After the release of the US non-farm payrolls in August, what truly sounded was the revaluation bell for interest rates and safe-haven assets. According to data cited in Goldman Sachs' report on September 7, August saw a net job addition of 162,000 people, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Against the backdrop of energy disruptions due to the US-Iran war and high inflation, this unexpectedly strong employment report directly weakened the market's fantasies of interest rate cuts in the short term, leading to an increase in real yields on US Treasury bonds. While the interest rate curve was forced to redraw a scenario of "staying high for longer," Goldman Sachs went against the trend by upgrading its rating on gold to "overweight," setting a 12-month target price of 5275, and emphasizing that gold can still perform relatively well even in an environment of rising real yields. This is a systematic response to the current combination: rising interest rates, leading commodity prices, and the geopolitical impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has driven up European gas prices. Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone's annual inflation rate in August has reached 3.3%, a nearly three-year high, significantly above the European Central Bank's 2% target; according to media reports, the ECB is expected to implement its second interest rate hike since the outbreak of the US-Iran war this Thursday. Although it remains cautious about the subsequent path, it is also confirming a reality: the downward cycle of interest rates for major global currencies is being delayed, raising the "risk-free return." In this combination of interest rates and geopolitics, gold has been re-established by mainstream institutions as an "overweight" safe-haven asset, while historically sensitive assets like BTC and ETH—oscillating between "digital gold" and "high-beta tech assets" narratives—must confront a core issue: how will the risk preference and pricing framework for crypto assets be rewritten when interest rates continue to rise and wars drive up energy and inflation?
Jobs Surpassing Expectations Weigh on Rate Cut Bets
The combination of 162,000 net new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate in August provided a solid numerical support for the narrative that "the economy remains resilient." Goldman Sachs' report pointed out that this unexpected data directly weakened market bets on short-term interest rate cuts: with inflation not yet fully suppressed and employment remaining strong, the Federal Reserve has more reason to maintain or even extend its hawkish stance. The interest rate path was thus redrawn—from “quickly entering the interest cut channel” to “staying high for longer,” with the risk-free return rate moving upwards, and real yields on US Treasury bonds increasing, becoming the new pricing anchor. For all assets supported by future cash flow stories, every increase in the discount rate is a direct scissor to valuations.
Along this chain, risk assets faced a shared metric: high-valued growth stocks felt pressure first, followed by those categorized as "high-beta tech" sectors, and then BTC and ETH, which have oscillated between the narratives of "digital gold" and "high-beta tech assets" over the past few years. Historical experience has provided a reference—during periods when expectations for interest rate hikes or cuts are delayed, they tend to demonstrate higher sensitivity and greater volatility to changes in interest rates and dollar liquidity. As expectations for rate cuts cool and risk-free returns rise, funds reassess the "necessity of bearing volatility," pulling away from high-beta tech and crypto exposures, and shifting towards tangible assets such as gold and commodities, as well as more defensive allocations, which is a rational choice in this round of repricing, and this change in preference itself may become a key macro variable suppressing the valuation elasticity of BTC and ETH.
Energy Prices Soar from Hormuz Leading to Gold Strengthening Against the Trend
After the outbreak of the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which was originally just a narrow "bottleneck" in shipping routes, it instantly became the starting point for global asset pricing. Media and research reports almost unanimously view this blockade as the source of the current surge in energy prices, with European gas prices leading in cross-asset performance over the past three months, and Eurozone inflation rising to an annual rate of 3.3% by August 2026, notably exceeding the European Central Bank's 2% target. In a post-war environment, the ECB is forced to consider a second rate hike, concerned that energy shocks could lead to second-round impacts on wages and broader prices. This concern itself has incorporated "geopolitical risks + inflation expectations" into the global pricing model: rates must go up, yet energy and commodities keep climbing under geopolitical premiums, prompting funds to reassess their balance sheets against this combination of risks.
The snapshot provided by Goldman Sachs' report reflects the market's direct vote on this chain: commodities have led overall gains over the past three months, with European gas prices strengthened by the Hormuz situation, while gold remains strong against the headwinds of the unexpectedly strong US non-farm payrolls and rising real yields, viewed as the core of the safe-haven basket. Goldman Sachs raised its rating on gold to "overweight," setting a 12-month target price of 5275 (unit unspecified), reflecting a substantive willingness of institutions to increase their allocation weights towards tangible assets amidst geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns. This is a classic "hard asset transaction": some funds are pulling away from interest-rate-sensitive financial assets and migrating along the energy-commodity-gold path, while bringing in assets with scarcity narratives into the candidate pool. BTC, under the "digital gold" narrative, naturally falls into this basket, while ETH oscillates between "high-beta tech assets" and equity-type risks. Ultimately, which assets are seen as inflation-resistant and geoeconomically robust, and which are categorized as risk assets needing to bear valuation discounts for high rates, will determine the flow and hierarchy of crypto funds in this round of global repricing.
Interest Rates Rising Amidst Stagflation Shadows
In the trader's macro framework, the current scene is no longer a simple "rate hike cycle"; it is beginning to resemble a "stagflation" profile: on one side, the unexpectedly strong US non-farm employment in August and the unemployment rate still at 4.1% lead Goldman Sachs to judge that hopes for short-term rate cuts are suppressed and real yields on US Treasury bonds continue to rise; on the other side, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a rise in energy prices, pushing Eurozone inflation up to an annual rate of 3.3% by August 2026, far above the ECB's 2% target. Rising interest rates ought to discount all risk assets, but the ECB is also forced to conduct its second post-war rate hike this Thursday, while worrying about the second-round effects of energy shocks on wages and broader prices—this combination of "rates going up, prices rising too, but growth being dragged down by geopolitics and costs" reflects a stagflation scenario where funds feel the need to redefine the boundaries of risk and safe havens.
