this year seems relatively unsuccessful due to European licensure and American pressure. Betting on this situation requires a certain level of courage. Before platform tokens change the existing rules, Lao Cui does not advise everyone to stand in alignment with the platform; platform tokens are more of a gamble on platform development. In the future, every country will have its own platform, involving data security issues, diminishing the appeal of platform tokens, making them not worthy investments. Many friends feel Lao Cui is quite conflicted, consistently fixating on interest rate cuts and hikes; the market’s statements are also very vague, initially emphasizing the importance of non-farm data, only to change their tune once non-farm data exceeds expectations, now speaking of CPI as more important. It all boils down to fixating on Waller's inflation target of 2%, perpetually placing hope on the final straw.

The conflict does not lie within Lao Cui but in market performance; last month's data shows that any time in the U.S. would warrant an interest rate increase — only now is it uncertain. The competition between China and the U.S., with AI technology still maturing yet siphoning massive funds, raises concerns about the potential outcomes should it fail. Coupled with the short-sighted strategies of the U.S. President, everyone focuses only on data during their tenure, even Biden cannot escape madness before stepping down; this cumulative negative impact could potentially lead to different results, especially with the mid-term elections at the beginning of October, marking a particularly significant timeline where any outcome is possible. Lao Cui has emphasized multiple times that personally, I lean towards a bearish trend, as even maintaining the status quo represents bad news. Subsequently, clear signals of negative news regarding law firm proposals will emerge; for those shorting, consider your options if there are chances above 80,000! Aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, do not touch contracts of other coins!

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