In August, non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far exceeding expectations. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 4.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike in September rose to about 58%–60%. U.S. stocks are under pressure, while cryptocurrency remains relatively resistant to declines.
Current market situation: BTC 78,400–78,800, approximately down 1% over 24 hours; ETH $2,465–$2,475, continuing in a range; ZEC fell from around $1,250 over the weekend to $1,125–$1,135, with a weekly gain still over 30%. Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF (ZCSH) has been launched, becoming a core channel for the revaluation of privacy coins.
BTC
Resistance: $80,000, key lies at $81,000–$82,300 (high point of this round).
Support: $78,000 is the short-term dividing line, if lost, watch $76,500–$77,000, and further down to $75,500.
Judgment: Still in a high-level fluctuation, not a trend breakdown. Only consider a weakness if the daily line closes below $78,000 with increased volume.
ETH
Resistance: $2,510–$2,550.
Support: $2,430–$2,450, further down $2,330–$2,350.
Judgment: Follow the rise not the fall, lacking independent catalysts. If BTC holds, ETH will likely continue to fluctuate; if BTC breaks down, ETH is more likely to hit $2,430 first.
ZEC
Resistance: $1,180–$1,200, previous high $1,250.
Support: $1,100–$1,120 as the first defense, $1,000 is the emotional threshold, further down to $880–$900.
Judgment: Moving averages are still bullish, but after a short-term overbought, it enters a "who will take over" phase. Hold positions view $1,100; new positions wait for a pullback to $1,000–$1,100 with low volume, do not chase $1,130.
Strategy
Overall market outlook is to defend at $78,000, with flexibility in diversifying. Do not short BTC unless it breaks, ETH follows, and ZEC only trades on pullbacks, not chasing highs. With the FOMC approaching, first reduce leverage.
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