In such a macro script, Goldman Sachs' upgrade of gold to "overweight" and emphasizing its safe-haven and inflation-resistance qualities means a forced opening of a pricing channel prioritizing "hard assets" on top of traditional rate headwinds. The question is, will BTC be classified with gold, or be thrown back to the Nasdaq side: in the past few macro phases, it has benefited as "digital gold" from inflation hedging demands, but it has also been pressured alongside growth stocks during rate hike cycles. Current funds often split into two perspectives when reconstructing positions—when BTC is included in the basket of gold, oil, and commodities, it tends to use spot as a long-term foundational allocation, using futures for cross-asset price spread and hedging rate volatility; when BTC and ETH are perceived as high-beta tech assets, there is a tendency to compress spot exposure and amplify futures and options leverage, employing options to give the portfolio a "high-rate discount." Because ETH resembles a growth equity target more, it is more likely to be included in high-volatility derivatives trades in this structure, while whether BTC can be consistently locked in the "hard asset" basket will directly determine its term structure, volatility surface, and whether it gains a premium or continues to endure valuation compression under rising rates combined with stagflation shadows.
ECB Held Hostage by Energy Inflation
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed European gas prices to the forefront, raising the Eurozone's annual inflation rate to 3.3% by August 2026, significantly above the 2% policy target. This inflation does not stem from local demand but rather from overflowing energy shocks, pressuring the ECB to implement a second rate hike this Thursday in the post-war environment following the outbreak of the US-Iran war. The hikes aim to suppress the prices inflated by energy, yet policymakers are also concerned that too much tightening could push the already energy-cost-squeezed real economy into recession, especially as the "second-round effects" they mention—linkages between wages and broader prices—have yet to truly manifest by the time of reporting. This passive rate hike means that Eurozone assets must simultaneously discount both inflation and growth risks, compressing the valuation room for stocks and bonds, naturally shifting risk preferences towards defense and reducing local tolerance for high-volatility assets (including on-chain assets).
In the global context of rising rates, and increasing energy and commodity prices, historically capital has often concentrated in dollar assets and global safe-haven hard assets, while the current changes in euro and dollar interest rate differentials and exchange rates are directly rewriting the way European investors view BTC and ETH. Since BTC and ETH are primarily priced in dollars, when the euro weakens under the pressure of energy inflation and passive rate hikes, European funds holding dollar-priced on-chain positions face a dual constraint of currency depreciation and high rates: on one hand, local cash rates rise, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing crypto assets; on the other hand, if the euro falls against the dollar, holding dollar-priced BTC and ETH gains the properties of both overseas assets and currency hedges. The result is that some investors may increase their holdings of dollar assets and allocate BTC and ETH through dollar-anchored on-chain channels, treating them as tools for cross-border hedging against energy inflation and euro depreciation, while others, more conservative funds, choose to contract local crypto positions and cede risk budgets to gold and dollar bonds, forcing European crypto capital to redefine its boundaries of risk and safe havens under the triple pressures of interest differentials, exchange rates, and energy inflation.
The Next War and Peace of the Crypto Market
This shock is being taken seriously by the market because three core variables are being repriced simultaneously: first, the interest rate path. The unexpectedly strong performance of 162,000 jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate in August has clearly weakened fantasies of short-term rate cuts according to Goldman Sachs’ report, and real yields on US Treasury bonds are rising; Eurozone inflation has risen to 3.3% in August, forcing the ECB to conduct its second rate hike since the outbreak of the US-Iran war this Thursday, with the global interest rate curve lifting overall in the post-war environment. Second, energy and commodity prices. The closures of the Strait of Hormuz and the US-Iran war are seen as the core sources of the current rise in energy prices, with commodities leading gains over the last three months, and European gas prices significantly heightened due to the Hormuz situation, with inflation expectations being re-anchored above cost shocks. Third, the geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs still upgraded gold to "overweight" under a hawkish macro environment, assigning a 12-month target price of 5275 and emphasizing that gold is strengthening against the backdrop of rising real yields, meaning institutions are willing to pay higher risk premiums for safety amidst wartime and tail risks. Under such a combination, the crypto market's "war and peace" will more depend on how the narrative's dominance shifts between different scenarios: if the Federal Reserve and the ECB release stronger tightening signals in the coming weeks, BTC and ETH are more likely to be treated as high-beta risk assets, leading to a contraction in on-chain capital and leveraging, with a preference for short-term trading, cross-market arbitrage, and options hedging; if tensions in Hormuz persist and energy and gold continue to rise within Goldman’s “overweight” framework, some global capital will incorporate BTC into the same safe-haven basket as gold, reviving the "digital gold" narrative, while ETH will be viewed more as a network asset bearing risk premiums, as cross-border on-chain funds use dollar-priced channels to hedge inflation and exchange rate risks tied to Eurozone and wartime assets; if the conflict eases, energy prices fall, and central banks remain cautious about further hikes, the interest rate path may shift from unidirectional rises to “peaking expected,” allowing funds to reconsider mid- to long-term positions, with BTC and ETH finding a new balance between safety and growth, and the on-chain structure returning from defense to trend and structural allocation. Standing on September 8, 2026, what truly needs to be closely monitored are the next policy guidance from the Federal Reserve and ECB, the movements of gold and broader commodities after this wave of energy shocks, and the evolution of the US-Iran war and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, as these three lines will determine whether crypto assets continue to be treated as interest-rate-sensitive marginal risk chips or regain pricing dominance in the global rearrangement of hard assets and safe-haven narratives.
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