The decline in Iran's oil revenue may be a reason for increasing attacks on the U.S.

The amount of crude oil stored outside the Persian Gulf has decreased from 90 million barrels to 29 million barrels, a reduction of about 68%. Oil revenues account for about one-third of Iran's national budget, and the continued decline in this income will put increasing pressure on its finances and foreign exchange.

This batch of inventory consists of oil that has already been transported beyond the blockade and can still be sold to China, but the U.S. naval blockade makes it difficult to export new crude oil. Now, oil inside the blockade is piling up, while the oil available for sale outside is dwindling. Iran can still rely on consuming its inventory to raise funds, but this situation cannot be maintained indefinitely.

Therefore, even if international oil prices rise, it may not alleviate the pressure on Iran. The quantity being sold is reduced, and collecting payments becomes challenging; more expensive oil does not necessarily mean receiving more money. Government spending and imported goods require funding, and with reduced oil revenue, stabilizing the rial exchange rate will become more difficult.

This leads me to believe that the decrease in oil revenue is one of the important reasons for Iran's recent escalation of attacks on U.S. forces. Iran hopes to increase risks through attacks on U.S. ships, compelling the U.S. to bear higher military and economic costs, thereby forcing the U.S. to make concessions on the blockade issue.

Iranian senior officials have also mentioned the desire to influence U.S. government decision-making before the mid-term elections in November through inflationary pressures. Thus, in practical terms, although Iran claims to be unconcerned about domestic issues, the troubles it faces are not necessarily less than those during Trump's time.

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