Today's core conclusion I will briefly explain: The oil tanker in Hormuz was attacked, the US increased sanctions on Iran, the Revolutionary Guard threatened shipping, and geopolitical risks have been escalating, but gold fell instead of rising to 4345, indicating that the traditional logic of "buying gold for safety" is failing. Meanwhile, US stocks fell broadly, but AI computing power, optical communication, and chip stocks surged against the trend. OpenAI has solved a top mathematical problem, and safe-haven funds are shifting from metals to this new track of computing power. Currently, the big pie is 78800, the second pie is 2496, and gold is 4380, all three varieties are in the rebound repair stage after significant declines, but the big trend has not yet reversed; before the CPI data is released, the main operation should be range-based.

Brothers, the journey in the world is not afraid of distance, and we encounter like-minded individuals along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiang Ye.

1. Macroeconomic Interpretation: War Cannot Push Up Gold, Safe-Haven Funds are Switching Tracks

From September 8 to 9, the situation in the Middle East suddenly escalated. Near Hormuz, a small Iranian oil tanker was attacked by US missiles, and the US Treasury immediately announced a new round of sanctions involving 36 targets, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatened the withdrawal of tankers from Kuwait and Bahrain's ports.

According to traditional logic, a geopolitical escalation should push up gold: once the Strait of Hormuz becomes high risk, oil and freight prices will fluctuate, and funds instinctively find a metallic defensive line. However, the actual trend is completely the opposite — gold fell to around 4350 between September 8 and 9, with a daily decline of about 1.3%. During the window of intertwining missiles, sanctions, and attack threats, gold behaved like an old armor that funds actively put down.

On the other hand, the three major US stock indices collectively closed lower, but there was a distinct gap within the market: Intel's stock rose about 9% due to plans to increase PC CPU prices by about 10%, the optical communication sector Lumentum rose over 11%, and computing power leasing CoreWeave rose over 11%, while NVIDIA fell about 2%. Funds did not simply retreat; instead, they switched from leading stocks to the foundational layer of computing power within the AI industry chain.

At almost the same time, OpenAI announced breakthroughs in its next-generation internal model on a top-level problem that had troubled the mathematics community for decades: the pass rate for selected open mathematical problems is about 48%, nearly three times the maximum level of the previous generation model, utilizing about 10,000 AI agents for collaborative computation, taking about 88 hours. The leap in technical capabilities has added fuel to the story that "computing power is the new gold."

My Judgment: This is not a random noise of a one-day market but a concentrated manifestation of preference structures. In an environment where geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty coexist, the pure "safe-haven symbol" of gold is beginning to weaken, while computing power infrastructure that can narrate growth stories and stands on the narrative of technological breakthroughs is endowed with new safe-haven functions — to preserve assets from being swallowed by macro fluctuations and to bet on a technological paradigm leap.

However, one risk point must be reminded: the temporary failure of gold does not mean that the risks in the Middle East have dissipated. The vulnerabilities in energy and shipping around the Strait of Hormuz are still present; once sentiment shifts from "betting on future computing power" to recalibrating reality conflicts, the current price structure may just be a transitional form before a more intense repricing.

This Friday's CPI data is the next key node; it is highly probable that the range will maintain oscillation before the data is released, rather than a clean one-sided movement.

2. Big Pie Range: Rebound Repair After a Significant Decline, 77600-79500 is the Core Defense Band

Prices have fallen from a high of 80559 to a low of 77620, currently rebounding to around 78800.

1 Hour Level: TD Up:5, rebounding from the low of 77620, the upward count has progressed to 5. Prices are stabilizing above the Bollinger middle band at 78556. After the MACD golden cross, the green bars continue to shrink, indicating that the short sellers are running out of strength, and the rebound structure has been established. However, the KDJ has already gone too high, indicating that there is a short-term need for a pullback due to overbought conditions; don’t chase high prices.

15 Minute Level: TD Down:2, a correction has started from the high of 79485, just reaching 2. The prices have fallen below the Bollinger middle band at 78951, with MACD red bars shrinking, and the short-term correction is still ongoing.

▎Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: 79200-79500 (15 minutes prior high + 1 hour Bollinger upper band)

• Strong Resistance Zone: 80000-80500 (near previous high of 80559)

▎Support Levels

• Core Support: 78200-77600 (1 hour Bollinger lower band + current low of 77620)

• Strong Support: 77000

Operational Reference:

• Low Long

  : Stabilize after a pullback in the 77600-78200 range, establish a closing stop-loss K-line, lightly enter long, stop loss at 77300, target 79200→79500

• High Short

  : If it rebounds to the 79200-79500 zone and shows signs of stagnation, with a long upper shadow or engulfing bearish candle, lightly short, stop loss at 79800, target 78200→77600

• Note

  : The 1 hour rebound structure is established, but the big trend has not yet reversed; don’t chase long when rebounding to the resistance area, focus primarily on shorting, with some long positions as a supplement. All positions should be lightly held with strict stop losses before the CPI data is released.
  

