After finishing the article yesterday, I remembered something my friends chatted with me about last weekend. Although several days have passed, I think the situation we discussed can be seen as a continuation of the viewpoints shared in yesterday's article. So sharing it now is still very meaningful.

On Sunday, a friend sent me a message saying that last Thursday or Friday he noticed a cryptocurrency called SHROOM and immediately bought it. But he didn't buy much, and later when the price surged by six to seven times, he sold it because he didn't quite understand it.

After reading this description, I thought about some viewpoints I shared in the previous article.

Let me first talk about my own experience:

I also noticed this cryptocurrency SHROOM last Friday but did not buy it. Because when I evaluated it with my current standards, I found that I couldn't determine whether its current model could be sustained, so I let it go.

As I understand it, the reason this cryptocurrency is experiencing strong momentum now is mainly because it can continuously attract liquidity under the current trend, which boosts both its TVL and market value.

This mechanism has been used in other DeFi projects before, but those projects that once utilized this mechanism later did not maintain their momentum and ultimately came to a halt.

Therefore, from a purely mechanical perspective, its sustainability is hard to judge.

Currently, the reason this mechanism can play a role in this project again is mainly due to the trend of cryptocurrency trading. But this is not a high barrier; other projects can easily imitate it. This project has not yet firmly established its ecological niche, and if other projects engage in some marketing or innovate to some extent, they could potentially outperform it.

So overall, I have doubts about its sustainability.

Perhaps in the future, when I can understand it better or am convinced of its sustainability, if the price is still within my acceptable range, I would feel it is fine even if its growth potential is not as high as it is now.

In my article on August 19, "Buffett's Two Sentences Reveal the Essence of Investment," I shared the following viewpoint:

“The controllable method of risk is to try with a very small amount of money. Even if you lose, it won’t hurt much, ......, but if you win, even if it’s not 100%, but let’s say you make 10 times, since the principal is small, the significance is still quite limited.”

In my article on July 17, "Heavy Investment in Certainty, Light Investment in Imagination | Q&A," I shared this viewpoint:

“Investing 5% is just a trial, a taste, a probing step, ......, such trial-based layouts are hard to achieve a significant leap in wealth.”

These two viewpoints express the dilemma of this investment approach.

As a normal person, just like what my friend experienced, the reasonable way to approach something one doesn't fully understand is to control the position and try with small funds.

If he had invested a large sum, I would have been quite worried. Because that would be gambling, not a trial.

However, even if he made money with such an approach, given the small principal, it would only be a small amount.

The reaction of my friend running away with a six or seven times return due to not understanding is actually quite a normal response.

A person’s actions regarding something they do not understand essentially rely on guessing. Since it relies on guessing, whether one makes ten times or one hundred times fundamentally comes down to 99% luck + 1% intuition.

And luck and intuition are very personal things that cannot be generalized to the average situation.

Therefore, in my friend's case, I feel that all his actions and results are entirely normal and quite reasonable.

Since they are normal and reasonable actions, there is nothing to regret.

In this experience, I believe the biggest highlight is not how much was earned or what cryptocurrency was discovered, but rather that I was closely monitoring the development of the crypto ecosystem and spotted this trend early on, participating in this process under manageable risk, which brought me new experiences, new feelings, and even a bit of excitement.

That is enough.

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