  

3. Second Pie Range: Stronger than Big Pie, 2430-2547 is the Core Defense Band

ETH is currently at 2496, and its overall trend is significantly stronger than the big pie, having consistently stabilized above the 1 hour Bollinger middle band after rebounding from the low of 2430, unlike the big pie which weakened first.

1 Hour Level: TD Up:5, rebounding from the low of 2430, the upward count has progressed to 5. Prices are stabilizing above the Bollinger middle band at 2484. MACD red bars are still active, and bullish momentum has not broken. The KDJ is neutral with no extreme overbought conditions and still has upward space.

15 Minute Level: TD Down:1, a correction has started from the high of 2508, just reaching 1. Prices are still above the Bollinger middle band at 2490, with a very small MACD red bar and both long and short momentum being weak, indicating a high-level oscillating consolidation.

▎Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: 2510-2530 (15 minutes prior high of 2508 + 1 hour Bollinger upper band at 2503)

• Strong Resistance Zone: 2547-2560 (near previous high of 2547)

▎Support Levels

• Core Support: 2460-2430 (1 hour Bollinger lower band 2464 + current low of 2430)

• Strong Support: 2400

Operational Reference:

• Low Long

  : Stabilize after a pullback in the 2460-2475 range, lightly enter long, stop loss at 2445, target 2510→2530

• High Short

  : If it rebounds to the 2510-2530 range and stagnates with divergence signals, lightly short, stop loss at 2550, target 2475→2460

• Note

  : ETH is stronger than the big pie, prioritizing low longs over the big pie, but do not chase above 2530 and focus on high shorts in the resistance area. ETH has greater volatility than the big pie, so contract positions should be lighter, allowing enough space for stop losses.
  

  

4. Gold Range: Oversold Rebound but Big Trend is Bearish, 4345-4440 is the Core Defense Band

Gold is currently at 4380, having started an oversold rebound from the low of 4345, but the overall trend is still bearish, and it is mainly focused on high shorts when rebounding to the resistance area.

1 Hour Level: TD Up:3, rebounding from the low of 4345, the upward count has progressed to 3. Prices are still below the Bollinger middle band at 4386, indicating the rebound is not strong enough. The MACD green bar is very small, indicating a stalemate between bullish and bearish forces. The KDJ is diverging upwards from a low position, indicating that the rebound momentum is still present.

15 Minute Level: TD Up:1, rebounding from the low of 4345. Prices have now stabilized above the Bollinger middle band at 4365, and the MACD red bar has increased, indicating strong short-term rebound momentum. However, the KDJ is already extremely overbought, indicating a possible short-term pullback at any moment; do not chase long at this position.

▎Resistance Levels

• First Resistance: 4385-4410 (1 hour Bollinger middle band at 4386 + previous resistance)

• Strong Resistance Zone: 4440-4460 (top and bottom conversion pressure zone)

▎Support Levels

• Core Support: 4345-4330 (current low of 4345 + key support)

• Strong Support: 4288 (previous low)

Operational Reference:

• High Short (Main Idea)

  : If it rebounds to the 4385-4410 range and faces pressure, lightly short, stop loss at 4425, target 4345→4330

• If the 4-hour entity stabilizes above 4410

  : Move the short position to 4440-4460 to enter again, stop loss at 4475, target 4400→4360

• Low Long (Only for very short term)

  : Stabilize after a pullback in the 4345-4330 range, lightly speculate for a rebound, stop loss at 4315, target 4380→4400, fast in and out

• Key Observation

  : 4345 is the current low; if it holds, the oversold rebound will continue; if it effectively breaks below 4345, the space opens below, eye on 4288. The big trend for gold remains bearish; do not cling to long positions and prioritize high shorts when rebounding to the resistance area.

5. Summary

Currently, all three varieties are in the rebound repair stage after significant declines: the big pie has rebounded from 77620 to 78800, the 1-hour rebound structure is established but the big trend has not reversed; the second pie is stronger than the big pie, stabilizing above the 1-hour Bollinger middle band; gold has rebounded from 4345 but the 15-minute KDJ is already extremely overbought, indicating the big trend remains bearish.

Geopolitical risks still exist, but the logic of safe havens is changing; do not trade with the old routine of "war causes gold to rise." This Friday's CPI is a decisive event; it is highly probable that there will be range-based oscillation before the data is released.

Operational Thinking:

• For the big pie, consider low longs at 77600-78200, high shorts at 79200-79500

• For the second pie, consider low longs at 2460-2475, high shorts at 2510-2530

• For gold, focus on high shorts in the 4385-4410 range, and consider light longs in the 4345-4330 range for a rebound.

All positions should be lightly held with strict stop losses, and adjustments can be made in line with the trend after data release.

Interactive Topic: The escalation of war has led to a decline in gold; do you think safe-haven funds have really switched tracks? Let's discuss in the comments section.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is merely a technical logical deduction regarding the market and is for reference and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The financial market is highly volatile, and contract trading carries significant risks. Please trade rationally, strictly control your positions, and set stop losses; you bear the gains and losses.

Thank you to all family members for your trust and companionship; the market is ever-changing, and stable compounding is the key to longevity. I am Jiang Ye, see you next time.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。